LibertyBell Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 On 10/2/2019 at 7:36 PM, eco94 said: Long time lurker here but the drought made me come out of the woodwork. JFK just had its first accumulating rain in nearly a month. Where is the rest of the precipitation for the next 36 hours coming from? I actually loved September- it's the first time my allergies have been gone since last winter! Clear blue skies and low humidity- perfect weather! If we had rain only a couple times a month and had low humidity and clear skies the rest of the time, I would love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 On 10/2/2019 at 8:21 PM, psv88 said: Agreed. Even out here it was oppressive. Felt like July. Unreal. Would you say this is more rare or an April heatwave like we got in 2002 is more rare (which also peaked at 96 degrees.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 On 10/2/2019 at 5:07 PM, bluewave said: All the more extreme when you consider that the previous latest 95 of the season at JFK was on 9-11-83. First/Last Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 1983 06-13 (1983) 95 09-11 (1983) 96 89 2010 06-24 (2010) 97 08-31 (2010) 97 67 1973 08-28 (1973) 98 08-30 (1973) 95 1 1948 - - 08-29 (1948) 96 - 1969 05-29 (1969) 99 08-25 (1969) 97 87 I have a feeling that within the next decade we'll have our first 100 degree day in either April or October- I wonder which is more likely ;-) Is this the historic late heat that you said was the one thing we hadn't seen so far? I have to wonder if this had occurred in early September, we could have challenged that 102 record from the 50s. It's disappointing that we had that annoying set up with cool air banked to our NE, otherwise we might have had a historic summer like Baltimore did, lasting all the way to October! I actually liked the lack of rain and all the blue skies, it made my allergies go away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 On 10/2/2019 at 4:04 PM, bluewave said: Just had some very strong 30-40 mph gusts ahead of the storms here in SW Suffolk. The dried leaves were blowing all over the place. Only a few drops of rain as the bulk of the rain missed to my east. I think we experienced some sort of heat burst because the temps actually rose while those storms went off to our east- got really windy as the temps rose too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 First Frost Advisory of the season hoisted up here Frost Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 430 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 CTZ005>008-011-012-NJZ002-NYZ067-068-042100- /O.NEW.KOKX.FR.Y.0002.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam- 430 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures falling into the mid 30s will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern New Haven, Middlesex, and New London Counties. In New York, Orange and Putnam Counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 63degs., or about 3degs+ AN. Just one below normal day till maybe the weekend two weeks hence. 60.0* at 6am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even though we are in a cooler pattern now, it looks like the rainfall forecast remains below normal. It's showing a little in the next 5 days. At least it's something too hope for. Especially up here in the lower and mid-Hudson valley areas where we're still below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The rainfall was really spotty here on Long Island last few days. Only .12 at Farmingdale and .23 at Islip. Areas to the west of NYC may do the best with the next cold front on Monday. But it’s uncertain how much rainfall makes it to Long Island. Islip and other sections of Long Island are still under an inch of rain since the beginning of September. The lowest on record for this time period. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Oct 3 Missing Count 1 2019-10-03 0.84 0 2 1982-10-03 1.12 0 3 2007-10-03 1.31 0 - 2005-10-03 1.31 0 - 1985-10-03 1.31 0 Chris where was 1995 on this list? I remember we had almost zero rain in August and all those wildfires, but I dont remember when that drought finally broke. I do dimly remember there being a noreaster in October- maybe that's when the dry period finally ended? I think JFK has been even drier than ISP, because we missed out on storms that hit eastern Nassau and Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Chris where was 1995 on this list? I remember we had almost zero rain in August and all those wildfires, but I dont remember when that drought finally broke. I do dimly remember there being a noreaster in October- maybe that's when the dry period finally ended? I think JFK has been even drier than ISP, because we missed out on storms that hit eastern Nassau and Suffolk. That was the driest late July into mid-September on record for JFK. Only .36 of rain. I can still remember many of the local ponds drying up. Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 29 to Sep 16 Missing Count 1 1995-09-16 0.36 0 2 1972-09-16 1.14 0 3 1985-09-16 2.17 0 4 2005-09-16 2.36 0 5 1973-09-16 2.53 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I actually loved September- it's the first time my allergies have been gone since last winter! Clear blue skies and low humidity- perfect weather! If we had rain only a couple times a month and had low humidity and clear skies the rest of the time, I would love that. Move to the central Rockies. That's exactly what it's like from late May into mid September. Sometimes that weather holds right up until the first real snows in mid November with snow only in the high country and spectacular weather where most people actually live. 3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: First Frost Advisory of the season hoisted up here Frost Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 430 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 CTZ005>008-011-012-NJZ002-NYZ067-068-042100- /O.NEW.KOKX.FR.Y.0002.191005T0400Z-191005T1300Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam- 430 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures falling into the mid 30s will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern New Haven, Middlesex, and New London Counties. In New York, Orange and Putnam Counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. Yep, gonna pull a bunch of peppers before it gets too chilly tonight but I can't figure out how to cover the plants or if I even need to be concerned about a bumper crop of tomatoes ripening on the vines. It would be nice if it gets below freezing for a few hours and starts to put some of the plethora of stinging bugs down for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 23 hours ago, EasternLI said: Those two were also east based el nino years. Which we don't have this year. Plus, everything @bluewave mentioned. 1994 1997 Unusual combinations of Pacific SST departures and atmospheric indices have become the new normal. As has been the case in recent years, how they interact together will determine our weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 8 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don, I think we should rank historic heatwaves the same way we rank historic snowstorms. We should develop a NESIS scale for heatwaves that includes extent and extremes (90 and 100 degree days plus deviations from normal). Would this be one of the most anomalous and historic heatwaves? Also, how close did NYC come to experiencing a long duration heatwave? I noticed that for much of the warm season we had cooler air coming in from the NE and the most severe heat was just to our south (Baltimore had a historic number of 90 degree days). Do you think a minor tweak in the indices would have given us what the South got this year? I was shocked, here on the south shore we got to 95 degrees and a 100 heat index- I wonder if that's the latest that's ever happened at JFK? There is actually some work underway to provide a better measure of heat events based on a combination of duration, intensity, and frequency. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-50643-w Having said that, I agree with the idea of a population-weighted standardized measure for heat events. Constructing such a scale should be readily feasible using the software utilized to calculate NESIS. I had looked at the current heat in Atlanta relative to the historic early September 1925 heat wave. The peak of that heat wave occurred on 9/7-9 with an average high temperature of 101.3°. That was 2.96 sigma above the 1891-1920 mean temperature for 9/7-9. The 10/1-3 average for Atlanta is 95.7° (the 10/2-4 figure could be somewhat higher based on today's forecast). That is 3.04 sigma above the 1981-2010 mean temperature for 10/1-3. So, at least at its peak, the current heat wave is somewhat more impressive. I suspect that if the NAO had been closer to neutral, one would have seen far more frequent readings in the 90s into southern and perhaps central New England. Prior to 10/2/2019, JFK's latest 95° or above reading occurred on 9/11/1983 when the temperature hit 96°. The heat index topped out at 98° on 10/2. That was the latest 98° or above heat wave on record. The previous latest, which was a 100° heat index figure, at JFK occurred on 9/22/1970. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: Unusual combinations of Pacific SST departures and atmospheric indices have become the new normal. As has been the case in recent years, how they interact together will determine our weather. Totally agree. As a result, I think that analogs are perhaps not as useful as they once were. I think I'm pretty bullish on this winter coming up. The + IOD along with the +PMM while enso is neutral has me intrigued. Add to that the descending E qbo with low solar background. It's an interesting season ahead of us I think. One thing I'm curious about is how a bloated Hadley cell factors into all of this. I'm not very fond of that, but it's the times we live in with a warming world I guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 Long range NAM, but it's starting to pick up on some heavy rain amounts with a slow moving front Sunday night/Monday - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 2 hours ago, EasternLI said: Totally agree. As a result, I think that analogs are perhaps not as useful as they once were. I think I'm pretty bullish on this winter coming up. The + IOD along with the +PMM while enso is neutral has me intrigued. Add to that the descending E qbo with low solar background. It's an interesting season ahead of us I think. One thing I'm curious about is how a bloated Hadley cell factors into all of this. I'm not very fond of that, but it's the times we live in with a warming world I guess. The IOD and SOI are currently in a mode that we usually see with a more robust El Niño pattern. So maybe the SST’s become more Niño-like back toward Niño 3.4 and 4. The current split has cold near South America and warm west. Right now the 500 mb pattern is a blend of Niño and Niña features. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: The IOD and SOI are currently in a mode that we usually see with a more robust El Niño pattern. So maybe we see the SST’s become more Niño-like back toward Niño 3.4 and 4. You can see the current split with cold near South America and warm west. Right now the 500 mb pattern is a blend of Niño and Niña features. It wouldn't shock me if the upcoming Enso model forecasts show a weak west based Nino. Whatever's the case as usual our winter will hinge on the strength and position of the western ridge and if the elusive Greenland block shows up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The IOD and SOI are currently in a mode that we usually see with a more robust El Niño pattern. So maybe the SST’s become more Niño-like back toward Niño 3.4 and 4. The current split has cold near South America and warm west. Right now the 500 mb pattern is a blend of Niño and Niña features. Yeah, and that's actually very interesting. It sounds a lot like an El Nino Modoki type 2, if that were to happen. There's a paper on that, in fact. Your post reminded me to look into that again. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00107.1 "For El Niño Modoki II (the third column of Fig. 4), the warm SST anomalies first appear in the subtropical northeastern Pacific in spring and then further develop, reaching the equatorial central Pacific. The SST anomaly pattern in El Niño Modoki II resembles the Pacific meridional mode shown by Chiang and Vimont (2004)" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 No shortage of rain here in Europe. Left NYC on 9/26 and had at least some rain every single day since. In Iceland now, finally got a mostly dry day today, but it featured sustained winds of 30-50mph with gusts to 80mph. Exciting! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 26 minutes ago, ict1523 said: No shortage of rain here in Europe. Left NYC on 9/26 and had at least some rain every single day since. In Iceland now, finally got a mostly dry day today, but it featured sustained winds of 30-50mph with gusts to 80mph. Exciting! another bomb on monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 Down it goes on temps out this way. Just finished mowing and it was rather cool. 47 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 The coldest air mass so far this season has moved into the region. New York City and Philadelphia will likely see low temperatures in the 40s. Outside the cities, readings in the 30s and frost are likely. Some of the coldest areas could dip below 30°. In the South, record heat continued for another day. However, the historic autumn heat wave is now coming to an end. Records for today included: Athens, GA: 99° Atlanta: 97° Augusta, GA: 101° (new October record) Baton Rouge, LA: 97° (tied October record set on 10/1/1904 and tied on 10/2/1904) Birmingham: 98° ***9th consecutive daily record high temperature*** Columbia, SC: 100° Columbus, GA: 101° (new October record) Crestview, FL: 100° Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 97° Lake Charles, LA: 96° Macon, GA: 103° (new October record) ***11th consecutive daily record high temperature*** Meridian, MS: 101° ***4th consecutive 100° or above temperature*** Mobile, AL: 98° (tied October record set 10/3/2019) Montgomery, AL: 102° (tied October record set 10/3/2019) ***10th consecutive daily record high temperature*** New Orleans: 97° (new October record) Savannah: 97° (tied October record set 10/2/1986) Tallahassee: 97° (tied October record set 10/3/2019) Wilmington, NC: 97° In addition, today was Atlanta's 91st day of the year with a high temperature of 90° or above. That surpassed the annual record of 90 days, which was set in 1980 and tied in 2011. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around September 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. The recent strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have continued to increase. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -19.79 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.028. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after the second week in October. While the timing is far out, the EPS weeklies also suggest that the warmth could roll into the start of November. On October 3, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.675 (RMM). The October 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.725. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 59%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Down to 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 The EURO Control looks super cold late October. and first half of November. 500mb Heights go 300m BN at times. When it catches on to the SSW which has been taking place all summer, blocking will set in. At any rate, you can throw out the EURO according to JB. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 I was driving on the southern state earlier today from out east and the drought is pretty severe in western Suffolk. Allot of trees that have turned brown which is generally a sign they are dead. The ones that have turned colors are just stressed. It wasn’t confined to just oaks which have their own problems but a number of species. Once to the Nassau border things greened up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Down to 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 Current temp is 46 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 61degs., or about 2degs. AN. 47.1* here at 7am. 46.9* near 7:30pm. was the low. 49.3* by 9am. Back to 50.0* by 9:30am. 51.2* by 10am. 55.0* by Noon. Both the GFS/EURO are 75---80 on Monday but, GFS is 1.5" from Tues-Fri and EURO is 3.5". EURO hooks up with ocean feature on Thurs. PM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Current temp and low of 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 38f in croton. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 October 5th is the earliest this decade that NYC reached 45 degrees or colder. First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference Minimum 04-23 (2011) 10-08 (2012) 150 Mean 05-07 10-18 164 Maximum 05-25 (2013) 10-27 (2011) 186 2012 04-30 (2012) 43 10-08 (2012) 44 160 2016 05-16 (2016) 43 10-15 (2016) 45 151 2015 04-25 (2015) 38 10-17 (2015) 42 174 2017 05-13 (2017) 45 10-17 (2017) 42 156 2018 04-30 (2018) 44 10-18 (2018) 42 170 2014 04-30 (2014) 41 10-19 (2014) 44 171 2010 05-13 (2010) 43 10-23 (2010) 44 162 2013 05-25 (2013) 45 10-23 (2013) 45 150 2011 04-23 (2011) 43 10-27 (2011) 38 186 2019 05-15 (2019) 44 - - - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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