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October 2019 Weather Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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Certainly the GFS is showing a +PNA with some sort of -AO/ potentially neutral to negative NAO presence.  While there is no real presence at the 384 hour window of a Greenland ridge, there is a strong central North Atlantic Ridge northeast of Bermuda.  The model wants to bring the tropical cyclone into Maine it would appear extrapolating outward.  Never get sucked into the day 16 outlook by any model, but before then the EURO/GFS/and ensembles for both models shows the presence of a strong block with the potential for either a tropical cyclone or stacked low getting blocked southeast of Atlantic Canada and Nova Scotia and hundreds of miles off the East Coast of the US.  This is an interesting setup, just not sold on it.  Just some eye candy to hook us for the next set of model runs.

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When there is anomalous blocking on multiple models at long ranges that is when I would certainly weigh LR depictions of a significant east coast phasing event . Lot more wiggle room with regard to not needing perfect short wave time w an anomalous block 

the AO ensembles are forecast to go strongly negative (-2/-3)by the 15’th ..thou we shall see how Stable that is next few days  and the PNA has more of a consensus on a rise from -2 to 1 in that period 

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1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I only said in my statement that has everyone off kilter this afternoon, is that there was no other reason than pride for the reason that Jesus died.  Just because they didn't believe what He was teaching, He died because of the betrayal of a friend of Jesus.  He turned Him in because of the reward he was offered.  Jesus was killed for a man's wanting of money.  If you don't believe, I personally have nothing against you, you have that free will to choose to believe or not.  I was simply pointing out, that the Savior for many people in this world was ridiculed constantly and killed because He taught something different.  In no way, would I ever compare myself to God or His son, but I am saying, who would I be if I was to believe I didn't deserve people who didn't agree with my beliefs or my way towards success.  The greatest people of history always had people who didn't believe in them or agree with their teachings or speeches.  It is in my will to be humble and always believe I can do better each day I have on this planet.  I am no more special than the next man to my left,  or right.  If people were offended, I am sorry, that was never an intention.  I am sorry, I probably didn't explain what I meant in a more clear concise way.

I wish I were so confident of events and interpersonal interactions between friends and enemies over 2000 years ago.....

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Ha I had the same thought freezing my ass off in the base area at 42F.

There is literally no reason for the temperature to be between 32F and 60F during the daytime.  Either snow or be shorts weather, lol.

That’s how I feel. From AC to heat in days. Doing what I can not to have the heat on, but not sure how long it will go. 

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10 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I must say...definitely have a hankering for an 1804 snowicane. 

We pray every day 

there is zero percent I would not travel to an area from Catskills to N NH to experience that 

heck I would even stay at Snowshoe ... where else can u find a village at 4800’ ..on this upside down mountain. I imagine in the right circumstances snowshoe village sees unbelievable blizzards being at Nearly 5k!

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22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We pray every day 

there is zero percent I would not travel to an area from Catskills to N NH to experience that 

heck I would even stay at Snowshoe ... where else can u find a village at 4800’ ..on this upside down mountain. I imagine in the right circumstances snowshoe village sees unbelievable blizzards being at Nearly 5k!

Imagine 40" of paste driven by 100mph winds

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Page turned as scheduled 

Pan-continental thickness correction is complete. 

We’ll get warm days here and there but certainly not sustained. Even the south has had a thickness evacuation ... highly unlikely they’ll return to anything close to what they just went through

50/50 cold signal out there
 

 

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11 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Good. Let's tag and bag some mosquitoes.

Agreed on the sentiment. Not sure it’ll be enough though.


Utterly prism clear unabated light wind sun and 63 super adiabatic low levels tomorrow and not as chilly tomorrow night then two mild days. Not likely enough

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