October 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

We really dodged a bullet. If Sub-Tropical Storm Melissa was 350 miles further west, we'd be talking about heavy rain and high winds with insane wave heights. 

[NycStormChaser]

 

[bluewave]

Great display of sea foam today at Nantasket Beach.
 

 

[the_other_guy]

It was a very cool storm from the air

I was flying the WATRS Tracks down to the Turks and Ciacos today. 

On the way down they kept us closer to the coast, But on the way back they sent us right up. 

She’s a monster.

Nice flying conditions behind it though.

 

I think we bust warm this weekend.

This airmass wants to go for low 70s without clouds.

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday, 7.1" snow fell in Bismarck. That easily surpassed the previous daily record for October 10 of 2.3" from 1959. Today, an additional 6.1" fell, surpassing the daily record of 1.6" from 1909. The 13.2" total is the earliest snowfall of at least a foot on record for Bismarck. The previous record was October 28-29, 1991 when 15.9" snow fell. In addition, 5 of the 6 12" or greater snowstorms (including the current storm) that occurred on or before November 30 took place after 1980.

Record low temperatures were also set in parts of the West. Records included: Colorado Springs: 9° (old record: 14°, 1946); Denver: 9° (old record: 22°, 1946); Laramie, WY: 3° (old record: 9°, 1977); and, Pocatello, ID: 14° (old record: 19°, 2003).

After mid-month, a warmer pattern will likely develop and then, following perhaps a transient shot of cold, could still lock in throughout the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The last week of October will likely be unseasonably mild.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased.

Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal.

The SOI was -4.32 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.535.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

On October 10, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.281 (RMM). The October 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.200.

In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 70%.

　

[gravitylover]

Even though it's dry out it has that raw feeling, it's cold and windy, leaves are falling like snow... and Don is talking about a 70% chance of warmer than normal. I dunno man, it feels awfully  fall like out there  

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Even though it's dry out it has that raw feeling, it's cold and windy, leaves are falling like snow... and Don is talking about a 70% chance of warmer than normal. I dunno man, it feels awfully  fall like out there  

October has 20 more days, and a massive ridge in the last few days of the month can easily undo any coolness now. Average highs also come down pretty fast from here and even a day not that warm at the start of the month would be quite warm for Halloween. 

The leaves are also falling and turning colors because of how dry it’s been, not the temp necessarily. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Tonight’s high tide ended up being the highest of all in my neighborhood. The entire end of my block had at least some inundation. Right up there with the highest tides since sandy and close to the perfect storm. Amazing that we reached these level without ever having high winds. Goes to show what days of large East swells can do by blocking water from leaving the bays. Also noticed some major erosion. A high impact event for the coast.

[NycStormChaser]

Tonight’s high tide ended up being the highest of all in my neighborhood. The entire end of my block had at least some inundation. Right up there with the highest tides since sandy and close to the perfect storm. Amazing that we reached these level without ever having high winds. Goes to show what days of large East swells can do by blocking water from leaving the bays. Also noticed some major erosion. A high impact event for the coast.

Yeah it's very impressive along the jersey shore tonight as well. Have to monitor for a possible coastal storm again next week as well.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[SnoSki14]

Wow the EPS has a massive torch for us in about 9-10 days. That's easily 80s, maybe even a stray 90F in there.

Downright scary how often these record breaking torches are showing up. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Wow the EPS has a massive torch for us in about 9-10 days. That's easily 80s, maybe even a stray 90F in there.

Downright scary how often these record breaking torches are showing up. 

I'd say that up to 74 is more likely. Even in a super warm month like October of 2007 didn't have highs near 90 in the second half of October. 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days are averaging 59degs., or about 3degs AN.

Month to date is +2.5[62.6].       Should be near +2.7[61.0] by the 20th.

 55.8* here at 6am.      69.4* by 4pm, all sun, lite breeze.

The GFS does go from 80* to 40*,  bet. the 22nd-25th.  88* is record(22nd.) in a month that saw the earliest Trace of Snow ever, back on the 10th., 1979!

[bluewave]

So far this is the driest first half of fall for  several of our stations. Just about every storm since the end of August underperformed on rainfall. FRG has had less than 1.00”of rain since September 1st.

Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Oct 11	Missing Count
1	2019-10-11	1.69	0
2	1997-10-11	1.77	0
3	1982-10-11	1.84	0
4	1941-10-11	1.97	0
5	1948-10-11	1.99	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Oct 11	Missing Count
1	1982-10-11	1.28	0
2	2019-10-11	1.38	0
3	1997-10-11	1.42	0
4	1986-10-11	1.63	0
5	1965-10-11	1.80	0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Oct 11	Missing Count
1	2019-10-11	0.80	4
2	2013-10-11	0.90	0
3	2007-10-11	2.40	0
4	2001-10-11	2.41	2
5	2016-10-11	2.64	0

Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Oct 11	Missing Count
1	2016-10-11	1.17	0
2	2019-10-11	1.20	1
3	2014-10-11	1.66	0
4	2017-10-11	1.88	2
5	2007-10-11	2.48	0

 

 

[uncle W]

heres what eight of the ten driest falls did in the winter...the other two 1881=82 and 1879-80 had near average precip...

 

[dmillz25]

16 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

It was a very cool storm from the air

I was flying the WATRS Tracks down to the Turks and Ciacos today. 

On the way down they kept us closer to the coast, But on the way back they sent us right up. 

She’s a monster.

Nice flying conditions behind it though.

 

I think we bust warm this weekend.

This airmass wants to go for low 70s without clouds.

I was on a flight to the DR yesterday morning and after some early turbulence I would say it was the fastest time getting here from NY

[bluewave]

Root for the wetter Euro Wednesday if you finally want to see a good soaking rain. It tracks the rapidly deepening secondary low right across our area. Could also be wind issues if the stronger Euro solution verifies.

 

[SACRUS]

The next period to watch for strong warmth to record highs (in the extreme) would be starting net weekend 10/20 - 10/23 period.  Pending on  how things progress we could be looking 75 - 80 range, perhaps above.   We'll have to watch the center and positioning of the ridge and with clouds and any S / SE flow developing to limit the potential.  

[SACRUS]

Currently partly sunny sandwiched between the clouds from Sub Tropical storms and approaching clouds to the west.

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

The next period to watch for strong warmth to record highs (in the extreme) would be starting net weekend 10/20 - 10/23 period.  Pending on  how things progress we could be looking 75 - 80 range, perhaps above.   We'll have to watch the center and positioning of the ridge and with clouds and any S / SE flow developing to limit the potential.  

Then the weather should turn colder after that for a brief time.

[tdp146]

12 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Tonight’s high tide ended up being the highest of all in my neighborhood. The entire end of my block had at least some inundation. Right up there with the highest tides since sandy and close to the perfect storm. Amazing that we reached these level without ever having high winds. Goes to show what days of large East swells can do by blocking water from leaving the bays. Also noticed some major erosion. A high impact event for the coast.

Finally got a chance to get to Tobay this morning. Beach is beat up. Ocean took several feet of the new dune they put up after Sandy. Water was crashing under the beach house well after high tide. Waves were really clean though. 

[psv88]

Socked in today, don’t see how we get anywhere close to forecast highs 

[dWave]

Sun is out, like someone flipped a switch, nothing gradual about it. Mostly sunny 61.

[MJO812]

Check out the long range GFS. Gfs has been showing a change to colder weather by mid month. Its possibly rushing it but I would love go see how the typhoon affects the pattern  going forward. 

[Stormlover74]

Next weekend looks like a repeat of this one

[bluewave]

Storm finally pulling away. Sun just came out here.

 

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Then the weather should turn colder after that for a brief time.

That's all we get nowadays, weeks of warmth to record warm with a couple days of cool mixed in. 

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

The next period to watch for strong warmth to record highs (in the extreme) would be starting net weekend 10/20 - 10/23 period.  Pending on  how things progress we could be looking 75 - 80 range, perhaps above.   We'll have to watch the center and positioning of the ridge and with clouds and any S / SE flow developing to limit the potential.  

Today's Euro really pumps the ridge up but the strongest anomalies are to the N & W, we get undercut somewhat. 

However I have a feeling this will change and we'll get the brunt of the heat. Widespread 80s for 2-3 days look likely.

This current pattern would be really ugly in the winter. The -NAO blocking is gone and there's a relentless Pac Jet present. Better hope that changes by Dec/Jan. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's all we get nowadays, weeks of warmth to record warm with a couple days of cool mixed in. 

Today's Euro really pumps the ridge up but the strongest anomalies are to the N & W, we get undercut somewhat. 

However I have a feeling this will change and we'll get the brunt of the heat. Widespread 80s for 2-3 days look likely.

This current pattern would be really ugly in the winter. The -NAO blocking is gone and there's a relentless Pac Jet present. Better hope that changes by Dec/Jan. 

Every model has the ridge in the east

[forkyfork]

no cold in sight with this pattern

[CIK62]

Well the T could not wait for 'any stinking ridges' by me.  Touched 70* at 4:15pm.

The last days of October may still fly in the face of rest of month with a BN finale.

[weatherpruf]

On 10/10/2019 at 1:49 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

One thing that wasn’t blown was the marine forecast. Some of the largest and most powerful waves I have have surfed in Long Beach. Just monster walls of water imploding with a sound like thunder. Waves should increase even further into tomorrow morning. The huge east fetch is really working it’s magic. 

I know, it has been extremely depressing and has cost the sport fishing industry probably in the millions. But at least you guys are getting something out of it; this kind of disruption for this long is really unusual. Mother nature doing her thing again.....