Rtd208 Posted October 21, 2019 Author Share Posted October 21, 2019 Picked up 0.70" of rain for the day yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Next 8 days are still averaging 57degs., or about 4degs. AN. Month to date is +1.7[60.2]. Should be +2.2[59.5] by the 29th. 52.5* here at 6am. 61.5* by Noon. 63.0* by 1pm. 66.3* by 2:30pm. Looks like I peaked at 67.4* at 3:15pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 16 hours ago, Rtd208 said: That could be good and bad in the winter. Storms would come further north but also warmer air. That’s why we eventually need to shift this -PNA pattern. The storms that do slip to our SE with patterns like this also have marginal antecedent air masses. So it’s more and interior snow and mix or rain at the coast. Not to mention all the cutters and huggers. The NW-SE temperature dipole pattern across the US this month is ridiculous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: That’s why we eventually need to shift this -PNA pattern. The storms that do slip to our SE with patterns like this also have marginal antecedent air masses. So it’s more and interior snow and mix or rain at the coast. Not to mention all the cutters and huggers. The NW-SE temperature dipole pattern across the US this month is ridiculous. This pattern scares me, for its incredible persistence. Absolutely nothing would be worse then cutter and rain to cold and dry to cutter and rain. We need a full scale pattern change. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: This pattern scares me, for its incredible persistence. Absolutely nothing would be worse then cutter and rain to cold and dry to cutter and rain. We need a full scale pattern change. This has been the pattern for several winters now and it'll probably continue this season. Strong, transient blocking will be the only thing that can offset this. Hopefully things time right at least a few times this winter to give us some snow even if temps are AN overall. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Nice warmup coming on the long range guidance for the beginning of November. Would be nice if we could maintain highs in the 60's for the foreseeable future. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Nice warmup coming on the long range guidance for the beginning of November. Would be nice if we could maintain highs in the 60's for the foreseeable future. A brief cold shot at the end of this month Let's get all the warm weather done with in November . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: A brief cold shot at the end of this month Let's get all the warm weather done with in November . Nah, hoping for a warm mild Winter after last years brutal second half. 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Nah, hoping for a warm mild Winter after last years brutal second half. What brutal 2nd half ? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: This pattern scares me, for its incredible persistence. Absolutely nothing would be worse then cutter and rain to cold and dry to cutter and rain. We need a full scale pattern change. It’s the latest version of the 2010’s stuck weather patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It’s the latest version of the 2010’s stuck weather patterns. the -nao has kept us from getting even higher anomalies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 57 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the -nao has kept us from getting even higher anomalies Yeah, the -NAO and -EPO gave us many days with onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: A brief cold shot at the end of this month Let's get all the warm weather done with in November . A cold November is often a waste. Still often to warm for snow and then it warms up in December after the pattern breaks down....but let's hope for a pattern change-seems that we've already started with the cold pattern being 15 days away.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: What brutal 2nd half ? the blocking showed up in March/April/May leading to cold and rain most of the time...granted not the 2nd half of winter per se, but the pattern finally came when it was mainly too late. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 People are giving up on winter and it’s mid October, this is hilarious terrible analysis on here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: People are giving up on winter and it’s mid October, this is hilarious terrible analysis on here. every. damn. year. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: People are giving up on winter and it’s mid October, this is hilarious terrible analysis on here. Just now, ny10019 said: every. damn. year. who's giving up? people are just noting the persistence of the pattern this year. Can it change? Sure. Read more, post less. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Did anyone notice the NAM performance on yesterdays ex-Nestor? I thought superior to any other model from long range til about 12 hours before the rain started (much further north on heavy precip, low pressure track). This includes the EC, GFS, CMC, UK, HREF and HRRR. Walt 2135z/21 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 18 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: People are giving up on winter and it’s mid October, this is hilarious terrible analysis on here. IMO, it's too early to be certain of the winter outlook (good or bad). Some critical pieces are beginning to fall into place. Others remain to be resolved. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: It’s the latest version of the 2010’s stuck weather patterns. It's an AN pattern but probably not a death knell regarding snow chances. In fact a pattern like last season with more blocking would probably turn out ok. The -EPO should also give us some good arctic shots too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 A more west-based version of 2014-15 wouldn't be that bad. The trough that year was too far east and so the Mid Atlantic got fringed repeatedly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's an AN pattern but probably not a death knell regarding snow chances. In fact a pattern like last season with more blocking would probably turn out ok. The -EPO should also give us some good arctic shots too. we've done well last 20 yrs with snow and most of the winters (outside of 13-14 or 14-15) were AN.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the -NAO and -EPO gave us many days with onshore flow. the -nao didn't really take off until may. a few months earlier and we could have gotten a ku 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 4 hours ago, Snow88 said: A brief cold shot at the end of this month Let's get all the warm weather done with in November . Whatever happened to the old fashioned winters when I was a kid? It would start to turn colder by mid November and more or less stay that way into March minus the week long thaw in January. Damn climate change. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 DT scores some recent CFS Winter Outlooks during the first minutes of his latest video. He too feels (paranoid like me?)the outputs never show BN because the government is promoting Global Warming and hopes you never actually do any verification------that you just see the Outlooks-----but our members know better! Of course he covers the next week and some 'beyonds' via Siberian Snow Cover (current and about to happen) and projected TeleConnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 So much for not guessing at the winter 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 26 minutes ago, CIK62 said: DT scores some recent CFS Winter Outlooks during the first minutes of his latest video. He too feels (paranoid like me?)the outputs never show BN because the government is promoting Global Warming and hopes you never actually do any verification------that you just see the Outlooks-----but our members know better! Of course he covers the next week and some 'beyonds' via Siberian Snow Cover (current and about to happen) and projected TeleConnections. The current US government is trying skew the data? Are you kidding? The leader of our country calls climate change a hoax FFS 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: A cold November is often a waste. Still often to warm for snow and then it warms up in December after the pattern breaks down....but let's hope for a pattern change-seems that we've already started with the cold pattern being 15 days away.... True, the November thing is starting to hold some water. I’d rather see a positive AO in November allow some cold air to build in the arctic. One thing is for sure, the arctic needs to cool down. Record warmth and record low sea ice up there effects everything down stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Under bright sunshine, readings soared well into the 60s across the New York City area. High temperatures included 67° at Central Park and 69° at Newark. During the next 6-9 days, temperatures will likely average warmer than normal. However, October could end with a cool shot. The cool conditions will likely to persist through the first week of November as the Arctic Oscillation goes negative for at least a time. Nevertheless, the cool shot should prove transient. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was +7.41 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.637. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Despite what might be a somewhat cooler than normal start to November, a warmer than normal outcome for the month as a whole remains likely. On October 20, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.912 (RMM). The October 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.662. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 59.0°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 83%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 On 10/21/2019 at 5:20 PM, Brian5671 said: who's giving up? people are just noting the persistence of the pattern this year. Can it change? Sure. Read more, post less. What pattern? We were dry the last two months now we’re in a cutter city pattern. Give it time once that cold air builds in up north 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now