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October 2019 Weather Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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1 minute ago, rclab said:

Jay, I found the old Eastern weather forums while using Microsoft’s original web tv it was their attempt to drag us into, what was then, the technical present. I considered myself old then and that was, at your young age, before you knew  what “it” was probably used for. As always....

:lol: 

I honestly don't know what I'd do without you guys. I've learned so much over the years. It's been fun.

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A lot of people have back issues.  I never had issues until one day in my 20s my back decided to spasm on me.  Worst pain I had ever had until that point.  I slowly figured out what happened.  Over the years it's repeated itself with varying degrees of severity.  The one thing that has consistently kept them at bay is stretching.  At least three days a week I do stretches and as long as I keep them up and go no more than three weeks without doing them, I'm good.  Just know that it's part of aging...

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

 

I keep a big rock in front of the coop door overnight. This morning I picked it up to toss it on the ground and my back said "not today". It felt like someone took an axe across my back. Nice way to start a day off and 3 day weekend.

 

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Brian ... I recently had a 30 hour back spasm episode in my lower back...  A coworker was out two days the week prior with a similar condition - short duration but borderline severe.   She an I were considering if there something possibly pathogenic about it -   just thought I'd mention.   

I am prescribed a variety of things for my laundry list of back issues. Doesn't do a damn thing when the 5 or 6 flareups a year start. I've been battling a flare up for close to a month and a half now. 6 trips to the chiropractor this month alone. It's a big help. I can only imagine what kind of shape I'll be in at 50. 

 

The flare up pain I had in two of my most recent episodes has been obscene. I pulled my back golfing last summer. Played through it. Got home and took a nap. Woke up on my side. Couldn't move out of the position. It took me an hour of screaming, crying, yelling to go to the bathroom for the first time. I went to the hospital the next day. I was in so much pain my blood pressure was through the roof.

There's days I don't even want to get out of bed. Or I'm in a bad mood and a ton of pain and I let it affect the way I treat other people. It's frustrating, but you just have to keep going.

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cept he never said that. He was referring to during Jesus's time. He was not talking about anyone not believing in Jesus today he was talking about them killing him.

 

Jesus Christ had people who wanted him dead for the sole purpose of being stupid, the detractors against God's son were stupid

Many have been killed based on the bold and its still happening.  Just elevating awareness.  Like I said, I have no ill will towards James unless he steals my snow.

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8 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

 

I am prescribed a variety of things for my laundry list of back issues. Doesn't do a damn thing when the 5 or 6 flareups a year start. I've been battling a flare up for close to a month and a half now. 6 trips to the chiropractor this month alone. It's a big help. I can only imagine what kind of shape I'll be in at 50. 

 

The flare up pain I had in two of my most recent episodes has been obscene. I pulled my back golfing last summer. Played through it. Got home and took a nap. Woke up on my side. Couldn't move out of the position. It took me an hour of screaming, crying, yelling to go to the bathroom for the first time. I went to the hospital the next day. I was in so much pain my blood pressure was through the roof.

There's days I don't even want to get out of bed. Or I'm in a bad mood and a ton of pain and I let it affect the way I treat other people. It's frustrating, but you just have to keep going.

Oh man can I relate other than the mood stuff. I kept going until I couldn't 

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Every once in while in early to mid autumn a model run saunters out an extended range run that attempts to do this ... 

gfs.jpg.00029605d9d616f3136722fafe2c1ec6.jpg 

Usually it's the GGEM ...  and to be fair... Sandy was often depicted this way some 12 days before it's legacy unfolded - I think that was the first time a dream-range vision of the GGEM dropping of a full bird cane into a cold core tropospheric well actually kinda sort happened.. .   I give the GFS plenty of latitude given that this is far too far into the future than any model should be allowed to run ... but it certainly makes for interesting cinema from the 12z, huh - 

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2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Whenever i try to do to much i pay dearly for it, And when the spasms start that's a real treat too like someone keeps stabbing you with a hot knife in L4 for a day or so, That's when me and the ice pack get real interment .

Couple years ago I grabbed a bag of salt at work, strong arming it with one arm, but at the same time grabbing it from the corner of room behind some other barrels. Bam! Pulled an intercostal rib muscle. I've done it before in the gym but not as bad. I could barely walk and if I twisted my torso or moved the wrong way, it nearly brought me to my knees. I was close to crying it hurt so bad. Went to the ER hoping they could inject some numbing meds, but they did nothing. Said to ice it. Took a few days to get better.

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Every once in while in early to mid autumn a model run saunters out an extended range run that attempts to do this ... 

gfs.jpg.00029605d9d616f3136722fafe2c1ec6.jpg 

Usually it's the GGEM ...  and to be fair... Sandy was often depicted this way some 12 days before it's legacy unfolded - I think that was the first time a dream-range vision of the GGEM dropping of a full bird cane into a cold core tropospheric well actually kinda sort happened.. .   I give the GFS plenty of latitude given that this is far too far into the future than any model should be allowed to run ... but it certainly makes for interesting cinema from the 12z, huh - 

I'd say we are "due" for something like this .. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1804_Snow_hurricane

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12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The GFS has been playing  peek-a-boo the last several days with tropical development in the Gulf or Caribbean > 240 hrs out

it's been doing that for the last couple of weeks ever 2nd or 3rd run.. 

Honestly ..it seems like I see that them in extended range every year.  It may be just a modeling artifact of letting these tool run infinitum out to the edge of nowhere and then expecting them to appropriately handle a full fuel tank ( tropics ) of energy 'nough to power the Global grid for 100 years or more

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38 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

I'd say we are "due" for something like this .. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1804_Snow_hurricane

OH ... it's possible..   sure.   Not just because historical annuls actually have cases where > 50% likeness took place... But, truth be told, if it were physically impossible, the model would not have it  ;) 

( That winking isn't meant for you ..just the royal setting... ) Anyway, my point is, the peregrinations of the runs way out in time are because of quasi-fractal effects, but at the end of the day ...the processing is still railed along by mathematical/geo-physical principles. If the runs were engaging in solutions that were mathematically impossible ..heh, that'd be one helluva of forecast model, huh - 

It's always a matter of when something is going to happen "like what" we see in one of these fantasy movies, and also.. considering that in order for something like that to happen, too many things have to take place to "cause the air-plane to crash," that is why they are always rarer than the norm. Duh. 

That's all code of very very low odds

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39 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Couple years ago I grabbed a bag of salt at work, strong arming it with one arm, but at the same time grabbing it from the corner of room behind some other barrels. Bam! Pulled an intercostal rib muscle. I've done it before in the gym but not as bad. I could barely walk and if I twisted my torso or moved the wrong way, it nearly brought me to my knees. I was close to crying it hurt so bad. Went to the ER hoping they could inject some numbing meds, but they did nothing. Said to ice it. Took a few days to get better.

Becoming more and more of an issue. People who actually need pain relief don't get it. But shooting up heroin in the open is completely normal on Mass Ave. Oh ya, but vaping is banned.

 

 

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Also ...I've read several attempted reanalysis type frame-works on that 1804 thing in the past ... To me, it leaps out as an extra-tropical bomb that infused/engulfed an unusually pithy latent heat source/extreme baroclinicity evolved quickly because of it, a bit beyond the standard Norwegian model low - 

Think 'rogue wave' like, when these more typically vying parametric sources seem to actually super-impose, super-constructively..  Super storm '93 is one.... Sandy is likely another example. As is 1804.. I don't really believe that a hurricane actually had concentric snow bands however - 

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5 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Becoming more and more of an issue. People who actually need pain relief don't get it. But shooting up heroin in the open is completely normal on Mass Ave. Oh ya, but vaping is banned.

 

 

As usual when the Govt steps in they over correct. I have not taking any opioids despite some crazy pain for 2 years. But I do know some people have low tolerance to pain and also are in constant chronic pain. They need those powerful drugs. I just eat a cookie,

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I only said in my statement that has everyone off kilter this afternoon, is that there was no other reason than pride for the reason that Jesus died.  Just because they didn't believe what He was teaching, He died because of the betrayal of a friend of Jesus.  He turned Him in because of the reward he was offered.  Jesus was killed for a man's wanting of money.  If you don't believe, I personally have nothing against you, you have that free will to choose to believe or not.  I was simply pointing out, that the Savior for many people in this world was ridiculed constantly and killed because He taught something different.  In no way, would I ever compare myself to God or His son, but I am saying, who would I be if I was to believe I didn't deserve people who didn't agree with my beliefs or my way towards success.  The greatest people of history always had people who didn't believe in them or agree with their teachings or speeches.  It is in my will to be humble and always believe I can do better each day I have on this planet.  I am no more special than the next man to my left,  or right.  If people were offended, I am sorry, that was never an intention.  I am sorry, I probably didn't explain what I meant in a more clear concise way.

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23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Watch that last week of October. Strong current super high tides. Not saying there will a superstorm but that’s our period when we do get some doozies

Amazing how that happens with such regularity.   There has to be a greater than 50% chance around each Halloween (say a week on each end) that we get some decent wind/rain event.  

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