October 2019 Weather Discussion

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The positive is that the marshes that haven't dried up tend to radiate really well.

I don't think mosquitoes really die at exactly 32F anyway. As you get colder and colder they're more likely to go dormant. I think our more northern species produce glycerol in freezing temps which can help prevent their cells from freezing. It works a bit like tardigrades.

How does radiational cooling work with respect to dewpoints? That is something I've tried to learn/understand in the past from doing the Wx Challenge, however, I seemed to perhaps lack some fundamental understanding. My assumption was when there was a very low dewpoint depression during the overnight, temperatures would struggle to really bottom out...and I would sort of use projected dewpoints for low temps...but I got bit real hard at times b/c the dewpoints would really crash too and the temperature would follow. 

As for tonight though it looked like dewpoints would hover in the lower 30's. There is a ton of dry air aloft so any mixing would certainly bring down drier air...but it didn't really look like there would be any mixing? Looked like subsidence inversion and light BL winds...but would this result in decoupling and does that mix down drier air? 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

I keep a big rock in front of the coop door overnight. This morning I picked it up to toss it on the ground and my back said "not today". It felt like someone took an axe across my back. Nice way to start a day off and 3 day weekend.

That stinks man. Hope that gets better in a few days. We aging.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

How does radiational cooling work with respect to dewpoints? That is something I've tried to learn/understand in the past from doing the Wx Challenge, however, I seemed to perhaps lack some fundamental understanding. My assumption was when there was a very low dewpoint depression during the overnight, temperatures would struggle to really bottom out...and I would sort of use projected dewpoints for low temps...but I got bit real hard at times b/c the dewpoints would really crash too and the temperature would follow. 

As for tonight though it looked like dewpoints would hover in the lower 30's. There is a ton of dry air aloft so any mixing would certainly bring down drier air...but it didn't really look like there would be any mixing? Looked like subsidence inversion and light BL winds...but would this result in decoupling and does that mix down drier air? 

It can be tricky. I've seen HIE/BML start a night at like 40/40, clear out, and stay calm. Then they procede to fall to something like 25/25 before finally succumbing to freezing fog. Lower els can tap into colder dews that drain down into the valleys as hill/mtn surfaces radiate. If I see MWN running very dry in the evening despite a near saturated start at those sites I always figure they'll radiate like mad anyway. It seems to be difficult to "fog out" once you get into the mid 20s too unless you're near a body of water or have laying water handing around. I mean, how often do we see fog with temps below 20F? Only the most extreme rad pits seem to do that. Diamond dust is pretty rare south of NNE too.

But yeah, minus continued advection overnight, the afternoon dewpoint is a good estimate. If you're confident you're going to see radiational cooling MOS can be tough to beat too.

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That stinks man. Hope that gets better in a few days. We aging.

[alex]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It can be tricky. I've seen HIE/BML start a night at like 40/40, clear out, and stay calm. Then they procede to fall to something like 25/25 before finally succumbing to freezing fog. Lower els can tap into colder dews that drain down into the valleys as hill/mtn surfaces radiate. If I see MWN running very dry in the evening despite a near saturated start at those sites I always figure they'll radiate like mad anyway. It seems to be difficult to "fog out" once you get into the mid 20s too unless you're near a body of water or have laying water handing around. I mean, how often do we see fog with temps below 20F? Only the most extreme rad pits seem to do that. Diamond dust is pretty rare south of NNE too.

But yeah, minus continued advection overnight, the afternoon dewpoint is a good estimate. If you're confident you're going to see radiational cooling MOS can be tough to beat too.

Speaking of fog, my kid now goes to school in "HIE" and I've been surprised by how much fog they get! Almost every morning. 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Don't count your chickens before they poop. 

 

Should I expect a different count post-defecation? 

[tamarack]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It can be tricky. I've seen HIE/BML start a night at like 40/40, clear out, and stay calm. Then they procede to fall to something like 25/25 before finally succumbing to freezing fog. Lower els can tap into colder dews that drain down into the valleys as hill/mtn surfaces radiate. If I see MWN running very dry in the evening despite a near saturated start at those sites I always figure they'll radiate like mad anyway. It seems to be difficult to "fog out" once you get into the mid 20s too unless you're near a body of water or have laying water handing around. I mean, how often do we see fog with temps below 20F? Only the most extreme rad pits seem to do that. Diamond dust is pretty rare south of NNE too.

But yeah, minus continued advection overnight, the afternoon dewpoint is a good estimate. If you're confident you're going to see radiational cooling MOS can be tough to beat too.

Our first year in Fort Kent we lived 50 yards from the St. John, and September had a couple foggy 34s before we finally got a frost on the 26th.  That was 12 days later than any of the other 9 first-frosts, and 20 days behind the average of those 9.

Hope your back is muscles only.  Hurts at least as much (my mom said her back spasm pain was worse than her broken back) but doesn't involve the spine.  My first such event (Feb. 1981) came a month after our pickup lost its fight with a log truck, while I was still in a walking cast that made my left leg 3" longer than the right.  Was at PQI hospital (son getting a test) when I reached for toddler daughter's books - weighed a pound, maybe - and as I drew them toward me it was like a knife sinking into my back, probably the most intense pain I've ever had.  Walking 20' from bed to bath took 15 minutes with at least 3 points of solid contact at all times, to avoid the smallest bit of sudden move and another stab of the knife.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Our first year in Fort Kent we lived 50 yards from the St. John, and September had a couple foggy 34s before we finally got a frost on the 26th.  That was 12 days later than any of the other 9 first-frosts, and 20 days behind the average of those 9.

Hope your back is muscles only.  Hurts at least as much (my mom said her back spasm pain was worse than her broken back) but doesn't involve the spine.  My first such event (Feb. 1981) came a month after our pickup lost its fight with a log truck, while I was still in a walking cast that made my left leg 3" longer than the right.  Was at PQI hospital (son getting a test) when I reached for toddler daughter's books - weighed a pound, maybe - and as I drew them toward me it was like a knife sinking into my back, probably the most intense pain I've ever had.  Walking 20' from bed to bath took 15 minutes with at least 3 points of solid contact at all times, to avoid the smallest bit of sudden move and another stab of the knife.

I've thrown out my back doing really innoucuous things:  reaching for my cat's water dish, shaving, standing from sitting.

 

Sucks so much.  One episode it took me 20 minutes to hobble down my stairs

[powderfreak]

34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It can be tricky. I've seen HIE/BML start a night at like 40/40, clear out, and stay calm. Then they procede to fall to something like 25/25 before finally succumbing to freezing fog. Lower els can tap into colder dews that drain down into the valleys as hill/mtn surfaces radiate. If I see MWN running very dry in the evening despite a near saturated start at those sites I always figure they'll radiate like mad anyway. It seems to be difficult to "fog out" once you get into the mid 20s too unless you're near a body of water or have laying water handing around. I mean, how often do we see fog with temps below 20F? Only the most extreme rad pits seem to do that. Diamond dust is pretty rare south of NNE too.

But yeah, minus continued advection overnight, the afternoon dewpoint is a good estimate. If you're confident you're going to see radiational cooling MOS can be tough to beat too.

I’ve always struggled with it, there seems to be a time of year (late spring, summer and early fall) where the afternoon minimum dew point reading works really well at MVL for low temps.  Like it’ll nail it spot on to what that minimum afternoon dew is.  

However now in the season of longer darkness at night, it seems to exceed that afternoon dew point by quite a bit at times (ie afternoon dew is 40F, the next morning can be 32F now...but in late August if the dew is 40F the next morning temp will be 40F).  

Ive always attributed it to the length of night (ie extra hours of rad cooling) but I’ve always wondered about the mechanics of how it can be 38/38 at 8pm, but keep dropping to be 28/28 by 6am.  It’s like the dews and temps come down together once they meet.

[moneypitmike]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

They could see several-plus inches of snow too across parts of ND/SD/eastern WY mid-week. Those same areas could see 80's a week later  

A guy from work lives in Wyoming.  He posted pictures two days so far this week of overnight snows.  Just coatings so far.

 

On another note:  https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2019/10/04/yes-there-are-lot-acorns-ground-this-season-here-why/RxvCFvTh2AVA3XYfNHG14K/story.html?s_campaign=breakingnews:newsletter

[TalcottWx]

I like to make you guys feel old. Two years until I'm 30. Joined Eastern freshman year of HS. Didn't even have a driver's license. 

[powderfreak]

32F with wind chills in the upper teens at the picnic tables.  Brrr.

[Ginx snewx]

Holy wind gusts 57 partly cloudy

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

James, I love you but this post was made without much thought to the diversity of opinions and beliefs in the world.  Include everything in your soul searching is my advice to you.

He has every right to express himself without having to worry about what everyone else thinks and believes.  The PC culture run amok

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I am changing everything about my past ways, I am using a more scientific process and using better data to give me the best chance to succeed.  With my previous reputation being what it was, I definitely wanted to change that mindset and that perception of my predictions.  I am going to do a better job, and improve my outlook.

Nice James. Its always good to re evaluate yourself.  I do everyday even as an old geyser. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

49.0F BKN and windy. Lots of leaf drop.

Majorly pulled out my back this morning too. Career ending injury like Ginxy and Jay.

Oh man sorry. Hope just a pinched nerve.  Ice ice baby

[Brian5671]

classic sunny/windy fall day here.   61

[Ginx snewx]

35 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I've thrown out my back doing really innoucuous things:  reaching for my cat's water dish, shaving, standing from sitting.

 

Sucks so much.  One episode it took me 20 minutes to hobble down my stairs

That's sometimes a daily occurrence for me. I am dealing with something I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy.  But life is good on this side of the grass. Yanked all veggies out today. Made a huge mistake and tested the hot chili peppers, just a tiny bite and I had to run for milk, and I like hot peppers. Gonna make red pepper flake out of them, about 50 peppers 

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I like to make you guys feel old. Two years until I'm 30. Joined Eastern freshman year of HS. Didn't even have a driver's license. 

Nice man what was your name on Eastern? Lol dont need you to feel old just need to walk. 

[weatherwiz]

59 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It can be tricky. I've seen HIE/BML start a night at like 40/40, clear out, and stay calm. Then they procede to fall to something like 25/25 before finally succumbing to freezing fog. Lower els can tap into colder dews that drain down into the valleys as hill/mtn surfaces radiate. If I see MWN running very dry in the evening despite a near saturated start at those sites I always figure they'll radiate like mad anyway. It seems to be difficult to "fog out" once you get into the mid 20s too unless you're near a body of water or have laying water handing around. I mean, how often do we see fog with temps below 20F? Only the most extreme rad pits seem to do that. Diamond dust is pretty rare south of NNE too.

But yeah, minus continued advection overnight, the afternoon dewpoint is a good estimate. If you're confident you're going to see radiational cooling MOS can be tough to beat too.

That is an excellent tip...I never really thought to use obs at MWN in relation to forecasting overnight temps. Forecasting overnight lows (I think is real difficult)...there are so many factors which can influence how temperatures respond at night and the biggest challenge is gauging whether the BL will decouple or not. I remember a times times throughout the challenge both nailing and getting destroyed with lows b/c of radiational cooling. I've actually found forecasting lows down south (right along the Gulf) and HI to be a bit difficult. 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

classic sunny/windy fall day here.   61

yeah the winds have really picked up. Just walked back from lunch and it seems like a noticeable jump from the past hour. 

[TalcottWx]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice man what was your name on Eastern? Lol dont need you to feel old just need to walk. 

I don't even remember what it was before sbos_wx, I think it was just my name?

[rclab]

26 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I like to make you guys feel old. Two years until I'm 30. Joined Eastern freshman year of HS. Didn't even have a driver's license. 

Jay, I found the old Eastern weather forums while using Microsoft’s original web tv it was their attempt to drag us into, what was then, the technical present. I considered myself old then and that was, at your young age, before you knew  what “it” was probably used for. As always....

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, rclab said:

Jay, I found the old Eastern weather forums while using Microsoft’s original web tv it was their attempt to drag us into, what was then, the technical present. I considered myself old then and that was, at your young age, before you knew  what “it” was probably used for. As always....

Drunk?

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

49.0F BKN and windy. Lots of leaf drop.

Majorly pulled out my back this morning too. Career ending injury like Ginxy and Jay.

I have both career ender back, as well as hip bursitis. Agony sometimes. I hope you just strained it. good luck.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

 

I keep a big rock in front of the coop door overnight. This morning I picked it up to toss it on the ground and my back said "not today". It felt like someone took an axe across my back. Nice way to start a day off and 3 day weekend.

Whenever i try to do to much i pay dearly for it, And when the spasms start that's a real treat too like someone keeps stabbing you with a hot knife in L4 for a day or so, That's when me and the ice pack get real interment .

[dendrite]

Thanks for the back wishes. Hope everyone else stays strong and healthy too. Old begets old.

Anyway, 49.4F right now with SCT skies and gusts to near 30kt at the ASOS. Seriously, wtf.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Our first year in Fort Kent we lived 50 yards from the St. John, and September had a couple foggy 34s before we finally got a frost on the 26th.  That was 12 days later than any of the other 9 first-frosts, and 20 days behind the average of those 9.

Noticed there's 2 non-commissioned AWOS sites out there that are probably dear to your heart.

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=0ME1&time=GMT

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=FTK9&time=GMT

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice James. Its always good to re evaluate yourself.  I do everyday even as an old geyser. 

it is important to remain humble and try and improve on your downfalls and negative habits.

[Typhoon Tip]

Brian ... I recently had a 30 hour back spasm episode in my lower back...  A coworker was out two days the week prior with a similar condition - short duration but borderline severe.   She an I were considering if there something possibly pathogenic about it -   just thought I'd mention.