gravitylover Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: we've done well last 20 yrs with snow and most of the winters (outside of 13-14 or 14-15) were AN.... 11-12 didn't count. What, 5" or so for the whole cold season but over a foot in October. Blah. Reality is that I probably wouldn't be totally disappointed with a winter like that, I'm having too much fun mountain biking right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 3 hours ago, psv88 said: The current US government is trying skew the data? Are you kidding? The leader of our country calls climate change a hoax FFS Thank you for saying this. It’s a shame how moronic this board has gotten now that everyone with a pulse has migrated to twitter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 The next 8 days are still averaging 57degs. or about 4degs.+ AN Month to date is +1.7[60.1]. Should be +2.4[59.3] by the 30th. 58.4* here at 6am. 63.5* by 1pm. EURO Control Member is 'Cold' for Weeks 4,5,6-----mixed Weeks 1,2,3. I make out November from this, as BN. As we go into Dec., it may be going back the other way. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 8 hours ago, Drz1111 said: Thank you for saying this. It’s a shame how moronic this board has gotten now that everyone with a pulse has migrated to twitter. Twitter is the worst thing that could have happened for weather. Hype and garbage are 75% of the posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 9 hours ago, gravitylover said: 11-12 didn't count. What, 5" or so for the whole cold season but over a foot in October. Blah. Reality is that I probably wouldn't be totally disappointed with a winter like that, I'm having too much fun mountain biking right now Ha. There are advantages to those types of winter-more outdoor activity, less in heating bills, nothing to shovel/snowblow. Once I gave up that year I actually enjoyed the winter especially March which was essentially like May or even June at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 14 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: It's an AN pattern but probably not a death knell regarding snow chances. In fact a pattern like last season with more blocking would probably turn out ok. The -EPO should also give us some good arctic shots too. The main reason we had near record low snowfall last DJF was the strong ridge north of Hawaii and fast Pacific jet. Even some Greenland blocking was no match for such an unfavorable Pacific. While 16-17 and 17-18 were also mild, the NP ridge extended far enough north into Alaska for cold storm tracks needed for snow. The start warm with the strong -NAO in March 2018 really helped us out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Ha. There are advantages to those types of winter-more outdoor activity, less in heating bills, nothing to shovel/snowblow. Once I gave up that year I actually enjoyed the winter especially March which was essentially like May or even June at times. Get out and enjoy the weather! Take advantage of this while you can. You never know how long this weather will last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Nam is cutting back on the rain now. Under half an inch for most 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 On 10/18/2019 at 5:29 PM, uncle W said: I'm thinking we could get a similar winter to 2005-06 and 2015-16 with one big storm either in February or March and some snow in December...as of today my top analogue is 1959-60...the last time I used it was for the 2005-06 winter...59-60 had some snow in December and a big storm in March...2005-06 had some snow in December and a big storm in February... We're thinking along the same lines. The snow in December will probably be mostly for inland areas and we'll get some form of backloaded winter in February and March. I say some form, because it could all be mostly from one storm. Probably more like 05-06 than 15-16, because 15-16 was a big el nino. Unfortunately for me, because the big el nino snowstorms like 82-83 and 15-16 favor the south shore of Long Island for the most snow. So it probably wont be a regionwide 20"+ snowstorm like what those seasons had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 On 10/18/2019 at 6:06 PM, bluewave said: My 3 favorite seasons for snowstorms this decade were 10-11, 15-16, and 17-18. I hope for a 40/40 season. If it's going to be a mild winter, might as well be mild with snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 15 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Whatever happened to the old fashioned winters when I was a kid? It would start to turn colder by mid November and more or less stay that way into March minus the week long thaw in January. Damn climate change. The last season for NYC with every month from November to March with below normal temperatures was 95-96. No surprise that that was our snowiest season on record. The January thaw was also accompanied by one of the worst winter flash flood events in the Northeast. NYC Nov....-4.1 Dec....-5.1 Jan.....-2.1 Feb.....-1.5 Mar.....-3.6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 On 10/18/2019 at 4:56 PM, bluewave said: NYC needs a cold winter to have a shot at a 50” or greater snowfall season. But had its two greatest snowstorms on record during the warm 05-06 and 15-16 winters. 40/40 is doable though like 15-16 but not having that big el nino is going to present a problem for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: Our last season with every month from November to March with below normal temperatures was 95-96. No surprise that that was our snowiest season on record. The January thaw was also accompanied by one of the worst winter flash flood events in the Northeast. NYC Nov....-4.1 Dec....-5.1 Jan.....-2.1 Feb.....-1.5 Mar.....-3.6 Didnt we have a severe weather event in January 1996 with temps in the upper 60s? I remember that as well as a big supermarket roof collapse in Massapequa a week after the big blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 On 10/18/2019 at 7:01 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: @LibertyBell @weathermedic @nycwinter i bought a small electric heater just for the next few days. Only because people are greedy and they won’t follow the law for a few hundred, thanks for the advice. Cold night coming up 52 right now probably going down to 44 edit: as I was talking crap the heat went on lol. Very happy right now just for my son I don’t care for me Did you shut off the space heater? I'm keeping one on in my bedroom until it gets really cold and then I turn on the heat in the whole house. I set the space heater to 80 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 40/40 is doable though like 15-16 but not having that big el nino is going to present a problem for us. It all depends on the storm tracks. We can have mild and snowy winter. But not a snowy winter with an unfavorable Pacific like last year. 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Didnt we have a severe weather event in January 1996 with temps in the upper 60s? I remember that as well as a big supermarket roof collapse in Massapequa a week after the big blizzard. That was the worst January flood-cutter on record for many parts of the Northeast. https://www.weather.gov/bgm/pastFloodJanuary1996 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 5 hours ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are still averaging 57degs. or about 4degs.+ AN Month to date is +1.7[60.1]. Should be +2.4[59.3] by the 30th. 58.4* here at 6am. EURO Control Member is 'Cold' for Weeks 4,5,6-----mixed Weeks 1,2,3. I make out November from this, as BN. As we go into Dec., it may be going back the other way. We'll see. Your month to date departure keeps dropping Just sayin’... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Didnt we have a severe weather event in January 1996 with temps in the upper 60s? I remember that as well as a big supermarket roof collapse in Massapequa a week after the big blizzard. It was Waldbaums. A week after the blizzard. There was so much snow we still has snow cover after the rain event. Friday event. 1/12/96 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Yeah, it was the 2 Fridays in mid-January 1996. The first was the the roof collapse at the Massapequa Waldbaums. The second was the historic Northeast flash flood event. https://www.upi.com/Archives/1996/01/12/Roof-collapses-at-NY-supermarket/2528821422800/ https://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hrl/surveys/flood96/FL96chp1.htm#INTRODUCTION ISP Jan 96. 1996-01-12 43 19 31.0 0.5 34 0 1.07 1.0 14 1996-01-13 38 31 34.5 4.1 30 0 0.01 0.0 10 1996-01-14 38 28 33.0 2.6 32 0 0.00 0.0 7 1996-01-15 41 20 30.5 0.2 34 0 0.00 0.0 5 1996-01-16 39 16 27.5 -2.8 37 0 T 0.0 5 1996-01-17 44 35 39.5 9.2 25 0 0.10 0.0 3 1996-01-18 50 34 42.0 11.7 23 0 0.02 0.0 2 1996-01-19 56 28 42.0 11.7 23 0 0.64 T 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 18 hours ago, Brian5671 said: we've done well last 20 yrs with snow and most of the winters (outside of 13-14 or 14-15) were AN.... 02-03, 03-04 and 10-11 were pretty cold as well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 12 hours ago, Drz1111 said: everyone with a pulse has migrated to twitter. The only time I see tweets is when they're posted in other places. 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Ha. There are advantages to those types of winter-more outdoor activity, less in heating bills, nothing to shovel/snowblow. Once I gave up that year I actually enjoyed the winter especially March which was essentially like May or even June at times. I'm ready to give one up and be surprised if we end up with a good one rather than find a reason that we're going to have a good one and be disappointed. Punt... 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Didnt we have a severe weather event in January 1996 with temps in the upper 60s? I remember that as well as a big supermarket roof collapse in Massapequa a week after the big blizzard. The roof collapsed on the Caldor here in Mahopac too. That building just finally went empty recently when KMart closed. The repaired roof is still intact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 More rain coming up on the gfs at hour 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Cold and snowy has been evenly matched with mild and snowy since 02-03 . But mild winters have been more common than cold ones. cold and snowy 02-03 03-04 09-10 10-11 13-14 14-15 mild and snowy 04-05 05-06 12-13 15-16 16-17 17-18 Mild less snow 06-07 07-08 11-12 18-19 cold with near normal snow 08-09 08-09 seems to be the least common type of winter funny those winters were a dime a dozen in the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 08-09 seems to be the least common type of winter funny those winters were a dime a dozen in the 80s. Yeah, the 2010’s had 6 mild winters and 4 cold ones. But 8 with above normal snow and only 2 below. +T +S 12-13 15-16 16-17 17-18 +T - S 11-12 18-19 -T +S 09-10 10-11 13-14 14-15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Rainy weekend on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The last season for NYC with every month from November to March with below normal temperatures was 95-96. No surprise that that was our snowiest season on record. The January thaw was also accompanied by one of the worst winter flash flood events in the Northeast. NYC Nov....-4.1 Dec....-5.1 Jan.....-2.1 Feb.....-1.5 Mar.....-3.6 I'd love to see that just one more time before AGW fully takes over. It's not impossible either, just ask the northern plains. However we'd have to get a major pattern reshuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the 2010’s had 6 mild winters and 4 cold ones. But 8 with above normal snow and only 2 below. If you want to throw March in the mix.... 6 out of the last 7 have been below normal, averaging nearly 11" of snow...Stats from my station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Rainy weekend on the gfs Sunday is wet, Saturday is dry verbatim. 6z had Saturday wet and Sunday dry....flip flip flip flop. I'll wait for the euro. (which was dry both days at 0z) - Euro is wet Sunday, but we are ok Saturday-looks like a big rainmaker coming up from the gulf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 35 minutes ago, doncat said: If you want to throw March in the mix.... 6 out of the last 7 have been below normal, averaging nearly 11" of snow...Stats from my station. 16-17 was the only season this decade that the November and March departure pattern didn’t match up. Be interesting to see if the relationship holds again this coming season. NYC Season...Nov....Mar 18-19.....-3.3.....-0.9 17-18.....-1.1.....-2.4 16-17.....+2.1....-3.3 15-16.....+5.1....+6.4 14-15.....-2.4.....-4.4 13-14.....-2.4......-4.8 12-13.....-3.8......-2.4 11-12....+4.2.....+8.4 10-11.....+0.2.....-0.2 09-10....+3.4.....+5.7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 At the very least this looks to be our 2nd wettest October of the decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Just got back from the DR. Drought conditions there due to the persistent SE ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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