gravitylover Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: Do you think we have an active winter in the East ? Active? Yes. The part about wet or white can't be answered until March or so 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 12Z NAM valid 8pm Halloween-gives hope that most areas will be rain free for awhile: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 43 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I always forget that ToT is a real thing folks do. Been at least 20 years since I've had anyone come around. It flourishes still in NYC, hordes of kids shepherding adults in silly costumes. Fortunately nobody has to walk far from one apartment block to the next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 47 minutes ago, etudiant said: It flourishes still in NYC, hordes of kids shepherding adults in silly costumes. Fortunately nobody has to walk far from one apartment block to the next. same here in the burbs. Hundreds of kids here. There was some talk of moving it to the last Sat or Sun of Oct-too many people rushing home from work during the week, driving fast etc but it never got off the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Pretty cool ride into the city seeing the tallest towers in Long Island city in the clouds. Ceiling is super low at somewhere around 700’. This is something you used to just see in Manhattan. The pattern of extremes continues. Amazing how fast we flipped that mini drought. I have a feeling this corresponds to this winter with feast or famine periods. Lots of winter is over calls or it’s never going to snow expected.- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 52 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Pretty cool ride into the city seeing the tallest towers in Long Island city in the clouds. Ceiling is super low at somewhere around 700’. This is something you used to just see in Manhattan. The pattern of extremes continues. Amazing how fast we flipped that mini drought. I have a feeling this corresponds to this winter with feast or famine periods. Lots of winter is over calls or it’s never going to snow expected.- Whats causing ceiling to be so low? The east wind? It's partly sunny down here (literally down in this case lol.) There was a plane crash in our area..... This reminds me of early summer and we're waiting for the sun to "burn" through lol. It almost is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Whats causing ceiling to be so low? The east wind? It's partly sunny down here (literally down in this case lol.) There was a plane crash in our area..... This reminds me of early summer and we're waiting for the sun to "burn" through lol. It almost is. Yeah destroyed a house. Nobody home but whoever was on the Cessna couldn't have survived 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Euro still has gusts 50-60+ for the NYC area and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro still has gusts 50-60+ for the NYC area and LI. chop those by 20-25% Euro is often over-done on winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: chop those by 20-25% Euro is often over-done on winds Yeah I would think 35-45mph. Which is plenty strong to knock down a ton of leaves. Mix that with heavy rain and it’s a street flooding situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: chop those by 20-25% Euro is often over-done on winds It was right with the last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Big time cold shot next week on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: It was right with the last storm generally over done though if you look at the past 5 years.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah I would think 35-45mph. Which is plenty strong to knock down a ton of leaves. Mix that with heavy rain and it’s a street flooding situation good thing the squall line comes through after Halloween evening....that would not be fun to be hit by that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Wind advisories will likely be hoisted given the trends, maybe HWW for eastern sections though looks borderline right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think gusts to 50 mph or higher are a good bet for Long Island. The 12 km NAM is usually more conservative with the gusts and has this potential. especially the south facing beaches...I'd say those are the favored spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Euro has really impressive gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I saw that the area is seeing a string of record low maximums- some have highs in the single digits? Thats crazy for late October, even out there! I think the all time record low temp for the lower 48 in October was set at Peter Sinks, Utah yesterday (-35!!!), breaking the record from 1917. It might get broken again tomorrow morning too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 10 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: I think the all time record low temp for the lower 48 in October was set at Peter Sinks, Utah yesterday (-35!!!), breaking the record from 1917. It might get broken again tomorrow morning too. If it's verified. There's a quality control check that will need to be conducted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah I would think 35-45mph. Which is plenty strong to knock down a ton of leaves. Mix that with heavy rain and it’s a street flooding situation Thankfully we've lost almost all the leaves up here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 there should be a dense fog advisory for the whole area. model soundings tonight are a slam dunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 58 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: If it's verified. There's a quality control check that will need to be conducted. OK, thanks for the update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Probably the most extreme temperature dipole across the the US for the month of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Probably the most extreme temperature dipole across the the US for the month of October. If that’s a possible picture of the battlefield in the coming season, heaven help the neutral middle. As alwAys ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Generally warmer than normal conditions will persist through the end of the month. A strong cold front will likely move across the region late Thursday night or Friday, possibly with a strong squall line. Ahead of and following the frontal passage, conditions warranting a wind advisory will be likely. This initial push of cooler air will likely yield to milder conditions after a few days. An even stronger push of cold air could occur during the second week of November. After mid-month, a prolonged period of above and occasionally much above normal temperatures could develop. Uncertainty about the second half of November has increased in recent days. Nevertheless, the base case remains a warmer than normal November. Meanwhile, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) remains on track for its second warmest October on record (estimated mean temperature near 28.3° vs. the normal mean of 17.2°) and the warmest September-October period on record with an estimated mean temperature near 34.5° (existing record: 32.3°, 2016). On account of Arctic amplification, a warmer than normal November is very likely. Sensitivity analysis suggests a greater than 80% likelihood of a warmer than normal November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.43°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was -11.09 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.864. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On October 28, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.822 (RMM). The October 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.900. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 59.9°. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is currently near 100%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 With persistent drizzle and light rain, New York City has picked up 0.04" precipitation today. That brings the year-to-date total to 43.36". As a result, 2019 has moved past 1992, when 43.35" precipitation was recorded, to become the 83rd wettest year on record. Records go back to 1869. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 The 18z NAM and GFS were wetter for Thursday/Friday then previous runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Drizzled my way to 0.24" today...60/53 temp split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, doncat said: Drizzled my way to 0.24" today...60/53 temp split. drizzle fest here too from about 10am on....never let up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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