Torch Tiger Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Cold snowy October/November..we know where that path usually leads. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 8:33 PM, Dr. Dews said: Cold snowy October/November..we know where that path usually leads. Expand They both could be AN, def Oct. Also not sold on a big trough in the east just yet, I see plenty of WAR resistance with a mean trough near the lakes. Would be an active pattern but mostly mild or near normal averaged out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 8:33 PM, Dr. Dews said: Cold snowy October/November..we know where that path usually leads. Expand Really hurt us last year when it started snowing in October. Record snow depth achieved in November and again in January, maxing above 120” in March/April. Start the snowpack early and it usually means good things. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 9:44 PM, powderfreak said: Really hurt us last year when it started snowing in October. Record snow depth achieved in November and again in January, maxing above 120” in March/April. Start the snowpack early and it usually means good things. Expand How did you get out of your house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 9:51 PM, Ginx snewx said: How did you get out of your house? Expand Fire escape . Early snow is great snow. Lay that base and lay it thick. Didn’t see the lawn for a solid 5 months. Bring it on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 9:44 PM, powderfreak said: Really hurt us last year when it started snowing in October. Record snow depth achieved in November and again in January, maxing above 120” in March/April. Start the snowpack early and it usually means good things. Expand I don't want to correlate northern mountain sub-climate with SNE populations, you could be right. In fact I'm going with a decent winter for NNE resorts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 There is an old saying we use up here on a regular basis, Its called, Early and often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 9:57 PM, Dr. Dews said: I don't want to correlate northern mountain sub-climate with SNE populations, you could be right. In fact I'm going with a decent winter for NNE resorts. Expand I just think the October snow stuff is foo-foo even in SNE populations. I get the stats with extremely limited sample sizes...but just wait till that winter where it snows 4” on Halloween then 100+ the rest of the winter, ha. In the NNE mountains it makes sense there’s no correlation as it snows a lot more regularly in October...and a wide variety of winters follow. No precursor indicator. October mountain snow is like November snow in SNE. Maybe there’s a September snow correlation in the NNE mtns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 9:41 PM, SnoSki14 said: They both could be AN, def Oct. Also not sold on a big trough in the east just yet, I see plenty of WAR resistance with a mean trough near the lakes. Would be an active pattern but mostly mild or near normal averaged out. Expand Every model and ensembles have a turn to cooler weather by end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 10:00 PM, powderfreak said: I just think the October snow stuff is foo-foo even in SNE populations. I get the stats with extremely limited sample sizes...but just wait till that winter where it snows 4” on Halloween then 100+ the rest of the winter, ha. In the NNE mountains it makes sense there’s no correlation as it snows a lot more regularly in October...and a wide variety of winters follow. No precursor indicator. Expand Maybe it is voodoo, you are the winter/snow fella and I'll defer. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 10:02 PM, Dr. Dews said: Maybe it is voodoo, you are the winter/snow fella and I'll defer. Lol Expand 2002-03 my last winter living down south we had 2-3” near ALB in October, then followed with 100”+ winter and months of snow cover. Everyone remembers 2011-12 though as the Oct snow vs winter snow correlation. Maybe it’s >12” in October is bad news? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 10:05 PM, powderfreak said: 2002-03 my last winter living down south we had 2-3” near ALB in October, then followed with 100”+ winter and months of snow cover. Everyone remembers 2011-12 though as the Oct snow vs winter snow correlation. Maybe it’s >12” in October is bad news? Lol. Expand I've posted the stats for ORH before which has a much larger sample of measurable October snow than a place like BOS. ORH October snow has no correlation with total winter snowfall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 10:26 PM, ORH_wxman said: I've posted the stats for ORH before which has a much larger sample of measurable October snow than a place like BOS. ORH October snow has no correlation with total winter snowfall. Expand Unless it is greater that 6” then it’s a ratter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 10:02 PM, Snow88 said: Every model and ensembles have a turn to cooler weather by end of the month. Expand The EPS out to 10 days doesn't show that at all. It has the mean trough in the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 10:28 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Unless it is greater that 6” then it’s a ratter Expand Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 10:28 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Unless it is greater that 6” then it’s a ratter Expand ding ding ding! Notice @ORH_wxman failed to mention that little tid bit! Although I doubt that has happened very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 10:26 PM, ORH_wxman said: I've posted the stats for ORH before which has a much larger sample of measurable October snow than a place like BOS. ORH October snow has no correlation with total winter snowfall. Expand Do positive departures Nov/Oct correlate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 10:31 PM, Whineminster said: ding ding ding! Notice @ORH_wxman failed to mention that little tid bit! Expand So if we remove the 2 octobers that produced 6"+ snowstorms, we are left with a bunch of octobers that had measurable snow and produced an average winter of over 80". Therefore....we should root for October snow as long as it isn't a blockbuster over 6". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 10:31 PM, Whineminster said: ding ding ding! Notice @ORH_wxman failed to mention that little tid bit! Although I doubt that has happened very often. Expand Twice In recorded history as far as I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 10:32 PM, Dr. Dews said: Do positive departures Nov/Oct correlate? Expand November temps correlate somewhat...we don't want a torch November....like +3 or more. That has a pretty bad track record. For ORH, here are the most recent Novembers that finished +3 or more 2015 2011 2009 2006 2003 2001 1999 1994 1982 1979 1975 Not a single blockbuster winter in those with plenty of full-on ratters. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 I see many bad dates that Will posted, I hope that's the last we see of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Seems ORH is "due"! Kidding, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 10:40 PM, ORH_wxman said: November temps correlate somewhat...we don't want a torch November....like +3 or more. That has a pretty bad track record. For ORH, here are the most recent Novembers that finished +3 or more 2015 2011 2009 2006 2003 2001 1999 1994 1982 1979 1975 Not a single blockbuster winter in those with plenty of full-on ratters. Expand Snowy Novies seem to generally lead to good winters in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 11:23 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Snowy Novies seem to generally lead to good winters in SNE Expand Makes sense, you are already getting inches of snow in the seasonal total. The more you can rack up early in the season, the better chance you have at a higher total by the end of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 11:23 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Snowy Novies seem to generally lead to good winters in SNE Expand Cept last year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 11:33 PM, Ginx snewx said: Cept last year Expand Didn’t we only have one snowfall last Nov? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 11:30 PM, powderfreak said: Makes sense, you are already getting inches of snow in the seasonal total. The more you can rack up early in the season, the better chance you have at a higher total by the end of the season. Expand Lol we only average 2 inches in Nov, top ten Novies for snow then following winter are split 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 11:39 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Didn’t we only have one snowfall last Nov? Expand Years where we had multiple and following winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 10:33 PM, ORH_wxman said: So if we remove the 2 octobers that produced 6"+ snowstorms, we are left with a bunch of octobers that had measurable snow and produced an average winter of over 80". Therefore....we should root for October snow as long as it isn't a blockbuster over 6". Expand It would be the one and only time weenies under measure and root for the snow to stop...short of 6”. Like, “yes, I only have 5.25”...winter is saved.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 On 10/15/2019 at 11:40 PM, Ginx snewx said: Years were we had multiple and following winter? Expand What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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