JustinRP37 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 7 hours ago, Rtd208 said: DT (WxRisk) preliminary winter forecast. https://www.wxrisk.com/preliminary-winter-forecast-2019-20/?fbclid=IwAR3kWGEXLUDXikbzKa0BzB3HfYOQf1E5_-FZawoRQgIFqEzMz5pYB7pO2hE These are always a crap shoot. The solar discussion I think was given way too much weight. Just kind of glossed over the fact that thus far this decade is MUCH above normal for snowfall throughout most of the region, yet the information presented showed us as being towards a solar max for a good chunk of it (especially the snowier years of 14-15. DT though is far better that JB in tempering winter forecasts. With JB it is always going to be historically cold and snowy because that is his 'narrative'. It is still very much a crapshoot I think for this winter, which DT did allude to. I would place much more money on this being a normal temperature year with normal to just below normal snowfall again for the Tri-State. Of course, lately it just takes one monster storm to put us solidly AN for snowfall, so that is a wildcard. On another note, talk about a massive temperature shift. This was incredible. I literally flew from Miami to Maine without ever boarding an aircraft between yesterday and today. My one year old is sick with a severe cold and ear infection. It was nuts brining him to the Dr. yesterday with temps in the mid 90s and then today we will need heavier jackets. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 Big bust on the rains today-what little rain there was is ending up north of what models had and is about 1/10 of what was predicted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 Portions of the Southeast upgraded to extreme drought today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 49 and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The IOD is just 1 piece of the puzzle going forward this year. How will the IOD interact with the ENSO? + IOD events usually occur with with El Niño’s. We currently also have a more Nino-like -SOI. There is a very strong +PMM and +NPM. While ENSO is currently neutral, some warming has been occurring in recent weeks. What if any influence will it have in the MJO? What about the stratosphere and phase of the NAO? It's a smorgasbord of mixed signals for the upcoming winter...it could honestly go either way. What a nightmare to forecast as last year proved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's a smorgasbord of mixed signals for the upcoming winter...it could honestly go either way. What a nightmare to forecast as last year proved. Need to get rid of the fast Pac Jet and big SE Ridge-those 2 alone killed us last year. If we have Blocking, we could live with the fast jet-yet another wildcard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's a smorgasbord of mixed signals for the upcoming winter...it could honestly go either way. What a nightmare to forecast as last year proved. We need to stop trying 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 3, 2019 Author Share Posted October 3, 2019 Picked up 0.16" of rain so far today. Current temp 55 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 40 degrees colder than yday now. Quite the shock to the system. Dreary low to mid 50s day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 39 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: We need to stop trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 59 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's a smorgasbord of mixed signals for the upcoming winter...it could honestly go either way. What a nightmare to forecast as last year proved. All the winters this decade have presented new combinations of competing extremes. The timing of the general pattern progressions have sometimes been correctly forecast in advance. But the nature and magnitude of the extremes have often been a surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 Loving the cool temps today. As for this winter, I don't envy those who are putting forecasts out. The tangle of factors and the consistent failures of long-range modeling make it dangerously close to a waste of time, imo. If we get to Thanksgiving and the Euro Weeklies are showing a massive ridge for New Years then I might start to get excited for a big winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said: Loving the cool temps today. As for this winter, I don't envy those who are putting forecasts out. The tangle of factors and the consistent failures of long-range modeling make it dangerously close to a waste of time, imo. If we get to Thanksgiving and the Euro Weeklies are showing a massive ridge for New Years then I might start to get excited for a big winter. LOL. Remember how bad the weeklies were last year? Just awful showing the goods every run only to be wrong the entire winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: LOL. Remember how bad the weeklies were last year? Just awful showing the goods every run only to be wrong the entire winter It was cruel, and it only got worse when our perfect pattern arrived just in time to ruin the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: LOL. Remember how bad the weeklies were last year? Just awful showing the goods every run only to be wrong the entire winter Don't even know why people even pay attention to them...we joke about day 10 outlooks on the models but have some faith in weekly outlooks going out a month? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, doncat said: Don't even know why people even pay attention to them...we joke about day 10 outlooks on the models but have some faith in weekly outlooks going out a month? it's a tool-some look at them as gospel, but you have to take them, along with any other model, Met opinion etc as one of many things to use to forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: We need to stop trying If at first you don't succeed... Give up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 Our first 40 degree temperature drop in 24 hours during October. The high of 96 between hours makes it an even 40 degrees. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=24&month=oct&dir=cool&dpi=100&_fmt=png 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 Well, I didn’t there would be an October 90 reading, and I was wrong. I was thinking how long it had been since locations in the PHL and NYC areas had had an October 90 degree reading, plus how the models were fluctuating on where the big heat would be. But abnormal has now become normal. Have to keep that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 95 to 57 and +DZ is definitely one of the weirder 24h weather sequences I've personally witnessed. Check out the supercells in PA right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 first day with drizzle here since way back in June during that wet damp period in the middle of the month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: first day with drizzle here since way back in June during that wet damp period in the middle of the month... I hadn't thought of that, I think you're right. Huh, that's a good stretch without a totally miserable day. Good observation. 4 hours ago, dWave said: 40 degrees colder than yday now. Quite the shock to the system. Dreary mid 40s day. FIFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 Did manage 0.32" from the light rain/drizzle today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 Up to a balmy 60 today off of 95 on wed. First raw cloudy all day spritz day like this since July 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 In the wake of yesterday's historic October heat, much cooler air returned to the region. Under clouds and occasional rain, readings remained in the 50s from New Jersey into New England. Meanwhile, farther south, the historic autumn heat toppled additional daily and monthly records. Today, Raleigh reached 100°, its latest 100° reading on record. The previous latest such reading occurred on September 10, 2007 when the temperature also hit 100°. As a result of today's October record high temperature, Raleigh's highest annual temperature for this year will occur in October for the first time on record. Raleigh's records go back to 1887. With its 101° degree high temperature, Birmingham registered its 8th consecutive daily record high temperature. Previously, the city had two 7-day stretches (September 3-9, 1925 and May 16-22, 1962). Birmingham also recorded its highest annual temperature for 2019 in October, the first time that occurred. Records there go back to 1895. Records included: Athens, GA: 100° (new October record) Atlanta: 98° (new October record) Augusta, GA: 100° (new October record) Birmingham: 101° Charlotte: 98° Chattanooga, TN: 100° (tied October record set yesterday) Columbia, SC: 100° Columbus, GA: 100° (tied October record) Crestview, FL: 101° (new October record) Elizabeth City, NC: 96°(new October record) Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 98° (new October record) Huntsville, AL: 100°(tied October record set yesterday) Macon, GA: 102° (new October record) Mobile: 98° (new October record) Montgomery, AL: 102° (new October record) Nashville: 99° (tied October record set yesterday) Pensacola: 97° (new October record) Raleigh: 100° (new October record) Richmond: 97° Savannah: 96° Tallahassee: 97° (new October record) Tuscaloosa, AL: 101° (tied October record set yesterday) Wilmington, NC: 98° (new October record) Today was also Atlanta's 90th 90° or above temperature this year. That ties the annual record set in 1980 and tied in 2011. Today was also Atlanta's 13th 90° or above temperature after September 15. The previous record was 11, which was set just last year. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around September 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. The recent strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have continued to increase. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -20.44 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.423. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after the second week in October. While the timing is far out, the EPS weeklies also suggest that the warmth could roll into the start of November. On October 2, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.729 (RMM). The October 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.758. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 59%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 4 hours ago, EasternLI said: If at first you don't succeed... Give up? Its a crapshoot not a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 Winds veered to the southeast now and temp up to 63 here in Sheepshead Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 4, 2019 Author Share Posted October 4, 2019 Current temp is 61 here. Picked up 0.27" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 Despite today's cool down I still see a mild pattern with plenty of ridging nearby and heights crashing out west. We should be back into the mid to upper 70s by Sun or Monday. Lows will be well AN with highs hovering AN too. This was a mere pattern shift, not a big change. We'll probably have to wait till mid November or later for a big change. I suspect we'll see plenty more 75+ readings before the month ends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: In the wake of yesterday's historic October heat, much cooler air returned to the region. Under clouds and occasional rain, readings remained in the 50s from New Jersey into New England. Meanwhile, farther south, the historic autumn heat toppled additional daily and monthly records. Today, Raleigh reached 100°, its latest 100° reading on record. The previous latest such reading occurred on September 10, 2007 when the temperature also hit 100°. As a result of today's October record high temperature, Raleigh's highest annual temperature for this year will occur in October for the first time on record. Raleigh's records go back to 1887. With its 101° degree high temperature, Birmingham registered its 8th consecutive daily record high temperature. Previously, the city had two 7-day stretches (September 3-9, 1925 and May 16-22, 1962). Birmingham also recorded its highest annual temperature for 2019 in October, the first time that occurred. Records there go back to 1895. Records included: Athens, GA: 100° (new October record) Atlanta: 98° (new October record) Augusta, GA: 100° (new October record) Birmingham: 101° Charlotte: 98° Chattanooga, TN: 100° (tied October record set yesterday) Columbia, SC: 100° Columbus, GA: 100° (tied October record) Crestview, FL: 101° (new October record) Elizabeth City, NC: 96°(new October record) Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 98° (new October record) Huntsville, AL: 100°(tied October record set yesterday) Macon, GA: 102° (new October record) Mobile: 98° (new October record) Montgomery, AL: 102° (new October record) Nashville: 99° (tied October record set yesterday) Pensacola: 97° (new October record) Raleigh: 100° (new October record) Richmond: 97° Savannah: 96° Tallahassee: 97° (new October record) Tuscaloosa, AL: 101° (tied October record set yesterday) Wilmington, NC: 98° (new October record) Today was also Atlanta's 90th 90° or above temperature this year. That ties the annual record set in 1980 and tied in 2011. Today was also Atlanta's 13th 90° or above temperature after September 15. The previous record was 11, which was set just last year. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around September 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. The recent strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have continued to increase. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -20.44 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.423. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after the second week in October. While the timing is far out, the EPS weeklies also suggest that the warmth could roll into the start of November. On October 2, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.729 (RMM). The October 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.758. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 59%. Don, I think we should rank historic heatwaves the same way we rank historic snowstorms. We should develop a NESIS scale for heatwaves that includes extent and extremes (90 and 100 degree days plus deviations from normal). Would this be one of the most anomalous and historic heatwaves? Also, how close did NYC come to experiencing a long duration heatwave? I noticed that for much of the warm season we had cooler air coming in from the NE and the most severe heat was just to our south (Baltimore had a historic number of 90 degree days). Do you think a minor tweak in the indices would have given us what the South got this year? I was shocked, here on the south shore we got to 95 degrees and a 100 heat index- I wonder if that's the latest that's ever happened at JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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