SnoSki14 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Models now trending away from the late October cool down despite a building PNA and -NAO/AO. Big cold dump out west struggles to make it here as weak SE ridge builds. Wouldn't be a terrible pattern for the winter though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Models now trending away from the late October cool down despite a building PNA and -NAO/AO. Big cold dump out west struggles to make it here as weak SE ridge builds. Wouldn't be a terrible pattern for the winter though. The models have been struggling post super typhoon recurve. Now the new WPAC developments are compounding the errors. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Models now trending away from the late October cool down despite a building PNA and -NAO/AO. Big cold dump out west struggles to make it here as weak SE ridge builds. Wouldn't be a terrible pattern for the winter though. The kind of sustained blocking necessary to lock in a prolonged cold pattern is lacking. Transient blocks won’t cut it, unfortunately. November still appears likely to be warmer than normal. December could be, as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 (accidentally saved under wrong topic earlier today) The next 8 days are averaging 57degs., or about 3degs. AN. Month to date is +2.1[61.0]. Should be +2.4[59.7] by the 27th. 46.5* here at 6am. 60.0* by 3pm Made it to 61+ before 4pm. Next 7 days now look to be +5, up from +3 this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The kind of sustained blocking necessary to lock in a prolonged cold pattern is lacking. Transient blocks won’t cut it, unfortunately. November still appears likely to be warmer than normal. December could be, as well. transient blocks could bring some snow if its cold enough... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 18z Nams still show rain late day tomorrow. No other model supports it. Upton has rain likley 3pm on but I don’t see it unless NAM scores a coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 32 minutes ago, uncle W said: transient blocks could bring some snow if its cold enough... Yes. I think we will get some shots at snow in December even if the month is warm overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 18z Nams still show rain late day tomorrow. No other model supports it. Upton has rain likley 3pm on but I don’t see it unless NAM scores a coup Almost every model has some light rain in the afternoon, but not nearly as heavy as what the NAM indicates. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Almost every model has some light rain in the afternoon, but not nearly as heavy as what the NAM indicates. Yeah, I was just looking at 18z RGEM and it gets some rain up to the north of NYC. Tomorrow afternoon/evening will likely be rainy, even if it's only light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 1 hour ago, uncle W said: transient blocks could bring some snow if its cold enough... We just need some help from the Pacific. The -PNA/SE Ridge combo has been running the table this year. 2019 pattern to date 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Milder conditions will gradually return in coming days. Post-Tropical Storm Nestor will likely track rapidly to the east northeast off the Middle Atlantic coast and out to sea. Its rain should pass south of the New York City Metro area later tomorrow and tomorrow night. There is a small chance that a few showers could reach the area. Parts of the Middle Atlantic region including Washington and Baltimore could see a period of rain from Nestor. The last week of October will likely start mild but end with a cool shot. The cool conditions increasingly appear likely to persist through the first week of November as the Arctic Oscillation goes negative for at least a time. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around October 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincide with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was +10.63 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.989. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Despite what might be a somewhat cooler than normal start to November, a warmer than normal outcome for the month as a whole remains likely. On October 18, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.362 (RMM). The October 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.117. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 59.0°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 78%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 October’s been pretty normal temperature-wise beyond the first two days and the 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Nam caving finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 20, 2019 Author Share Posted October 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam caving finally The NAM actually caved at 12z, it came back north at 18z and now pushes the precipitation further south again at 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 yet the sref went way nw 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 20, 2019 Author Share Posted October 20, 2019 Temp actually dropping steadily here. Current temp 48 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 27 minutes ago, forkyfork said: yet the sref went way nw And RGEM came north with the more significant rain. It now gets a half inch up to NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: And RGEM came north with the more significant rain. It now gets a half inch up to NYC. At least it's not snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Currently under a TOR warning down here in Palm Beach County. Had a real EAS activation unlike the BS warnings in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 57degs. again or about 4degs. AN. (used 52/58 for today) Month to date is +1.7(60.5). Should be near +2.7(59.4) by the 28th. 54.1* here at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 39 currently. Clouds have moved in. At least yesterday was an excellent outdoor day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 As per radar the rain shield seems rather far north and west. Rain looks likely in nyc by 11-12, if not a bit earlier?, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 This has to be one of the most extreme -PNA patterns we ever had in October. It’s the perfect inverse of the October +PNA composite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 8 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: At least it's not snow no kidding, would've been a nightmare accumulation forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 We should get some decent rain out of this, maybe a half inch or more. Pretty good given this was supposed to dodge us. And it's another clear indication that the dry, inactive pattern is over. Looks like plenty more to come later this week and then a potential gradient pattern that could make Halloween stormy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: We should get some decent rain out of this, maybe a half inch or more. Pretty good given this was supposed to dodge us. And it's another clear indication that the dry, inactive pattern is over. Looks like plenty more to come later this week and then a potential gradient pattern that could make Halloween stormy. And judging by the radar the nam missed alot of the heavy rains back into eastern and central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 37 this morning, coldest yet, I think the forecast was 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 It’s going to rain a lot today surprise a lot of people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 17 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: It’s going to rain a lot today surprise a lot of people! a rare coup by the NAM-(although areas east of NYC will hang onto dry longer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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