October 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[dmillz25]

10 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

DR is whack, you gotta go to nicer places like Turks and Caicos, Croatia or south Albania. In Dominican Republic you can’t even leave the resort cause you gotta worry about getting shot. DR used to be decent but now it’s garbage! Turks and Caicos is hands down the nicest Caribbean spot. Croatia and especially south Albania has the nicest beaches and it’s safe and you’re paying pennies on the dollar!

Woah guy my family is from there and that is not true at all. I had an amazing time there with no issues

[donsutherland1]

43 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

DR is whack, you gotta go to nicer places like Turks and Caicos, Croatia or south Albania. In Dominican Republic you can’t even leave the resort cause you gotta worry about getting shot. DR used to be decent but now it’s garbage! Turks and Caicos is hands down the nicest Caribbean spot. Croatia and especially south Albania has the nicest beaches and it’s safe and you’re paying pennies on the dollar!

I have a co-worker who traveled to the Dominican Republic. She had a great experience and some of the places she visited were incredibly scenic. IMO, the recent bad publicity should not skew perceptions of the DR as a travel destination.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

At the very least this looks to be our 2nd wettest October of the decade. 

big turnaround from September

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

big turnaround from September

We are back to the default wet pattern after the 2nd driest month of the 2010’s.

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
Mean	3.60	3.92	4.46	3.89	4.82	4.35	4.67	5.11	3.68	3.94	3.48	4.47	49.59
Max	5.23 2015	6.69 2010	10.69 2010	7.85 2014	8.00 2013	10.10 2013	7.45 2018	18.95 2011	9.39 2011	6.09 2011	7.62 2018	6.51 2018	72.81 2011
Min	2.08 2010	1.37 2012	0.96 2012	1.31 2013	1.86 2015	2.20 2010	2.60 2010	1.97 2016	0.95 2019	0.36 2013	1.58 2017	2.21 2017	38.5
2010	2.08	6.69	10.69	2.99	3.01	2.20	2.60	4.14	3.67	4.91	2.15	4.24	49.37
2011	4.93	3.47	6.19	5.35	5.11	3.25	3.03	18.95	9.39	6.09	3.05	4.00	72.81
2012	3.23	1.37	0.96	3.56	5.38	2.97	4.21	2.91	4.39	2.92	1.81	4.80	38.51
2013	2.76	4.25	2.90	1.31	8.00	10.10	2.84	2.85	2.95	0.36	3.15	4.85	46.32
2014	2.79	5.48	3.67	7.85	4.37	4.26	5.59	2.25	1.21	5.77	4.51	6.04	53.79
2015	5.23	2.04	4.72	2.08	1.86	4.79	3.98	2.35	3.28	3.91	2.01	4.72	40.97
2016	4.41	4.40	1.17	1.61	3.75	2.60	7.02	1.97	2.79	4.15	5.41	2.89	42.17
2017	4.83	2.48	5.25	3.84	6.38	4.76	4.19	3.34	2.00	4.18	1.58	2.21	45.04
2018	2.18	5.83	5.17	5.78	3.53	3.11	7.45	8.59	6.19	3.59	7.62	6.51	65.55
2019	3.58	3.14	3.87	4.55	6.82	5.46	5.77	3.70	0.95	3.51	M	M	41.35

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

We are back to the default wet pattern after the 2nd driest month of the 2010’s.

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
Mean	3.60	3.92	4.46	3.89	4.82	4.35	4.67	5.11	3.68	3.94	3.48	4.47	49.59
Max	5.23 2015	6.69 2010	10.69 2010	7.85 2014	8.00 2013	10.10 2013	7.45 2018	18.95 2011	9.39 2011	6.09 2011	7.62 2018	6.51 2018	72.81 2011
Min	2.08 2010	1.37 2012	0.96 2012	1.31 2013	1.86 2015	2.20 2010	2.60 2010	1.97 2016	0.95 2019	0.36 2013	1.58 2017	2.21 2017	38.5
2010	2.08	6.69	10.69	2.99	3.01	2.20	2.60	4.14	3.67	4.91	2.15	4.24	49.37
2011	4.93	3.47	6.19	5.35	5.11	3.25	3.03	18.95	9.39	6.09	3.05	4.00	72.81
2012	3.23	1.37	0.96	3.56	5.38	2.97	4.21	2.91	4.39	2.92	1.81	4.80	38.51
2013	2.76	4.25	2.90	1.31	8.00	10.10	2.84	2.85	2.95	0.36	3.15	4.85	46.32
2014	2.79	5.48	3.67	7.85	4.37	4.26	5.59	2.25	1.21	5.77	4.51	6.04	53.79
2015	5.23	2.04	4.72	2.08	1.86	4.79	3.98	2.35	3.28	3.91	2.01	4.72	40.97
2016	4.41	4.40	1.17	1.61	3.75	2.60	7.02	1.97	2.79	4.15	5.41	2.89	42.17
2017	4.83	2.48	5.25	3.84	6.38	4.76	4.19	3.34	2.00	4.18	1.58	2.21	45.04
2018	2.18	5.83	5.17	5.78	3.53	3.11	7.45	8.59	6.19	3.59	7.62	6.51	65.55
2019	3.58	3.14	3.87	4.55	6.82	5.46	5.77	3.70	0.95	3.51	M	M	41.35

 

Wow Sept 2019 was only the second under 1" rainfall month of the 2010s?  Driest was Oct 2013.  Woops, I missed March 2012!  Weird to see an under 1" rainfall month in springtime!

 

[purduewx80]

Reference Sunday's "surprise" rain and "NAM win" - once it locked onto the development of the gulf low (to-be-Nestor), the EPS mean was consistently farther north with its trek into the Northeast. It more or less was a good forecast tool from last Wednesday (108 hours out).

The NAM was wildly inconsistent in its precip amounts.  It was often too far north with the 1"+ rain predictions and on many runs suggested winds would gust 30-40MPH on most of Long Island. 

I guess the point of all this is, taking an ensemble approach to forecasting is wise when there's poor model agreement. Goes without saying, but this will become more and more important as we head into the cold season.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow Sept 2019 was only the second under 1" rainfall month of the 2010s?  Driest was Oct 2013.

Oct 2013 .36 and Mar 2012  .96 were the other 2 months for NYC.

 

[doncat]

Haven't had a sub  2" rainfall month in almost 2 years here..Nov 2017.

[donsutherland1]

22 hours ago, CIK62 said:

DT scores some recent CFS Winter Outlooks during the first minutes of his latest video.     He too feels (paranoid like me?)the outputs never show BN because the government is promoting Global Warming and hopes you never actually do any verification------that you just see the Outlooks-----but our members know better!     Of course he covers the next week and some 'beyonds'  via Siberian Snow Cover (current and about to happen) and projected TeleConnections.

It should be noted that the C3S used by the major European forecasting agencies for seasonal forecasts shows warm anomalies throughout almost all of the Northern Hemisphere, including North America. The CFSv2 isn't alone with such a forecast right now. Of course, this is October, so things can still change.

 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

big turnaround from September

Yeah though central park is lagging

[CIK62]

Well, I think it is the mechanics of the 30-Year Normal being kept out of date purposely, which forces almost any analog long range output to indicate AN.     We are chasing a moving target.   The current 30 Year Normal will be around for another two years.     It has a mid point of 1996,  which will be 25 years ago when changed.     We can not alter  the T's being predicted---just where they sit against the normal, a real normal.      The normal should be updated annually for the most recent 30 years.

Using the last four months of the year for the last 11 years, and making this Nov/Dec AN, it looks like the score is  32AN  12BN.      In 2014-15 NYC had 20 straight AN months    Tampa Fl. seems to be on an 18 month AN streak right now.        We need a normals that gets us closer to 50%/50%.        The average age of the warmest 12 months ever (one for each month of the year) is 30 years, the 12 coldest is 120 years, in NYC.

Personally I feel adding about 1 degree F to each monthly normal(variable by the month) would get us to a split of 180/180 over the 30 year span.     In other words, any month that is >+1 now, really is above the normal long term residents around here used to experience.

[donsutherland1]

Following a frontal passage with some showers and periods of rain overnight, sunshine will return tomorrow. During the next 5-8 days, temperatures will likely average warmer than normal.

October could end with a cool shot. The cool conditions will then likely persist through the first week of November as the Arctic Oscillation goes negative for at least a time. Nevertheless, the cool shot should prove transient.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The SOI was +2.90 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.148.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Despite what might be a somewhat cooler than normal start to November, a warmer than normal outcome for the month as a whole remains likely.

On October 21, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.885 (RMM). The October 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.914.

In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 59.0°.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 84%.

Finally, the C3S (Europe's seasonal forecasting ensemble system) hints that the predominant state of the NAO and possibly AO could be positive during the upcoming winter. That would tend to translate into warmer anomalies in eastern North America, including the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. However, there remains time for conditions to change and the state of blocking typically cannot be forecast reliably at the kind of long timescales involved in the current C3S forecast.

[donsutherland1]

20 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Well, I think it is the mechanics of the 30-Year Normal being kept out of date purposely, which forces almost any analog long range output to indicate AN.     We are chasing a moving target.   The current 30 Year Normal will be around for another two years.     It has a mid point of 1996,  which will be 25 years ago when changed.     We can not alter  the T's being predicted---just where they sit against the normal, a real normal.      The normal should be updated annually for the most recent 30 years.

Using the last four months of the year for the last 11 years, and making this Nov/Dec AN, it looks like the score is  32AN  12BN.      In 2014-15 NYC had 20 straight AN months    Tampa Fl. seems to be on an 18 month AN streak right now.        We need a normals that gets us closer to 50%/50%.        The average age of the warmest 12 months ever (one for each month of the year) is 30 years, the 12 coldest is 120 years, in NYC.

Personally I feel adding about 1 degree F to each monthly normal(variable by the month) would get us to a split of 180/180 over the 30 year span.     In other words, any month that is >+1 now, really is above the normal long term residents around here used to experience.

The 30-year means are updated each decade. There are no ulterior motives involved with this.

Clearly, the climate has warmed since the 1981-2010 base period. In the high latitudes, the warming has been even more pronounced. For example, in Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), the 1981-2010 base mean for October is 17.2°. The most recent 30-year period (1989-2018) has a mean temperature of 20.5°. After this October, which will very likely be the second or third warmest October on record, that figure could be 20.9°.

So, should the reference point be increased more frequently, maybe every 5 years? The drawback with a frequently changing reference point is that it tends to make such an exercise relatively futile. In other words, there is no relatively stable "normal" value for temperatures.

Perhaps things will get there on a "business as usual" path. Things may already be there in the Arctic due to related feedbacks that are amplifying the warming.

[doncat]

Up to 0.56" and still raining...Now  over 50" for the year.

[Cfa]

0.25” here so far.....3.96” for Oct.....39.64” for the year.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.53" of rain for the day.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 59degs., or about 6degs. AN.     Just the 30th. is BN.   It will be joined by the 31st. tomorrow.

Month to date is  +1.8[60.1].         Should be near +2.9[59.8] by the 31st.   

GFS/GEFS start differing on the 2mT's beginning Nov. 04.

59.5* here at 6am.      63.6* by 2pm.       65.1* by 3pm.       66+* high about 3:30pm.

***I agree that annual updates to the 30 Year Normal defeats its purpose somewhat, but the atmosphere has done a good job there already!    Perhaps two 30YNs are in order here---- the original method  IN MEMORIAM only.  Lol.

[bluewave]

October is on track track for 10 out of 10 above normal temperature departure months for the 2010s.

Oct.......EWR...NYC...LGA

2019...+2.5...+1.8...+1.7...so far

2018...+0.8...+0.8...+1.7

2017...+7.2...+7.2...+7.4

2016...+2.3...+1.9....+3.1

2015...+0.6...+1.1....+0.3

2014...+2.7...+2.7....+2.2

2013...+3.0....+3.3...+2.8

2012...+2.2....+1.1....+1.9

2011...+1.5...+0.2.....+0.2

2010...+1.7...+1.2....+2.1

[weathermedic]

Picked up 0.56 of rain at my station.

[SnoSki14]

15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Finally, the C3S (Europe's seasonal forecasting ensemble system) hints that the predominant state of the NAO and possibly AO could be positive during the upcoming winter. That would tend to translate into warmer anomalies in eastern North America, including the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. However, there remains time for conditions to change and the state of blocking typically cannot be forecast reliably at the kind of long timescales involved in the current C3S forecast.

If we lose the blocking then we're probably talking about a 11/12 type winter given the state of the MJO and Pacific pattern.

Early/late season blocking was the only thing that stopped last season from being a complete disaster.

[Stormlover74]

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If we lose the blocking then we're probably talking about a 11/12 type winter given the state of the MJO and Pacific pattern.

Early/late season blocking was the only thing that stopped last season from being a complete disaster.

Fine with me. Better than expecting 50" and getting 18

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If we lose the blocking then we're probably talking about a 11/12 type winter given the state of the MJO and Pacific pattern.

Early/late season blocking was the only thing that stopped last season from being a complete disaster.

Exactly my thoughts. Overall I think it’s a pac dominated -PNA winter. The wild card is a prolonged period of blocking that could save the winter. 

[donsutherland1]

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If we lose the blocking then we're probably talking about a 11/12 type winter given the state of the MJO and Pacific pattern.

Early/late season blocking was the only thing that stopped last season from being a complete disaster.

You might be thinking of another winter. 2011-12 was much above normal in every month Monthly anomalies are below:

December: +5.8°; January: +4.7°; February +5.6°; March: +8.4° (NYC data, but similar anomalies throughout the region).

[495weatherguy]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

You might be thinking of another winter. 2011-12 was much above normal in every month Monthly anomalies are below:

December: +5.8°; January: +4.7°; February +5.6°; March: +8.4° (NYC data, but similar anomalies throughout the region).

Bring on another winter like ‘11/12 then

[Brian5671]

12z Euro is a drencher for Sunday-2 inches plus city on north....Saturday is dry

[purduewx80]

54 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

12z Euro is a drencher for Sunday-2 inches plus city on north....Saturday is dry

Models have finally come into better agreement with this system today. It'll have both a Gulf and Caribbean moisture connection, so although it's progressive, those rainfall amounts seem reasonable. 

[donsutherland1]

During the next 4-7 days, temperatures will likely average warmer than normal. At the same time, a moderate to significant rainstorm could affect the region Saturday night and Sunday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rain is possible.

A cooler air mass should push into the region near the end of month. Afterward, the cool conditions will likely persist through the first week of November before slowly yielding to milder than normal temperatures during the second week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The SOI was -2.90 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.247.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Despite what might be a somewhat cooler than normal start to November, a warmer than normal outcome for the month as a whole remains likely.

On October 22, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.815 (RMM). The October 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.885.

In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 59.0°.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 93%.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 57degs., or about 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.9[60.0].         October should end near  +2.4[59.3].

53.6* here at 6am.    60.0* by 12;30PM.       63.1* by 3pm.

[uncle W]

42 degrees now...50 in Central park...heat island in full effect...

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, uncle W said:

42 degrees now...50 in Central park...heat island in full effect...

I wonder what the temp is in midtown or a place like Times Square?