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October 2019 Weather Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feels like the talk of a torch October is in serious trouble looking at the extended. 

Honestly I would prefer it. Although today is pretty spectacular even at 58 degrees.  Nice getting the hoodie on for the Sat morning coffee and sandwich run at Bakers Dozen. I could live with this.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hopefully belly to belly is heard around 530 today. Definitely a different feel this year but who knows. We were all excited mid Novie last year......

I was sure we were going big last year and then December brought us all back to earth.....let’s hope this years more 1976 vs 2018.

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

How was 92/93, asking for a friend 

As epic as that year was, the 2nd half of December and a lot of January kind of sucked (though we did sneak in a solid warning event in January) ...obviously can't ignore the dec 11-12 storm but we stagnated for quite a while after that. Obviously things really picked up again in February and the epic March. 

 

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I was sure we were going big last year and then December brought us all back to earth.....let’s hope this years more 1976 vs 2018.

I remember being on Campus for my sophomore year at URI and skipping classes because I didn't want to walk in the brutal wind chills that winter. I skied a ton that year though,  still made a 3.2 , don't ask me how just showed up for tests and oral reports. Uncanny ability to skip class, ski, party until late and get up and take an exam I barely studied for. Lol good thing I went back as a older student and really studied and learned 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

As epic as that year was, the 2nd half of December and a lot of January kind of sucked (though we did sneak in a solid warning event in January) ...obviously can't ignore the dec 11-12 storm but we stagnated for quite a while after that. Obviously things really picked up again in February and the epic March. 

 

It sucked balls in SW RI without 12 92 and 3 93 being half sleet although March was pretty epic

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

My wife thinks I over reacted to James so I’ll reconsider my response.  I do think it’s a good idea to leave religion out of weather discussion on this bb.  

So James, I’ll reiterate that I’m cool with you and reacted to the religion stuff but as Steve stated it’s your right.

Many are anti political correctness and in some cases I agree but in general the concept is to try to avoid hurting people by ones words.

Beautiful autumn day today!  Summers over and winters on the way!

As I stated in my rebuttal, it was just an example, and might have been a poor example considering today's world and how fragile we can be as a society to any different beliefs.  I was just using God as an example, but you were right, I was not trying to be insensitive towards others.  So for that mix-up,  apologize and I will stick to weather discussions in this forum.

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10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Thanks for the well wishes everyone. Hopefully we can salvage at least a dry ceremony... supposed to be held outdoors 

I’m with ya on a dry next Saturday too TBlizz...your wedding(congratulations pal), and my sisters surprise 50th Birthday party too, and her party is outside under a cabana as well.  So hoping it’s dry for both our events...??? 

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

My wife thinks I over reacted to James so I’ll reconsider my response.  I do think it’s a good idea to leave religion out of weather discussion on this bb.  

So James, I’ll reiterate that I’m cool with you and reacted to the religion stuff but as Steve stated it’s your right.

Many are anti political correctness and in some cases I agree but in general the concept is to try to avoid hurting people by ones words.

Beautiful autumn day today!  Summers over and winters on the way!

What about Rev Kev?

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

As epic as that year was, the 2nd half of December and a lot of January kind of sucked (though we did sneak in a solid warning event in January) ...obviously can't ignore the dec 11-12 storm but we stagnated for quite a while after that. Obviously things really picked up again in February and the epic March. 

 

Give me front-loaded epicosity rather than a Feb/March deal.

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feels like the talk of a torch October is in serious trouble looking at the extended. 

I'm actually 50/50 on a snow chance between the 20th and perhaps Novie 10th .. ( obviousy the ending dates are hugely skewed..)

Comparing signals?  I'd say this is about half that which preceded the October snow event in 2012, when it was some two to three weeks out in the tele's back in those faithful run-up days to week(s) ahead. I was going to pull a trigger on a thread specific to that interval, yesterday, but having waited for the teleconnector output, I decided to hold off.  Half a signal in October can make a huge bustable difference!

The problem is the handling the EPO, and to some lesser degree the NAO domain space... In 2012, the Pacific had more coherently modeled -WPO --> -EPO relay ( northern arc of the Basin) during a modeled 7-8-1 robust MJO WAVE underneath, and so the solid AB phase signaled was well correlated... ( that means the meridional flow type) This time WPO-EPO has been off and on.  What both eras did/do have is a very clear and coherent and pretty much amazing phase reversal in the PNA; recovering some 3 or 4 SD in every member is a whopper modality. That usually comes with a paradigm shift to put it nicely.  I'm also impressed with the MJO crumbling up in the Phase 8-1-2 in both the GFS/Euro and their ensemble means.  

The PNA/MJO is thus a very potent constructive wave interference pattern; the 'synergistic' result could send the operational runs into more of a western ridge, eastern trough couplet than even the models show at this time, ..when that two-or-so week span gets going.   I just don't know if the EPO will cooperate... if it does, this has the same tele prominence as 2012 did in my mind - and it could still happen ;)

It's also possible the PNA/MJO synergy ends up driving a -EPO given time/correction forthcoming... The PNA tends to relay back and forth between that index and back.. +PNA --> -EPO/neutral PNA --> -PNA tends to be the cycle there...  but the ending -PNA can be transitory prior to reload - in big years or cyclic +PNA's that takes place.  

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs also shows the same thing

hey... it was just a suggestion lol

Nah, I still would suggest that is the case. There are peculiarities about that whole way in which that sets up, so given that it is beyond D6 and is strange ... typically that doesn't end well for deterministic efforts in the field of operational Meteorology.

 

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