NYCweatherNOW Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 good ol drencher coming late tonight and tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Dude seriously ? what do you see to change it at least in the short term? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 60 degree Octobers are becoming almost as common at LGA as 70 degree Septembers. Even EWR is at 60 this month with NYC not far behind. LGA....+2.1....61.2 EWR....+2.6...60.3 NYC....+2.1...59.9 Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2019 61.2 6 2018 59.8 0 2017 65.5 0 2016 61.2 0 2015 58.4 0 2014 60.3 0 2013 60.9 0 2012 60.0 0 2011 58.3 0 2010 60.2 0 Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2019 72.1 0 2018 72.8 0 2017 71.5 0 2016 73.8 0 2015 74.1 0 2014 70.4 0 2013 68.1 0 2012 70.7 0 2011 70.7 0 2010 72.5 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: That could be the FV3 cold/snow biases that led to its delayed implementation as the new GFS. The fixes were not tested during the fall or winter before the implementation took place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: That could be the FV3 cold/snow biases that led to its delayed implementation as the new GFS. The fixes were not tested during the fall or winter before the implementation took place. We saw the same cold bias with the snow and cold forecast for this week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 12 hours ago, psv88 said: Last October first freeze was 10/19, and we had 2 more freezes before the end of the month. This year low so far is 37 and no 30s in sight. Both last year and this year my first freeze was 10/19 with the average date of 10/25 IMBY. Still waiting on the first hard freeze here but that average date is sometime in the first week of November all based on my records here going back to 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: We saw the same cold bias with the snow and cold forecast for this week. Yes, we did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 Just now, donsutherland1 said: Yes, we did. It might be a good idea for the NCEP to discontinue these GFS OP runs beyond 240 hrs. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: what do you see to change it at least in the short term? Change what? Snoski’s post last week about not making long term predictions? Id say we all predicted that change perfectly. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: what do you see to change it at least in the short term? He keeps saying it's going to be warmer with no reasoning. Its only October. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 47 minutes ago, Snow88 said: He keeps saying it's going to be warmer with no reasoning. Its only October. Yet ppl are posting the ridiculous GFS snowy runs like they're gospel. GFS is complete garbage and is getting stomped by the Euro. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yet ppl are posting the ridiculous GFS snowy runs like they're gospel. GFS is complete garbage and is getting stomped by the Euro. One needs to be cautious with the extended range GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 Regards to the MJO it is forecast to enter the cod according to most guidance or a very weak 4 5 or 6 phase. Is it safe to say that the mjo is not a driver for the next few weeks? Also when it enters a particular phase is there a lag time to our sensible weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: One needs to be cautious with the extended range GFS. I wouldn't trust any guidance showing sustained below-normal temperatures. Even the Euro had this weekend below normal in the 50s several days ago. I would also add that the pattern we are currently in would be a colder one come December January February as the wavelengths lengthen. It's a good sign to see higher Heights in the high-latitude regions hopefully this can stay as winter approaches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 54 minutes ago, binbisso said: Regards to the MJO it is forecast to enter the cod according to most guidance or a very weak 4 5 or 6 phase. Is it safe to say that the mjo is not a driver for the next few weeks? Also when it enters a particular phase is there a lag time to our sensible weather? The record +IOD may be disrupting or interfering with the MJO. So other factors may play a greater role in our sensible weather. Such as the location of the perma-North Pacific ridge. The NP ridge has been helping to pump the SE Ridge in October. We’ll have to see how this evolves going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 I really hope it doesnt snow in November. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwhiteout Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes, we did. I'm just glad to see the the precip coming back around to maybe above average. Then maybe we can have some fun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I really hope it doesnt snow in November. November snow is fine! October snow is horrible cause the trees still have leafs. Could be very dangerous and end up being a warm winter. I think November we get some snow and there’s nothing wrong with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 Euro has a very wet and mild Sunday. Rainfall totals in the 1 to 2 inch range with highs near 70. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Euro has a very wet and mild Sunday. Rainfall totals in the 1 to 2 inch range with highs near 70. I honestly doubt we get into the 70’s with rain unless the brunt of the storm come in late tonight and very early morning than we get a warm day in the afternoon. I still think tomorrow all day is a wash out with low to mid 60’s for Central Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I honestly doubt we get into the 70’s with rain unless the brunt of the storm come in late tonight and very early morning than we get a warm day in the afternoon. I still think tomorrow all day is a wash out with low to mid 60’s for Central Park Rain looks to move out by mid afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 22 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I honestly doubt we get into the 70’s with rain unless the brunt of the storm come in late tonight and very early morning than we get a warm day in the afternoon. I still think tomorrow all day is a wash out with low to mid 60’s for Central Park We get warm sectored later in the day after the rain ends. Deep SW flow and 850 mb temps around +15C. Best chance of 70 may be the usual warm spots in NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 we'll probably see some more 70+ days before it gets colder...November's average max is around 70... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 12 minutes ago, uncle W said: we'll probably see some more 70+ days before it gets colder...November's average max is around 70... Posters will be happy as long as we don’t get one in late December like 2013 and 2015. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference Minimum 02-18 (2011) 10-22 (2012) 223 Mean 03-15 11-17 246 Maximum 04-13 (2015) 12-24 (2015) 282 2019 03-15 (2019) 77 - - - 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 11-02 (2018) 73 253 2017 02-24 (2017) 74 11-03 (2017) 76 251 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 11-03 (2016) 74 238 2015 04-13 (2015) 71 12-24 (2015) 71 254 2014 04-11 (2014) 77 11-24 (2014) 74 226 2013 04-08 (2013) 72 12-22 (2013) 71 257 2012 03-08 (2012) 72 10-22 (2012) 71 227 2011 02-18 (2011) 71 11-28 (2011) 72 282 2010 03-18 (2010) 71 10-28 (2010) 76 223 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I honestly doubt we get into the 70’s with rain unless the brunt of the storm come in late tonight and very early morning than we get a warm day in the afternoon. I still think tomorrow all day is a wash out with low to mid 60’s for Central Park i bet you your life savings someone in the metro hits 70 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Posters will be happy as long as we don’t get one in late December like 2013 and 2015. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference Minimum 02-18 (2011) 10-22 (2012) 223 Mean 03-15 11-17 246 Maximum 04-13 (2015) 12-24 (2015) 282 2019 03-15 (2019) 77 - - - 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 11-02 (2018) 73 253 2017 02-24 (2017) 74 11-03 (2017) 76 251 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 11-03 (2016) 74 238 2015 04-13 (2015) 71 12-24 (2015) 71 254 2014 04-11 (2014) 77 11-24 (2014) 74 226 2013 04-08 (2013) 72 12-22 (2013) 71 257 2012 03-08 (2012) 72 10-22 (2012) 71 227 2011 02-18 (2011) 71 11-28 (2011) 72 282 2010 03-18 (2010) 71 10-28 (2010) 76 223 70 isn't as rare as some make it out to be, we've hit 70 a few times in January too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 30 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i bet you your life savings someone in the metro hits 70 I dont know why some care if it hits 70 when there's no chance it's going to snow lol. I remember we came close to 70 during the big deluge a week or two after the Jan 1996 blizzard. Severe tstorm warnings too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 Even as high and mid-level clouds moved in to dim the afternoon sunshine, today was yet another balmy October day at the New York Botanical Garden. The high temperature reached 63°. The last photo shows the two largest giant pumpkins on display. The one in the foreground weighs 2,116 pounds. The one in the background weighs 2,016 pounds. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 Wow what are they feeding these things to make them so big? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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