SnoSki14 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 STW now up for north/western sections. Not too surprising, the severe is mainly shear/lift driven vs instability so there's a good chance it gets to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Severe thunderstorm watches just posted for areas north and west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Radars in central PA looking fairly impressive at this time with the squall line now passing to the east of the Harrisburg area. Ground obs are indicating that the strongest winds are remaining aloft however. Wind gusts in that area have maxed out in the 30 to 40 mph range so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Wind gusts in the dry slot out ahead of that feature are gusting up to 26 mph where I am in eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Radars in central PA looking fairly impressive at this time with the squall line now passing to the east of the Harrisburg area. Ground obs are indicating that the strongest winds are remaining aloft however. Wind gusts in that area have maxed out in the 30 to 40 mph range so far. Winds at 850 mb are supposed to dramatically increase over the next few hours (HRRR shows 850 winds briefly topping 90 mph) but at the same time convection will decrease as it moves into this general area. We'll see if we can mix down any significant winds here as we tend to do well with southerly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Strongest wind gust I have seen on the south shore recently is 48 mph at Oak Beach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 I just heard a strong wind gust in Manhattan. It's not raining though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 KOKX AFD Updated at 8:33pm: NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Severe thunderstorm watch 691 is in effect until 1 am for NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. A low topped line of convection is approaching along the strong cold front across upstate NY and eastern PA. The line of convection should enter northern NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley 02-04z and then quickly move east towards the Hudson River Corridor. Instability is marginal, but strong low-level flow and shear may help bring down severe wind gusts in the low topped convection. It is entirely possible that no lightning is observed when this line moves through. High resolution models indicate the line weakens as it approaches the NYC metro and then the remnants of the line race across Long Island and southern Connecticut. The strong low level jet, 65-75 kt at 925 mb will cross eastern portions of the area this evening and into the overnight. Despite the weakening of the convection, these strong winds just above the surface may come down with turbulent mixing with the frontal passage 06 to 08z east of the city. It may be difficult to mix some of the higher winds above the surface down initially with inversion observed on the 00z OKX sounding. However, gusts gradually increase this evening as winds at the top of the mixed layer are around 50 kt. Could still see gusts over 45 mph before the actual front and stronger momentum arrives. Wind headlines have not changed since previous forecast. Strongest winds still appear likely across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut where the high wind warning remains in effect. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, but the best chance of seeing this is likely across the Lower Hudson Valley and NE NJ, with weakening of the line of showers thereafter. Rainfall amounts are likely to drop off significantly across Long Island and southern Connecticut. Temperatures in the mid to upper 60s with some low 70s possible ahead of the front. Temperatures will drop rapidly behind the front and could be in the 40s west of NYC and low 50s east by daybreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 31 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Radars in central PA looking fairly impressive at this time with the squall line now passing to the east of the Harrisburg area. Ground obs are indicating that the strongest winds are remaining aloft however. Wind gusts in that area have maxed out in the 30 to 40 mph range so far. Models are pretty unanimous that it falls apart as it moves through NJ. That would limit what strong winds can mix down. There may be some 50mph gusts but not the same as if we had the full squall line coming through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 68/67, steamy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 1, 2019 Author Share Posted November 1, 2019 The line of storms out in E.PA is impressive for this time of year. It will probably weaken a bit as it crosses into NJ but strong winds and heavy rain still possible as temps begin the drop rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Clouds are booking it. Impressive LLJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Harrisburg has picked up 1.87" rain between 8 pm and 9 pm from heavy thunderstorms. That hourly rainfall beat the old daily record for October 31 of 1.33", which was set in 1939. Through 9:15 pm, Harrisburg had picked up 2.54" rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Still 74 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Still 73 here with a recent wind gust to 33 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 67F here. Been 68 give or take .5 since mid day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Getting some good gusts. JFK gusting to 43mph last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 35 mph just ahead of the bow echo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Friend just landed at JFK said turbulence was really bad around 3k feet plane was getting bounced around real hard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Getting some good gusts. JFK gusting to 43mph last hour 39.4 at the wantagh meso. Decent but still pretty meh after the event earlier this month. Let’s see if my theory of the winds dropping under the heaviest rain verifies. If it does strongest winds will be right ahead of the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Some strong gusts here in S Huntington, some have to be pushing 40. HRRR says we should have a shot at 50-55mph when what's left of the line comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: 39.4 at the wantagh meso. Decent but still pretty meh after the event earlier this month. Let’s see if my theory of the winds dropping under the heaviest rain verifies. If it does strongest winds will be right ahead of the line Your theory has verified out here. Strongest gust to 36 mph just before the squall line hit. Still gusts to about 20 mph with heavy rain, lightning and thunder as it passes through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Temps will drop rapidly with the passage of the front, down thru the 40's by morning...Still will be 70° for some at midnight for a cheap high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Many stations reporting gusts of 40 - 50 mph along the south shore now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 tree down on the bronx river near scarsdale had to detour, gusts are around 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 LAG gusted to 40 and JFK 45 according to the 11pm obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Farmingdale 46 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Gusting between 30-40 mph here in Syosset consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 47mph gust here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 1, 2019 Author Share Posted November 1, 2019 Tornado Warning down in the Philly area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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