IrishRob17 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 8 hours ago, Gravity Wave said: I think this has been discussed a lot on here before but isn't the general consensus that the sample size of winters with notable October-November snowfalls for the NYC area is too small to draw any meaningful conclusions about how such a winter will turn out? 7 hours ago, doncat said: Yes sample size too small, plus there's no meteorological reason why getting an early snow would affect the following three months. Agreed but weenies are gonna ween 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 13 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Agreed but weenies are gonna ween Yeah I mean it's a fun little quirk...like a twilight zone kinda thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 63 with some light showers around. Heavy rain expected this evening with warm temps approaching 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: 63 with some light showers around. Heavy rain expected this evening with warm temps approaching 70. looks like a window of dry early evening and especially places east of NYC....main show after midnight with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: looks like a window of dry early evening and especially places east of NYC....main show after midnight with the front. Oh ok that’s good news, have to pick up my son from my moms house I don’t like it when it rains he’s still a newborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 43 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Agreed but weenies are gonna ween It’s interesting how many early record snowstorms we have had since 2008. The snowfall seasons that followed were quite variable on Long Island. But NYC didn’t do as well. Early snow date.....NYC seasonal snow.....ISP seasonal snow 10-28-08....27.6...36.2 10-29-11....7.4.....4.7 11-08-12....26.1...46.9 11-16-18....20.5...12.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 Current temp 66/DP 65/RH 95% Picked up 0.28" of rain so far today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 3 hours ago, bluewave said: It’s interesting how many early record snowstorms we have had since 2008. The snowfall seasons that followed were quite variable on Long Island. But NYC didn’t do as well. Early snow date.....NYC seasonal snow.....ISP seasonal snow 10-28-08....27.6...36.2 10-29-11....7.4.....4.7 11-08-12....26.1...46.9 11-16-18....20.5...12.8 FWIW those same seasons IMBY: 08-09: 37.5" 11-12: 23.5" 12-13: 54.6" 18-19: 41" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Ewr's wettest October since the 13" in 2005. We had several tropical systems that month of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just buried in leaves here in wantagh. Several days without wind and an incoming wind storm will do that. Oaks aren’t there yet but maples are at peak here. If we get heavy rain later there’s going to be street flooding from clogged drains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 You know it’s tropical out there when we hit 70 on Halloween and it’s cloudy. Newark/Liberty LGT RAIN 70 67 90 S15G22 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=global2×pan=24hrs&anim=html5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 On 10/28/2019 at 12:49 PM, jfklganyc said: Really? You must like your house mighty cold up there in Mahwah then. I’m right across the river and we have had plenty of mornings in the 40s and 50s and that central heat is blasting when I wake up Even this morning, when it was 50, it was on. I prefer it to be cold in the house. It's much better for you to sleep that way anyway. And my home is well insulated. Not only have we not turned on the heat yet, we normally sleep with at least one of the bedroom windows open and the fan on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 How often do you see a freeze warning posted for the same areas where the temperature is currently in the 60's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 The HRRR and 3k NAM have consistently shown the squall line weakening as it crosses NJ. I would definitely temper my expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: All the snowflakes on social media that were trying to get Halloween moved to Saturday because of a little rain today were ridiculous. The current batch should be out of here by early afternoon and then it should be great trick or treating weather until very late tonight after all the kids have gone to bed anyway. I was happy our town didn't change anything-screws up weekend plans etc. Agree, it will be mostly rain free especially east of the city. Warm too-it will be comfortable out there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Just buried in leaves here in wantagh. Several days without wind and an incoming wind storm will do that. Oaks aren’t there yet but maples are at peak here. If we get heavy rain later there’s going to be street flooding from clogged drains my least favorite time here-we are past peak so it's brown leaves everywhere and mess on the lawn, driveway and storm drains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Hoping the winds tomorrow blow the last of the leaves out of my yard. In regards to towns moving Halloween, which IMO is ridiculous unless is some sort of town sponsored Halloween event, what happens if some kid decides to go trick-or-treating anyway? How do you even enforce that? Why would you want to? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Winds beginning to pick up now with 35 mph gusts at JFK. Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 66 66 100 S25G35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: Winds beginning to pick up now with 35 mph gusts at JFK. Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 66 66 100 S25G35 I think we will see a 50+ at jfk later. Great setup for the south shore to see strong winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I was happy our town didn't change anything-screws up weekend plans etc. Agree, it will be mostly rain free especially east of the city. Warm too-it will be comfortable out there lol 4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Hoping the winds tomorrow blow the last of the leaves out of my yard. In regards to towns moving Halloween, which IMO is ridiculous unless is some sort of town sponsored Halloween event, what happens if some kid decides to go trick-or-treating anyway? How do you even enforce that? Why would you want to? The years we had the snowstorm and Sandy, they moved Halloween which was understandable. But moving it because of a little rain is beyond absurd and a reflection on where we are today as a society IMO. For areas farther to our SW where they are expecting legit severe weather I'm not sure how you handle that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Hoping the winds tomorrow blow the last of the leaves out of my yard. In regards to towns moving Halloween, which IMO is ridiculous unless is some sort of town sponsored Halloween event, what happens if some kid decides to go trick-or-treating anyway? How do you even enforce that? Why would you want to? it was interesting, that's what my town said-they said it's not a town sponsored event so it's on, but use discretion as needed. (we're all adults, if there was a situation (thunder/lightning heavy rains) where it didn't make sense to go out, we can judge that) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: NYC always appears to rip squall lines in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: Winds beginning to pick up now with 35 mph gusts at JFK. Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 66 66 100 S25G35 Partly sunny? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cfa said: NYC always appears to rip squall lines in half. Big buildings and it’s elevation will do that just like mountains rip out hurricanes! Maybe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Big buildings and it’s elevation will do that just like mountains rip out hurricanes! Maybe south winds coming off the stable ocean waters to the east most likely.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 10 minutes ago, Cfa said: NYC always appears to rip squall lines in half. I think the strongest winds will just be ahead of that line so those strong winds could mix down as the line falls apart. Also great discussion out of Mt. Holly regarding tonight's setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I think we will see a 50+ at jfk later. Great setup for the south shore to see strong winds Looks like 2 chances for 50+ gusts along the South Shore tonight. The first will be right ahead of the front. Behind the front the mesos have a second LLJ max in the CAA with rapid pressure rises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 18 hours ago, Snow88 said: It doesnt mean the winter will stink 88 I think history has shown us that early season snowstorms are usually followed by a lot of disappointment for snow lovers like us the rest of the season = last year was the most recent sad example,,,,,,,,, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Big buildings and it’s elevation will do that just like mountains rip out hurricanes! Maybe For whatever reason the models are weakening the shear as the line approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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