October 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

70 here.   Where's all the cold air?  LOL

It's only October 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's only October 

for all the talk of a pattern change, I have yet to see much beyond transient cooler temps.  Best cold remains out west and jet is screaming.   We have turned wetter yes....

[nycwinter]

the normal high for the last day of october in  nyc  is 59 degrees enough with the cold air nonsense..

[Brian5671]

Just now, nycwinter said:

the normal high for the last day of october in  nyc  is 59 degrees enough with the cold air nonsense..

just you run of the mill +10 day today....we can't even get to average unless there's rain

[uofmiami]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

the normal high for the last day of october in  nyc  is 59 degrees enough with the cold air nonsense..

GFSX MOS has a high of 52 for 10/31 for NYC, but enough with the cold air nonsense.

[Dan76]

42 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's only October 

soon to be dec

[NYCweatherNOW]

My winter forecast is up!

[JustinRP37]

15 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

My winter forecast is up!

Ballsy call given how much is starting to go against this. Then again everyone and their brother always predicts snowy and cold around here (which has been true more times than not since 2010 for snow but not for temps). However, rather than use the over used snowy terminology, let's talk days with snow cover of 1 inch or more. Suddenly when you look at the 2010s, it isn't so pretty anymore. Sure we have had many seasons with above normal snowfall, but it doesn't tend to stick around. An above normal season for snowfall means nothing to me and the ecological world if you get one blockbuster storm of 30+ inches and it melts within 5 days. We have had more years with below average snow cover while still being at or above normal with snowfall. It is one thing I have been looking at for tick-borne diseases. My call for this winter based on what I am seeing right now is above normal temps DJF, I'm thinking +2.5 (mainly December and early January) and normal to just above normal snowfall mainly from a few events (later in the season). I believe days with 1 inch or more at Central Park and other snow depth recording stations will be below average for the season. 

[CIK62]

EURO CONTROL  looking super cold starting Nov. 12 and continuing to end of November.     Prior to the 12th.,  it is a swing your partner affair,  with girls and boys always changing places.

A Thanksgiving Day snowstorm looks  doable, as ridging is peaking over Montana and a -270m trough is over us.

Meanwhile back at ranch, the remainder of October is averaging 58degs.

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

Similar to this time last year, the jet stream is on steroids. 158KT at 250mb at GGW (Glasgow, MT) this morning is an all-time record there (going back to 1948). Riverton, WY came in 1KT shy of their highest observed 250mb wind speed at 12Z.

Meanwhile, tomorrow's jet stream amplification in the Northeast is also likely to set at least monthly records as the Atlantic ridge flexes. GFS below:

The jet streak that digs the next big trough out West will be very impressive also. It maxes out around 6 SD in Alaska.
 

 

[CIK62]

F L A S H      F L A S H     F L A S H     F L A S H      FLASH      FLASH

If not mentioned elsewhere,   KWO-35   162.55Mhz.   is back on the air.      The hiatus was a typical governmental one of 23 months.

Transmitter Details   Just got this- 6:52pm from site-, so maybe they are only testing.

Call Sign	Power	Frequency	Status
KWO35	1000 W	162.550 MHz	OUT OF SERVICE

[donsutherland1]

During the next 3-6 days, temperatures will likely average warmer than normal. At the same time, a moderate to significant rainstorm could affect the region Saturday night and Sunday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rain is possible.

A cooler air mass should push into the region near the end of month. Some of the recent guidance has delayed the timing of the cooler air's arrival until the start of November. It is plausible that this year could become the fifth year since 2010 when October's lowest temperature was 40° or above in Central Park. 2018 saw three days with low temperatures below 40° in October, with a monthly minimum temperature of 38° on October 26.

Afterward, the cool conditions will likely persist through the first week of November before slowly yielding to milder than normal temperatures during the second week of November. The second half of November could be warmer than normal according to both the latest EPS weeklies and CFSv2.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The SOI was -9.74 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.161.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Despite what might be a somewhat cooler than normal start to November, a warmer than normal outcome for the month as a whole remains likely.

On October 23, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.654 (RMM). The October 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.815.

In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 59.0°.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 94%.

[CIK62]

From above post:

Afterward, the cool conditions will likely persist through the first week of November before slowly yielding to milder than normal temperatures during the second week of November. The second half of November could be warmer than normal according to both the latest EPS weeklies and CFSv2.

The EURO CONTROL starts November near Normal or AN,   then goes berserk with a continuous -10 to -15 degree F departure for remainder of month around us.     Why such a difference?

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

for all the talk of a pattern change, I have yet to see much beyond transient cooler temps.  Best cold remains out west and jet is screaming.   We have turned wetter yes....

GFS completely got rid of any cool down. Looks AN, mostly 60s.

[donsutherland1]

38 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

From above post:

Afterward, the cool conditions will likely persist through the first week of November before slowly yielding to milder than normal temperatures during the second week of November. The second half of November could be warmer than normal according to both the latest EPS weeklies and CFSv2.

The EURO CONTROL starts November near Normal or AN,   then goes berserk with a continuous -10 to -15 degree F departure for remainder of month around us.     Why such a difference?

I'm not sure why there is a big difference, but more often than not the ensemble means verify a little better than any single member in the extended range. It will certainly be interesting to see how things evolve a few weeks down the road.

[uofmiami]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

F L A S H      F L A S H     F L A S H     F L A S H      FLASH      FLASH

If not mentioned elsewhere,   KWO-35   162.55Mhz.   is back on the air.      The hiatus was a typical governmental one of 23 months.

Transmitter Details   Just got this- 6:52pm from site-, so maybe they are only testing.

Call Sign	Power	Frequency	Status
KWO35	1000 W	162.550 MHz	OUT OF SERVICE

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201910231552-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1152 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2019

...THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO NYC TRANSMITTER KWO-35 WILL BE ON THE 
AIR FOR A FEW WEEKS TO TEST TRANSMISSION...

NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO-35, OPERATING ON A FREQUENCY OF
162.550 MHZ BASED OUT OF NEW YORK CITY, WILL BE ON THE AIR 
FOR A FEW WEEKS TO TEST TRANSMISSION FROM A NEW LOCATION. 

THE TRANSMITTER WILL BE OPERATING AT REDUCED POWER FOR THIS TEST 
SO AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE BROADCASTS WILL BE OPERATING IN A 
LIMITED CAPACITY. ONCE THESE TESTS ARE CONCLUDED AND DEEMED 
SUCCESSFUL, WE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARDS A FULL OPERATION AND 
PERMANENT INSTALLATION. FURTHER INFORMATION ON AN ESTIMATED TIME 
OF RETURN TO SERVICE WILL BE PROVIDED ONCE THE TESTS HAVE BEEN 
CONCLUDED THROUGH PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

My winter forecast is up!

I would take that and flip the trough to the west coast. I don’t think this winter is a complete dud however. There should be at least one period of blocking that yields a decent period of cold and KU potential. Other then that it’s +2-4 and cutter rain, transient cold and repeat. I’mp basing this off the incredible persistence of the screaming  pac jet.  

[Rtd208]

I will tell you what, the days might be warm with temps ranging from the low to upper 60's but the nights have been cooling off nicely to the low to mid 40's here.

Current temp 44

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of October going out in style at an average of 58degs., or about 6degs. AN.    No BN days apparently, afterall.

Month to date is  +2.0[60.0].      October should end at  +2.7[59.6].

54.3* here at 6am.    61.2* by Noon.

 

[MJO812]

Rain for Halloween?

[purduewx80]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

The jet streak that digs the next big trough out West will be very impressive also. It maxes out around 6 SD in Alaska. 

nice! It’s been fun to learn how west pac typhoon recurvature doesn’t always = deep eastern trough 5-7 days later this season. 

[purduewx80]

16 hours ago, uofmiami said:

GFSX MOS has a high of 52 for 10/31 for NYC, but enough with the cold air nonsense.

That number is biased towards climo that far out, but more importantly, the FV3 has been horrendous w the extended this fall. Should see those numbers creep up closer to the 60s-70s the Euro has been showing ~10/30-11/1. Still can’t rule out a backdoor front cooling things down but I suspect the SE ridge means business. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

nice! It’s been fun to learn how west pac typhoon recurvature doesn’t always = deep eastern trough 5-7 days later this season. 

Yeah, it really depends on how the typhoon recurve and ET interacts with the pattern. We saw an opposite response with the Nuri recurve in November 2014. That eventually set new low pressure records in the Bering.  NYC will get a mild response this time around. Rather than the -18 departure and 22 degree low in November 2014.
 

 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Rain for Halloween?

doesn't look like a washout but maybe a bit unsettled.

[NYCweatherNOW]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

doesn't look like a washout but maybe a bit unsettled.

I think the cold and finally some snow occurs around November 20th and on. December starts average and we have a white Christmas and very cold New Years. January is normal in the beginning with mostly small snow events until you hit mid February we can get a really big snowstorm. Early February is cutter city. Average temps throughout winter. March is cold and some snow early and than spring comes in early this year.

[bluewave]

This persistent -PNA pattern resulted in a big shift west for the Pacific SST warm blob. It moved from near California to the Aleutians since Labor Day. This reflects a pattern with only transient cool downs before the SE Ridge reloads.

 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I think the cold and finally some snow occurs around November 20th and on. December starts average and we have a white Christmas and very cold New Years. January is normal in the beginning with mostly small snow events until you hit mid February we can get a really big snowstorm. Early February is cutter city. Average temps throughout winter. March is cold and some snow early and than spring comes in early this year.

Fantasy....

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

That number is biased towards climo that far out, but more importantly, the FV3 has been horrendous w the extended this fall. Should see those numbers creep up closer to the 60s-70s the Euro has been showing ~10/30-11/1. Still can’t rule out a backdoor front cooling things down but I suspect the SE ridge means business. 

Oh I know the GFS is bad on the extended I was just showing there was guidance at the time showing 52. Hence the talk of cold happening. It’s already up to 57 now on 00Z run and as you said it’ll be in the 60s in no time.  This SE ridge isn’t going anywhere, Miami is having its hottest October on record.

[uofmiami]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This persistent -PNA pattern resulted in a big shift west for the Pacific SST warm blob. It moved from near California to the Aleutians and weakened a bit since Labor Day. This reflects a pattern with only transient cool downs before the SE Ridge reloads.

 

Just like summer. We’d see the heat and it would get here for a little and then we’d get a transient shot of relief before the high DPs came back and the heat tried to get up to us.  Then we’d repeat it all over again. 

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Just like summer. We’d see the heat and it would get here for a little and then we’d get a transient shot of relief before the high DPs came back and the heat tried to get up to us.  Then we’d repeat it all over again. 

Remarkably stable pattern when you average out the whole year so far. The 2010’s stuck weather patterns give new meaning to persistence forecasting. The big challenge this decade has been timing the shifts from one stuck regime to the next.