Spanks45 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 32.2, so close...wind didn't go calm until after 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Are you torching Helloween now? It’s close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: It’s close. Sell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Spanks45 said: 32.2, so close...wind didn't go calm until after 4 What’s your elevation neighbor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sell I buy. We -PNA. Maybe -NAO gives us ridging to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 GYX discussion this morning talked of some colder CWA sites flirting with 20, but P&C for my town says 34. I'll bid at 10° below that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Depends on which guidance is correct. Euro/EPS is trending toward dropping everything into the west and southwest while the GEFS and Canadians do not so they are frigid near Halloween. EPS have higher skill at this range so you'd hedge a bit there. But they've also been awful a couple times already this fall overplaying warmth up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 19, 2019 Author Share Posted October 19, 2019 I wouldn’t buy anything for a week or so. But my hunch is Slightly AN for the week around Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Depends on which guidance is correct. Euro/EPS is trending toward dropping everything into the west and southwest while the GEFS and Canadians do not so they are frigid near Halloween. EPS have higher skill at this range so you'd hedge a bit there. But they've also been awful a couple times already this fall overplaying warmth up here. Still have that SW bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 I don't think that bias exists as much, but anecdotally it does seem to happen from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Coming up on a crucial period for the battered coast. 2 major erosion events already this Oct. Super high tides end the month. Have to keep a close eye on any major event popping up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 3 hours ago, Spanks45 said: 32.2, so close...wind didn't go calm until after 4 32.2 here.. already had a few freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Depends on which guidance is correct. Euro/EPS is trending toward dropping everything into the west and southwest while the GEFS and Canadians do not so they are frigid near Halloween. EPS have higher skill at this range so you'd hedge a bit there. But they've also been awful a couple times already this fall overplaying warmth up here. Yup...perfect summation elucidating the differences ... Fwiw - to the general reader, my take on things. With regard to the American -based tele progs, the CDC is more emphatic about the PNA mode changing from negative to positive spanning these last ten days or so of the month, compared the CPC ... if you see this chart below, tomorrow ... next day, be careful that it may not update, but this is what it was from last night's release from the CDC: In a vacuum this is a whopper cold signal. It's not just a pronounced and thick PNA mode change that is impressive... The NAO is decidely negative "as" the PNA is rising.. This would actually portend an Archembaultian signal if this were a month from now and the tele's were both, more dependable, but the hemisphere would be more indicative of an established pattern therein. The EPO is negative too - with ain't hurin - but, I suspect it is negative because the PNA is in fact so amplified that it's over-lapping into the EPO's lower latitude domain space ...which is weighting the index some - speculative. The WPO .. some semblance of a mode change to negative but it's so slight that I'm not sure that sending much correlation downstream just yet. I don't think either way the Pacific is in a hurry to send a warm look either, tho - Having said all that, the CPC is interesting rendering a bit of a blase PNA compared to the coherence of these bar-graphs above: I'm not really sure which should be paramount in assessing the mass-field forcing to be honest. I 'tend' to lean CPC in the winter, and CDC in the summer? But the coins turning over in the air in mid stride between those seasons. A few of the members mop-end and rise positive but there are a lot that remain neutral neggie out there, which is in a pretty clear conflict with week 2 CDC appeal. One thing that I also find interesting is that the AO is trying to start out modestly negative, then drops to -2 or so SD for ten or so day, before relaxing a little way out there ( which is obviously up for grabs by the end of week 2...) Putting all this in a blender and hitting frappe pours a glass that tastes chilly overall from the GFS cluster. As far as the Euro/EPS ... I'm not fully convinced that technology is completely without its older bias of tending to plumb heights too deeply in the SW. Some sages may recall that was a big problem with that guidance like... 20 years ago. But through time and upgrades the greater pith of that bias has improved, admittedly, ...at least per my own observation. But it still seems at times that given lesser excuse it has a panache where it's still trying to do that. Many of it's overtly large ridges and heat signals of the summer that failed were - I think - related to lowering heights to prodigiously...even if subtle, out west. It's not impossible it's too "tucky" with that inside slider it's got betwixt D7-10. The EPS if of course a little flatter, but that's typical.. Here's the thing, a mid way correction ...even say, 1/3 yielding to the GFS ( so partial ) would be be enough to see substantively colder as far E as Detroit I feel... I dunno...I'm a little uneasy about the Euro clusters height distribution out there in the extended. I was initially impressed over a week ago and posted about this period between the 20th of October and ~ the 10th of Novie... This is really more like emerging toward ..or perhaps re-emerging, toward a prior signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Is there any correlation to a -nao October and how the ensuing winter behaves in that region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Is there any correlation to a -nao October and how the ensuing winter behaves in that region? The short answer? ... maybe how's that Lol oy... The thing with the NAO is that is a fickle beast. It has marked intra-seasonal, and even intra-weekly time -scaled variances that are headachy .. virtually impossible to predict at seasonal time lengths in general. That immediately intuits that any correlation between a couple of run-ins with neggie NAO would be met with more 'noisiness' when trying to drub an tendency out of any given year. Having said that ... the 'maybe' part of that is: The NAO also appears to follow the AMO... which runs along a rough 30 to 40 year periodicity that oscillates between negative and positive - similar and in fact, it may even be the same as the PDO ( just off the top of my head..). SO, if we are in a negative(positive) regime therein, the NAO may be innately prone to being negative in general in October, as well as the proper cold season due to that preexisting tendency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 32.2 here.. already had a few freezes. 32.9, my bad. 2 Freezes, so far...29 on 10/5 and 31 on 10/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Still no 32 here. Doubt we'll hit it tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Just came across this picture of New London Ledge in the storm this week. Not your typical LIS seas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What’s your elevation neighbor? Right around 400, much lower than than areas to my west...I am almost in the valley of the Housatonic when looking at a topo map. You? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 32.9, my bad. 2 Freezes, so far...29 on 10/5 and 31 on 10/6 I have been 32.7 and 33.1 earlier in the month....We radiate well in my location, my temp is almost always within a degree of DXR, despite being almost 15 miles away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 33 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I have been 32.7 and 33.1 earlier in the month....We radiate well in my location, my temp is almost always within a degree of DXR, despite being almost 15 miles away I am a pretty elite radiator, I have come to realize.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Crept down to 31.8F here this morning. Pretty awesome out right now at a sunny 62F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Spanks45 said: Right around 400, much lower than than areas to my west...I am almost in the valley of the Housatonic when looking at a topo map. You? Around 600. I’m like 3/4 of the way up that hill on 84 between exit 15 and 16. I think the highest the hill gets is around 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 2 hours ago, moneypitmike said: Just came across this picture of New London Ledge in the storm this week. Not your typical LIS seas. Yeah, Fishers (in the background) had to suspend ferry service that day, which is pretty rare for that quiet 3 miles of sheltered sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Is there any correlation to a -nao October and how the ensuing winter behaves in that region? I thought there is a negative correlation but unsure of the sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 6 hours ago, moneypitmike said: Just came across this picture of New London Ledge in the storm this week. Not your typical LIS seas. Winds were 65mph from the seast and then 65 from the swest. Groton Long Point just around the corner 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 And up north, those winds brought snow to the picnic tables. What an absolutely stunning day of blue skies and a high of 50F at MVL. Snow didn't melt above 3,000ft and I will say, looking up from town at a snow capped Mansfield certainly gets one in the mood for winter. Already down to 36F here at 8pm. Going to be a cold night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Same here. The mountains were stunning today. 32 degrees at 8.15pm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Driving home through the Whites tomorrow afternoon. Hope I get some of the same views. May take the Kanc to see if I can get to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 1 hour ago, alex said: Same here. The mountains were stunning today. 32 degrees at 8.15pm Nice, Alex! I was at the same spot earlier today 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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