October 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[weatherpruf]

On 10/10/2019 at 2:16 PM, NycStormChaser said:

Some of my video from this morning 

 

That's a pretty substantial sea right in the harbor...jeez.

[weatherpruf]

On 10/11/2019 at 8:17 AM, donsutherland1 said:

While that's probably not the most likely scenario, it is a possibility sometime after mid-October if things turn out a little warmer than currently shown on the guidance. November would be less likely, as such readings are relatively rare.

Nov 1990 was very warm, we may have gotten there if anyone cares to look it up

[bluewave]

July 23rd was the last 1.00”+ rainfall event for all 5 of our major climate stations at the same time. We have a chance with the the storm system on Wednesday. Just need the rapidly deepening secondary to track close to the area. Should be a brief cool down behind the storm. Then the SE Ridge builds and above normal temperatures return. 
 

 

 

[NYCweatherNOW]

How about this guys? Halloween snow? lol

[donsutherland1]

Clouds parted and it was a partly to mostly sunny afternoon at the New York Botanical Garden. Temperatures rose into the middle 60s. Four photos:

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Nov 1990 was very warm, we may have gotten there if anyone cares to look it up

Both Central Park and LGA reached 78° on November 3. JFK reached 75°. Newark had a high temperature of 79°. So, 1990 came close, but just missed.

[uncle W]

warmest October, November, December period since 1930...snowfall for the winter...

2015.....53.7...….31.8"

2001.....51.8...…...3.5"

1990.....51.6...….24.9"

1931.....51.4..…...5.3"

1984.....51.0...….24.1"

2011.....50.8...…...7.4"

1994.....50.7...….11.8"

1982.....50.6...….27.2"

1979.....50.3...….12.8"

1946.....50.0...….30.6"

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, uncle W said:

warmest October, November, December period since 1930...snowfall for the winter...

2015.....53.7...….31.8"

2001.....51.8...…...3.5"

1990.....51.6...….24.9"

1931.....51.4..…...5.3"

1984.....51.0...….24.1"

2011.....50.8...…...7.4"

1994.....50.7...….11.8"

1982.....50.6...….27.2"

1979.....50.3...….12.8"

1946.....50.0...….30.6"

Hard to believe the last time NYC had all 3 OND months with below normal temperatures was 2002.

Oct 02...-1.7

Nov 02...-1.7

Dec 02...-1.5

[donsutherland1]

Unseasonably mild weather will prevail through Columbus Day. Afterward, a short period of cooler weather will be followed by another warmer pattern for the southern New England areas. This cooler weather will likely coincide with a mid-week system that could bring much of the region 0.50"-1.00" rain with locally higher amounts. The last week of October will likely be mild, but a cool shot could occur at some point. The GFS remains most aggressive. The cool shot will likely be transient.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased.

Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal.

The SOI was +4.45 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.305.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

On October 11, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.144 (RMM). The October 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.277.

In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases.

In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

Based on the latest extended guidance, the first week of November and possibly beyond could be warmer than normal overall.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 74%.

[Rtd208]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

July 23rd was the last 1.00”+ rainfall event for all 5 of our major climate stations at the same time. We have a chance with the the storm system on Wednesday. Just need the rapidly deepening secondary to track close to the area. Should be a brief cool down behind the storm. Then the SE Ridge builds and above normal temperatures return. 
 

 

 

It looks pretty windy on Thursday as well. It looks like the system develops a little earlier and is stronger on the 12z runs versus prior runs.

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Hard to believe the last time NYC had all 3 OND months with below normal temperatures was 2002.

Oct 02...-1.7

Nov 02...-1.7

Dec 02...-1.5

some of the coldest Oct/Nov/Dec years...

1976.....41.5

1989.....43.3

1933.....43.5

1962.....44.0

1980.....44.1

1958.....44.3

2000.....44.5

1955.....44.6

2002.....44.7

1969.....44.8

[doncat]

5 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Nov 1990 was very warm, we may have gotten there if anyone cares to look it up

My station  has hit 80° once in Nov, and that was on the 3rd in 2003.

[Rtd208]

It looks like the 00z GFS is much wetter for the mid to late week coastal storm. It also looks like it develops earlier, winds could be an issue on Thursday.

[LibertyBell]

On 10/11/2019 at 9:09 AM, bluewave said:

Looks like a record 6 SD jet streak for this time of year north of Japan with the super typhoon recurve. So expect a very active and changeable pattern next few weeks. This could eventually end up pumping the SE Ridge for some late October warmth. 

 

 

 

Chances for some late October tropical activity on the east coast?

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, doncat said:

My station  has hit 80° once in Nov, and that was on the 3rd in 2003.

Not in 1993?

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, uncle W said:

some of the coldest Oct/Nov/Dec years...

1976.....41.5

1989.....43.3

1933.....43.5

1962.....44.0

1980.....44.1

1958.....44.3

2000.....44.5

1955.....44.6

2002.....44.7

1969.....44.8

Only great winters in that list followed 1933 and 2002

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Both Central Park and LGA reached 78° on November 3. JFK reached 75°. Newark had a high temperature of 79°. So, 1990 came close, but just missed.

NYC hit 80 on Nov 15, 1993

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, uncle W said:

warmest October, November, December period since 1930...snowfall for the winter...

2015.....53.7...….31.8"

2001.....51.8...…...3.5"

1990.....51.6...….24.9"

1931.....51.4..…...5.3"

1984.....51.0...….24.1"

2011.....50.8...…...7.4"

1994.....50.7...….11.8"

1982.....50.6...….27.2"

1979.....50.3...….12.8"

1946.....50.0...….30.6"

Most of the normal to above normal snowfall winters were one trick ponies, like 1982-83 and 2015-16 (although that latter one trick was my only 30" snowstorm!)

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unseasonably mild weather will prevail through Columbus Day. Afterward, a short period of cooler weather will be followed by another warmer pattern for the southern New England areas. This cooler weather will likely coincide with a mid-week system that could bring much of the region 0.50"-1.00" rain with locally higher amounts. The last week of October will likely be mild, but a cool shot could occur at some point. The GFS remains most aggressive. The cool shot will likely be transient.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased.

Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal.

The SOI was +4.45 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.305.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

On October 11, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.144 (RMM). The October 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.277.

In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases.

In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

Based on the latest extended guidance, the first week of November and possibly beyond could be warmer than normal overall.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 74%.

Don, when both October and November are above normal temps, the following winters are mild and snowless most of the time, right?

 

[doncat]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Not in 1993?

78° on the 15th in 1993...That's also my warmest for so late.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 59degs., or about 3degs.+ AN.

Month to date is +2.5[62.5].      Should be near +2.8[61.1] by the 21st.

55.7* here at 6am.

Quickly check out the nearly full moon due west a few degrees above horizon!  6:25am.   Typical 'Moon Illusion',---when near the horizon it looks enormous sometimes.

[the_other_guy]

Moon beautiful this morning! 

53F at 6am...and that is AN for a low again.

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Moon beautiful this morning! 

53F at 6am...and that is AN for a low again.

Full moon is tonight!

On the 13th!

But not Friday the 13th lol.

 

[gravitylover]

On 10/11/2019 at 10:23 PM, jm1220 said:

October has 20 more days, and a massive ridge in the last few days of the month can easily undo any coolness now. Average highs also come down pretty fast from here and even a day not that warm at the start of the month would be quite warm for Halloween. 

The leaves are also falling and turning colors because of how dry it’s been, not the temp necessarily. 

I think the leaves turn in response to shorter daylight hours. I do think the temps also play a role in some aspects of it. The most recent cool shot was the coldest yet and the trees were much more vivid after the cold night than the afternoon before, I know that's anecdotal but I've watched it happen plenty of times before. I also think that a good windstorm like we just had blows off the weaker leaves and now what's left will look great today after the cold still night last night. I'll let you know  

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I think the leaves turn in response to shorter daylight hours. I do think the temps also play a role in some aspects of it. The most recent cool shot was the coldest yet and the trees were much more vivid after the cold night than the afternoon before, I know that's anecdotal but I've watched it happen plenty of times before. I also think that a good windstorm like we just had blows off the weaker leaves and now what's left will look great today after the cold still night last night. I'll let you know  

I saw the same thing after the cold shot in late Sept over in the Poconos.  The leaves became vivid after the temps went down into the 30s there!

 

[dWave]

49 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Moon beautiful this morning! 

53F at 6am...and that is AN for a low again.

Had to head out wayy too early for a sun morning, but I did see the moon, looked amazing. Also star filled sky looked extra bright. Sometimes you can see them in the city.  Low of 53 here. 

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

It looks pretty windy on Thursday as well. It looks like the system develops a little earlier and is stronger on the 12z runs versus prior runs.

The 0z models were even stronger with the secondary low development. The faster the upper low goes negative tilt, the closer the surface low with heavy rain and strong winds is to us. 

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, dWave said:

Had to head out wayy too early for a sun morning, but I did see the moon, looked amazing. Also star filled sky looked extra bright. Sometimes you can see them in the city.  Low of 53 here. 

You probably saw Orion,  it was high up in the Southern sky around 3 am.

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, when both October and November are above normal temps, the following winters are mild and snowless most of the time, right?

 

Don is showing the reality that the upcoming winter will likely be warm.

A warm, dry Oct/Nov is 2001/2011 in a nutshell and it's been a while since we had a truly warm, snowless winter. Even the past few warm winters weren't that bad in the snowfall department. 

I for one wouldn't mind a nice, warm snow free winter. No traffic headaches, no shoveling/ice issues, 60s during the day, sounds pretty good imo. 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Don is showing the reality that the upcoming winter will likely be warm.

A warm, dry Oct/Nov is 2001/2011 in a nutshell and it's been a while since we had a truly warm, snowless winter. Even the past few warm winters weren't that bad in the snowfall department. 

I for one wouldn't mind a nice, warm snow free winter. No traffic headaches, no shoveling/ice issues, 60s during the day, sounds pretty good imo. 

I see either that happening or a winter that's mostly like that but with one big snowfall somewhere in the middle (likely February.)  But that usually happens in a strong el nino, which we dont have (an exception is 05-06).  There's also a possibility of the elusive backloaded winter that gets us to around average snowfall to maybe slightly above average (around 30").