Mr. Kevin Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: With persistent drizzle and light rain, New York City has picked up 0.04" precipitation today. That brings the year-to-date total to 43.36". As a result, 2019 has moved past 1992, when 43.35" precipitation was recorded, to become the 83rd wettest year on record. Records go back to 1869. Hi Don. Wanted to first off say i respect you as a weather knowledge person. I appreciate your time and dedication to the forums. I do have a few questions. What is your confidence level on a warmer than average winter? I am still hearing varying opinions from very respected weather professionals, like yourself. Its still a little early to really know, but you may have a good idea. Not sure. I hope its not like last winter, which started off good, but ended really warm. Also, what would be the most realistic analog unless its still too early to even guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 21 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: Hi Don. Wanted to first off say i respect you as a weather knowledge person. I appreciate your time and dedication to the forums. I do have a few questions. What is your confidence level on a warmer than average winter? I am still hearing varying opinions from very respected weather professionals, like yourself. Its still a little early to really know, but you may have a good idea. Not sure. I hope its not like last winter, which started off good, but ended really warm. Also, what would be the most realistic analog unless its still too early to even guess. Thanks for the kind words. It’s still too soon to be sure, but a warmer outcome may be more likely than a cold one. Snowfall looks more promising, though. Still, critical details remain to be determined, so there’s considerable uncertainty. I am aware of thoughts about a cold winter, but the assumptions there are a weak El Niño. I am thinking that a neutral ENSO is more likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 The last 2 days of October are averaging 64degs., or about 12degs., AN. Month to date is +2.5[59.7]. October should end near +3.1[60.0]. 59.0* to 60.0* here 6am-7am, some Fog,>1mi. The first 6 days of November are averaging 50degs., or just Normal. Nov. 1-15 looks BN for 3/4 of the US. West Coast and Florida are out of the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 With the light rain that fell overnight, Newark's year-to-date precipitation has reached 49.89". That surpassed 1972, when 49.86" fell, to make 2019 Newark's 19th wettest year on record. This morning, Chicago was reporting its first snow of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Dewpoints may approach near record high levels in spots for so late in the season with the Halloween storm. The highest dewpoint that I could find at JFK for November is 65 degrees. The Euro gets close to this early on the 1st. A tropical air mass could also be more convective. So we have to monitor later runs for convection strong enough to mix down the extremely strong LLJ in the heaviest downpours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 12z NAM ends most of the steady rain in the morning tomorrow. 3K nam keeps it until about 4-5pm. Both models have an opening of less rainy weather in the evening. 7pm 3K NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Dewpoints may approach near record high levels in spots for so late in the season with the Halloween storm. The highest dewpoint that I could find at JFK for November is 65 degrees. The Euro gets close to this early on the 1st. A tropical air mass could also be more convective. So we have to monitor later runs for convection strong enough to mix down the extremely strong LLJ in the heaviest downpours. It seems that the strongest winds are always pre squall line in these events. one notable exception being some time in the 90s I remember an extremely strong fall squall line that brought damaging wind gusts in wantagh. I vividly remember the whole sky being filled with blowing leaves. This wasn’t the November southerly wind storm that brought 70mph gusts. Well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It seems that the strongest winds are always pre squall line in these events. one notable exception being some time in the 90s I remember an extremely strong fall squall line that brought damaging wind gusts in wantagh. I vividly remember the whole sky being filled with blowing leaves. This wasn’t the November southerly wind storm that brought 70mph gusts. Well see Development of convection that holds together is always the wild card in determining our wind gust potential in these situations. The gradient looks tight enough for southerly gusts in the 40-50 mph range on Long Island ahead of the front. Could see similar winds immediately behind the front. But more significant gusts usually require an intense squall line holding together that can mix down the stronger winds. Either way, the leaf blowers should be busy this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Wind Advisory posted for Long Island including Brooklyn and Queens URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 404 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019 CTZ005>012-NYZ075-078>081-176>179-311000- /O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.191101T0000Z-191101T1000Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Kings (Brooklyn)- Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk- Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau- Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 404 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 8 PM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday. * WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * TIMING...Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 I would watch for a snow event around our region from November 14-16th timeframe. Nor’easter type snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I would watch for a snow event around our region from November 14-16th timeframe. Nor’easter type snowstorm Maybe before that with the cold air in place. 2nd half of November should be mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 35 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I would watch for a snow event around our region from November 14-16th timeframe. Nor’easter type snowstorm No thanks. Last year it snowed 11/15 and that was it for 3 months... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Maybe before that with the cold air in place. 2nd half of November should be mild. 52 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No thanks. Last year it snowed 11/15 and that was it for 3 months... Snow is snow I just don’t like snow in October cause it’s dangerous! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: No thanks. Last year it snowed 11/15 and that was it for 3 months... It doesnt mean the winter will stink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: No thanks. Last year it snowed 11/15 and that was it for 3 months... I doubt there's any causality to early season snows vs how winter will turn out. Personally I'd love a Thanksgiving snowstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 36 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It doesnt mean the winter will stink More often than not, it does. Cue Don Sutherland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 12 minutes ago, TriPol said: More often than not, it does. Cue Don Sutherland. 13-14 was a decent winter We just haven't had a lot of big snowstorms prior to December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 54 minutes ago, TriPol said: More often than not, it does. Cue Don Sutherland. There isnt alot of correlation between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Snow is snow I just don’t like snow in October cause it’s dangerous! Snow is dangerous whenever it happens. Yes leaves make power grids fail, but accidents always spike when it snows regardless of if it is in October or December. Second, there will still be plenty of leaves on trees in the NYC metro even the first few weeks of November. I still have plenty of oaks and even a few maples around campus that are still green. I love snow much more than spring or fall, but let’s not pretend there isn’t always risk, hence why schools and businesses close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: There isnt alot of correlation between the two. You want to bet the over on that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Dan76 said: You want to bet the over on that? For what ? Plenty of meteorologists told me that. I'm just going by what I heard . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Earlier today Chicago picked up 1.2" snow. That set a new October 30 daily record. The previous record was 0.7", which was set in 1923. The only other measurable snowfall on October 30 was 0.5" in 1906. Measurable snowfall of 0.5" or more in October has typically preceded winters with below normal snowfall in Chicago. Since 1884, there have been 11 years with 0.5" or more daily snowfall in October: 1906, 1913, 1917, 1923, 1925, 1929, 1952, 1957, 1967, 1972, and 1989. If one limits the cases to 1" or more daily snowfall, the numbers are as follows: - Less than 30": 5/8 (63%) cases - Less than 40": 6/8 (75%) cases - 50" or more: 2/8 (25%) cases Median snowfall was 28.9" The total November-December snowfall has often differentiated whether or not the winter would be snowy. In the 6 cases with less than 8" total November-December snowfall, all 6 had less than 30" seasonal snowfall. In the remaining 5 cases with 8" or more total November-December snowfall, all cases had 30" or more seasonal snowfall and 3/5 (60%) had 50" or more seasonal snowfall. Based on the historical data, today's snowfall may suggest a pattern evolution that would lead to below normal seasonal snowfall for Chicago. However, the probability of such an outcome would increase or decrease based on total November-December snowfall. Generally warmer than normal conditions will persist through the end of the month. A strong cold front will likely move across the region late tomorrow night or Friday, possibly with a strong squall line. Ahead of and following the frontal passage, conditions warranting a wind advisory will be likely. This initial push of cooler air will likely yield to milder conditions after a few days. An even stronger push of cold air could occur during the second week of November. After mid-month, a prolonged period of above and occasionally much above normal temperatures could develop. Uncertainty about the second half of November has increased in recent days. Nevertheless, the base case remains a warmer than normal November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.43°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was -12.57 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.174. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On October 29, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.952 (RMM). The October 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.823. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 59.9°. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is currently near 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 I think this has been discussed a lot on here before but isn't the general consensus that the sample size of winters with notable October-November snowfalls for the NYC area is too small to draw any meaningful conclusions about how such a winter will turn out? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 23 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: I think this has been discussed a lot on here before but isn't the general consensus that the sample size of winters with notable October-November snowfalls for the NYC area is too small to draw any meaningful conclusions about how such a winter will turn out? Yes sample size too small, plus there's no meteorological reason why getting an early snow would affect the following three months. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 Impressive. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 Current temp 61/DP 60/RH 95% Picked up 0.16" of rain so far today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 The last day of October is averaging 66degs, or about 13 degs. AN. Month to date is +2.7[59.7]. October should end at +3.0[59.9]. The first week of November is averaging 51degs., or about 1deg. AN. PM Update on the first 7> 49degs. or about 1deg. BN. 61.7* here at 6am. 65.7* by Noon. 66.0* by 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Personally I'd love a Thanksgiving snowstorm. I had 10" the day before T-giving 2014. It was more of a hassle than it was worth and left me with a couple hundred dollars worth of extra food because people didn't come up for dinner the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: I doubt there's any causality to early season snows vs how winter will turn out. Personally I'd love a Thanksgiving snowstorm. Third week. before that winter sucks. After that winter is good. No science that I know behind it Just looking at historical data there was one winter with an early snow and AN for year...thanks to march storm Be careful what you wish for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 7 hours ago, doncat said: Yes sample size too small, plus there's no meteorological reason why getting an early snow would affect the following three months. We have records going back to the 1880s Nothing small about it. It is right there to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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