donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wow what are they feeding these things to make them so big? I don’t know all of the techniques involved. It is a specific breed of pumpkin and the seeds are exchanged among a small number of growers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wow what are they feeding these things to make them so big? The banter thread. As always. ...... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 A warmer than normal October is poised to end on a warmer than normal note. Before then, a moderate to significant rainstorm could affect the region Saturday night and Sunday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rain is possible. A few areas could pick up around 2.00" rain. The following are year-to-date rainfall totals for select sites: Allentown: 51.88" (14th wettest year on record); Baltimore: 30.86"; Boston: 39.25"; Harrisburg: 37.53"; Islip: 37.05"; New York City: 41.93"; Newark: 48.28" (24th wettest year on record); Philadelphia: 39.70"; Poughkeepsie: 31.45"; Providence: 39.36"; Scranton: 42.62" (22nd wettest year on record); and, Washington, DC: 34.70". Cooler air will move into the region to start November. Afterward, the cool conditions will likely persist through the first week of November before slowly yielding to milder than normal temperatures during the second week of November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was -10.96 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.792. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Despite what might be a somewhat cooler than normal start to November, a warmer than normal outcome for the month as a whole remains likely. On October 25, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.841 (RMM). The October 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.177. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 59.5°. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is greater than 99%. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Perfect night for a fire in the fire pit. Gotta get em in when you can. In a few weeks it’s all over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 The last 5 days of October are still averaging near 60degs., or about 8degs. AN. Month to date is +2.2[59.8]. October should end near +3.0[59.9]. The first 3 days of November are averaging 53degs., or about 2degs. AN. 59.9* here at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 The warm and wet SE Ridge pattern rolls on. Many stations in Florida are experiencing their warmest October on record. We weren’t alone this month with the latest 95 degree heat on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Rainy in midtown with a temperature of 58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Maybe some sun this afternoon into evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 11 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Maybe some sun this afternoon into evening? Probably for NJ and the city at least. Should jump up into the 70s where that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 14 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Maybe some sun this afternoon into evening? back edge of the precip already past State College PA-definitely moving fast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: back edge of the precip already past State College PA-definitely moving fast... The HRRR has sun and 70+ in NJ by around 3 pm. Clearing a few hours later further to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: The HRRR has sun and 70+ in NJ by 4 pm. A few hours later further to the east. might be a nice sunset for eastern folks with the sun hitting the clouds off to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: might be a nice sunset for eastern folks with the sun hitting the clouds off to the east Yeah, the back edge of the cloud deck may be crossing eastern sections around sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 51 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the back edge of the cloud deck may be crossing eastern sections around sunset. I'm issuing a rainbow alert for this afternoon... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Partial Clearing into C-PA now looks to get here by 3. Rain ends between 1 and 2. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Over .75" now. Heavy rain continues. Should crack 1" by the time it wraps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 The heaviest downpours should come near the back edge early this afternoon. Thunderstorms developing now to our SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Satellite 60 and moderate rain in Central Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Up to 1 inch at my station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Heavy thunderstorms on Long Island with the back edge coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Up to 1.36" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Tropical storm like out there. Blinding windswept rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 the back edge is quickly moving in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 What criteria must be met for them to issue flash flood warnings on our phones? The roads near where I live are flooded and driving conditions are dangerous. There have been times in the past where we didn’t get much rain and still had warnings issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: the back edge is quickly moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 1.66” and counting with rates north of 2” per hour. Flash flood conditions in some areas, parked in a shopping center and came back 20 minutes later to find that the water was ankle deep, my shoes and pants are soaked as a result. Also, a perfect time for the RainX to wear off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 55 minutes ago, bluewave said: Heavy thunderstorms on Long Island with the back edge coming through. You sure those are thunderstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 incredible 2 hour rain rates here-back edge approaching but guessing we had 2 inchee for the event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 1.53 in the Davis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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