HoarfrostHubb Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Transitioning to the later part of Autumn. Mixed bag coming up. Much needed precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 "Hopefully no snow" ? LOL - Yeah... doesn't seem to portend, or end too well for winters when snow in October seems to mean "all-over" before it even begins, ha. Oh, we're supposed to know it doesn't mean anything. We're just being paranoid as winter enthusiasts. And as others string together statistics to show us all why ( 'don't worry; doesn't mean nothing') existentially it desperately seems to mean the winter is doomed, regardless. I think it is possible that the years it snowed in October that didn't proceed into a subjectively good winter, might just stick out more painfully so ( probably some truth to that..) However, objectively ( or trying to be so...) I've always found the stats to have two problems: One, sample size is too small. Since the era of early snow chances kicked in - circa, 2000, there's only occurred ( I think ) 7 Octobers when/where either it was a flurries/packing pellets under virga-burst CAA cumulous, or synoptic slush. That's not a big number when there's been 200 million years of eastern Two, statistics will gladly be interpreted as not meaning anything' Why? Preservation of course... it preserves the unadulterated probability of a good winter, regardless of the preceding October. That may be true, anyway...but it also strikes me as bargaining a bit, because there's not that many omissions about the smallness of the sample size, either, which means it is unlikely to be a fair adjudication of the data - just going out and finding reasons to protect the drug shipments - hahaha. Seriously, I think we are in a tendency for early cool shots because of the expanding Hadley Cell associated with global warming, the PDO... or perhaps ( if not likely ) some combination of both. It's probably counter-intuitive for some, but... warmth does imply ridging. And the Pacific Basin is warm; it may be screwing with the World's early season(s) R-wave typology - in other words, making it unusually steep in western Canada. There's a short window right at the early part of N. Hemisphere transition seasons, where the NE Pacific is favored to ridging because of the latent heat imbalance. That means -EPOs and early cold shots and ever year we've seen these early blue Octobers it's been like that with -EPO or pulses therein.. Project a bit forward and then the more base-line pattern emerges ... probably more independent of that transient forcing that took place earlier on. So that sort of backs me into defending the 'cherry statisticians' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 29, 2019 Author Share Posted September 29, 2019 Just an ongoing joke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Just an ongoing joke... mm... I think it worth exploring it a bit. It's been a topic in the past... ( I expanded on that ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 29, 2019 Author Share Posted September 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: mm... I think it worth exploring it a bit. It's been a topic in the past... ( I expanded on that ) Yeah. I read your expanded post. I know you, Will and others have put up lots of data about October snows. My little tongue in cheek response is ORH centric. If they get a 6”+ snow event we get a ratter. 2 for 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Euro's not far from a Bahama Blue pattern there D 8.5 -10 ... In fact, it is really for about 12 hours before the N-S oriented boundary squeezes through but those heights are mighty high out there E of CC/S of NS and with the blocking TUTT near the 55th longitude, it's not a far stretch to image that front slowing down further in future runs. Predicated on the assumption that these major players are actually approximal - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Thread title says trending BN, how so? Looks like another + month for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 I think it ends up AN as well. At least here in the eastern US. I feel like this -PNA look continues through mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Looks like Maine will get some snow this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Very spring-like surface analysis this morning ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 It's a surface analysis that really almost should not be like that, not when considering the 500 mb layout ( using the 00z EPS initialization) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Super-impose that surface layout under that H 500 ... the ridge seems it should have prevented a frontal position that far S extending midriff to intense BD structure over the Mid Atlantic. This has been an oddity playing out since April (really). It has prevented eastern U.S. from getting the European headlines going, ...keeping our departures tepid. I find that fascinating, because it is a cool surface anomaly "relative to the pattern." The pattern has looked to support above normal the majority of the way; perhaps the aforementioned relativity/bias has masked. Mid levels appear to have been warmer in total anomaly relative to the surface verification. That ridge up there would support 90+ clear to Buffalo but, these giant high pressures and or just inhibition for fronts getting N despite the mid levels is a real phenomenon in my mind. I strongly suspect one that is rooted in the -AO preponderant phase state that's also been characterizing the summer and so far autumn. I believe it has kept the westerly's/jet more active than normal, as well ..suppressed S. Confluence episodes in the means then ejecting east through the N/A quadrature create surface pressure anomalies...that in near equal measure ( spatially) cut/exert underneath these ridge-rims from the N. These features were not evidence at all times..no. Just that this tendency to ablate heat getting to the 40th parallel, in this unusual, larger spatial way in general has aided in keeping our summer temperatures down, if however concealed that truth is behind the empirical averages. I wonder if this longer termed idiosyncrasy continues deeper into the autumn - .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Super-impose that surface layout under that H 500 ... the ridge seems it should have prevented a frontal position that far S extending midriff to intense BD structure over the Mid Atlantic. This has been an oddity playing out since April (really). It has prevented eastern U.S. from getting the European headlines going, ...keeping our departures tepid. I find that fascinating, because it is a cool surface anomaly "relative to the pattern." The pattern has looked to support above normal the majority of the way; perhaps the aforementioned relativity/bias has masked. Mid levels appear to have been warmer in total anomaly relative to the surface verification. That ridge up there would support 90+ clear to Buffalo but, these giant high pressures and or just inhibition for fronts getting N despite the mid levels is a real phenomenon in my mind. I strongly suspect one that is rooted in the -AO preponderant phase state that's also been characterizing the summer and so far autumn. I believe it has kept the westerly's/jet more active than normal, as well ..suppressed S. Confluence episodes in the means then ejecting east through the N/A quadrature create surface pressure anomalies...that in near equal measure ( spatially) cut/exert underneath these ridge-rims from the N. These features were not evidence at all times..no. Just that this tendency to ablate heat getting to the 40th parallel, in this unusual, larger spatial way in general has aided in keeping our summer temperatures down, if however concealed that truth is behind the empirical averages. I wonder if this longer termed idiosyncrasy continues deeper into the autumn - .. Reminds me of those December looks in Nino when you have a blow torch pattern across a majority of the CONUS, but a 1040 high noses in and somehow gives the interior snow/Ice amid a furnace aloft. However, the folks from the lower MS valley to the Mid Atlantic sure aren't partaking in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 21 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Transitioning to the later part of Autumn. Mixed bag coming up. Much needed precip. Latter? It just started.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Reminds me of those December looks in Nino when you have a blow torch pattern across a majority of the CONUS, but a 1040 high noses in and somehow gives the interior snow/Ice amid a furnace aloft. However, the folks from the lower MS valley to the Mid Atlantic sure aren't partaking in this. Mm .. you know, it's not a bad way to look at that Scott - and I agree firstly; there's definitely an air ( puns are free of charge btw ) of cool ENSO bias to these appeals ... subtle at times, more coherent at others where that's like a base-line pattern. That, despite the ENSO being neutral mild? This hearkens to recent papers regarding the Hadely Cell expansion ( probably getting to be a broken record from me, I know...but unfortunately, it's true ). Last year, it took very late into the winter before the atmosphere even began to exhibit it was even responding to the on-going, low-amplitude warn ENSO of the time - and this was noted through out the early to mid winter weekly publications by NCEP. In fact, the turn of phrase in that sentence I just wrote may even be paraphrasing one I once read ( now that I think back). This "delay" response thing ... it's because the "gradient triggers" are moving relative to historical precedence ( I believe ..); such that modest ENSO warm(cool) regimes may not be as important to the pattern in winter, because the coupled state of the ocean-atmosphere is changing the forcing as it terminates through the R-wave distribution at mid latitudes... blah blah-blah give a pistol head, I know. Anyway, I wonder if that NINA-esque thing might actually be sort of what happens when there is lowering/no input, thru gradient weakening - just a circumstance we haven't seen because up until some 15 or so years ago - prior to that approximate range there always was that input. Fascinating... This winter could be interesting. I think the -AO multi-decade stuff ( and the PDO/AMO are also correlating to -EPO/-NAO in support ) has legs. Doesn't mean it'll exert at all times of course. f* it could backseat ...just in time screw this winter, come back to haunt next summer, then wait until that next winter.. But it's lurking. The ENSO events ( in my mind ) have to layout in larger total SD in a coupled- GW atmosphere, where is causing the gradients inside the Hadely Cell latitudes to weaken by the homogenized elevation of heights It's not something that is very obvious on charts -either. We can't just go over to the D8-10 anomalies on the PSU E-Wall rendering and expect to see that circumstantially at lower latitudes around the hemisphere. It's a probably a sensi/discrete math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 NPAC and NATL are quite mild. It does seem like this semi-persistent ridge in the NPAC has fed into the warmer than normal waters there...which then may feedback to the H5 pattern etc. Which in turn could expand the Hadley Cell as Tip said. The waters north of Hawaii are definitely more prone to quicker changes. It won't take much of a trough to knock those departures down. The waters near the equator are a different story. Hopefully we can get those departures more west of the dateline. Meanwhile, the chilly waters (relative to normal) over the maritime continent and SE Indian Ocean resemble those from our more stronger Nino events. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Right - 'disarray' is the new thing.. ... The paradigm has changes men and women, and that new model is uncertainty. The following is op ed: This particular emerging aspect of GW is rendering the old reliances more invalid. All seasonal ( btw, separate topic, but one that annoys me...) outlooks are a fool's endeavor if one ignores the neutering-of-ENSO-idea-out of hand. And no, it is not 'entirely' neutered, just that it's efficacy is reducing in present era going forward. I've already seen a bevy winter outlooks applying that same old mantra/modis operendi ... Isaac Asimov'ing these fantastically well-written ...but ultimately pointless ENSO -reliant seasonal outlooks. Unless that f'er is some kinda deep tissue (+) or (-) 3 SDs... it ain't doin' shit. There will be times when aspects [ coincidentally ] look more so ( and we'll field pride-posts and publications taking credit ) or less ( and we'll field "no one got it right" ), in either case, like it is supposed to have behaved otherwise? This really got started back in the super Nino, this awakening to the lowering effectiveness of the relative ENSO states. That El Nino event was historic in proportion - the effects/affects as noted and papered in the years since have described a disproportionately tame impact from that beast. And last year's more modest yet noted warm anomalies ... waited unusually late to register in the atmosphere, but impact meaning also secondarily was reduced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Just lock in the annual Oct superstorm with mega tides the last week now while you can 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Just lock in the annual Oct superstorm with mega tides the last week now while you can Hope you're on to something with that guess......it's been a while since we've had a good storm around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Hopefully an uneventful October because no one wants cold rain, wind and coastal erosion/damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 30, 2019 Author Share Posted September 30, 2019 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Latter? It just started.... Octber is the transition from the beginning to the latter part, no? November into December is the latter part... so cranky for a Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 30, 2019 Author Share Posted September 30, 2019 4 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: Thread title says trending BN, how so? Looks like another + month for SNE Tues, Weds look normal to a little above normal Thurs, Fr, Sat, Sun look BN to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 30, 2019 Author Share Posted September 30, 2019 4 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: Thread title says trending BN, how so? Looks like another + month for SNE And the month overall could very well end up AN... I was just referring to the start of the month. Beyond that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Hopefully an uneventful October because no one wants cold rain, wind and coastal erosion/damage. Bite your tongue Dews....we want all of that and then some lol. We're due for a good ol fashioned cold rain/wind storm to let us know it's Autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Tues, Weds look normal to a little above normal Thurs, Fr, Sat, Sun look BN to me... What a failed Torch this week. Wednesday 80’s are now mid 50’s on 12z nam. Gfs still had 80’s far southern zones early p.m Wednesday . timing of that boundary Is obviously key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: What a failed Torch this week. Wednesday 80’s are now mid 50’s on 12z nam. Gfs still had 80’s far southern zones early p.m Wednesday . timing of that boundary Is obviously key Wasn't it suppose to be 90's all week??? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Bite your tongue Dews....we want all of that and then some lol. We're due for a good ol fashioned cold rain/wind storm to let us know it's Autumn. No one wants property damage and flooding. What kind of sicko would 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's a surface analysis that really almost should not be like that, not when considering the 500 mb layout ( using the 00z EPS initialization) Crazy how that 500mb layout is going to give us a couple days of below normal temps at the surface (at least up this way). Pretty colors aloft not translating to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 26 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Crazy how that 500mb layout is going to give us a couple days of below normal temps at the surface (at least up this way). Pretty colors aloft not translating to the surface. Some were fooled 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Just lock in the annual Oct superstorm with mega tides the last week now while you can They were pretty dam high this morning here on a light easterly breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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