bluewave Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 34 minutes ago, uncle W said: 1963 had a mild October and November but very cold December...coldest week and month came in December that winter... 16 all-time October record high temperatures broken or tied today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 76/68. Sticky out there. A/C on once again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: The 18z GFS has a pretty sizeable rain event/coastal storm for the early and middle part of next week. Still a little ways out but nice to see things becoming active again. That’s a thing of my happiest dreams. I’m fully completely sick of hoses and watering. 10 hours a day, day after day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 High 81 today, fell back into the mid 70s now jumped back to 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Today was a day of records in many parts of the United States. In the wake of a historic late September snowstorm, record low temperatures were recorded in parts of Montana. Records included: Cut Bank: 1°(old record: 14°, 1950) Great Falls: 9° (old record: 22°, 1959) In parts of the East, monthly record high temperatures were shattered. Monthly records included: Akron: 91° (previous October record: 89°, 10/1/1927 and 10/5/1922) Birmingham: 99° (previous October record: 94°, 10/1/1919, 10/5/1927, and 10/6/1954) Cleveland: 93° (previous October record: 90°, 10/6/1946) Huntsville, AL: 99° (previous October record: 96°, 10/8/1911) Lexington, KY: 97° (previous October record: 93°, 10/6/1941) Louisville: 96° (previous October record: 93°, 10/7-8/2007) Nashville: 98° (previous October record: 95°, 10/1/1953, 10/5/1954, and 10/8/2007) Pensacola: 96° (previous October record: 95°, 10/8/1884 and 10/5/1951) Some of this warmth will push into the Mid-Atlantic region tomorrow. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 80s into parts of southern New England. Locations, including Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Newark, and possibly even New York City could reach 90°. The last October 90° or above temperature for select locations occurred on the following dates: Baltimore: October 15, 2015, 90° New York City-Central Park: October 6, 1941, 90° New York City-JFK Airport: October 8, 2007, 90° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: October 6, 1946, 90° Newark: October 6, 1959: 91° Philadelphia: October 7, 1941: 93° Washington, DC: October 4, 2018, 90° Afterward, a period of cooler than normal readings will move into the region during the latter part of the first week of October. This pattern could last 7-10 days, though not every day will be cooler than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around September 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. The recent strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have continued to increase. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was +2.32 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was not available. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. Events during September, including the SOI's falling to -35.30 on September 19, the MJO's being in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the September 20-30 period for more than two days, the historic late September snowfall in Great Falls, MT, and the possible ongoing evolution toward a generally positive AO regime, favor a warmer than normal October based on past outcomes. On September 30, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.909 (RMM). The September 29-adjusted amplitude was 2.041. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 60%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Hate to follow that post with this one: Brown Marmorated Stinkbugs were everywhere around here today. Am wondering what tomorrow will be like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: The 18z GFS has a pretty sizeable rain event/coastal storm for the early and middle part of next week. Still a little ways out but nice to see things becoming active again. Euro showed something similar and October starts noreaster season so it's definitely possible. Looks like a neggie NAO influence as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 2 hours ago, stemwinder said: Hate to follow that post with this one: Brown Marmorated Stinkbugs were everywhere around here today. Am wondering what tomorrow will be like. Interesting. My parents in Allentown say they rarely see Stinkbugs anymore, which is noteworthy since the first one of those reported in the US was found there in 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sal Blandino Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 6 hours ago, Rtd208 said: The 18z GFS has a pretty sizeable rain event/coastal storm for the early and middle part of next week. Still a little ways out but nice to see things becoming active again. You know the way these damn models change their thinknig so damn drastically just pisses me off as a forecast viewer. 3 days ago I watched an animation map from a forecaster and these models showed nothing but dry weather into next week after this Thursday, then yesterday had tons of rain from late Sunday throguh Tuesday, then earlier today confined that rain to just Monday with dry weather back from Tuesday afternoon through the rest of next week now I see on this thread about a god damn coastal storm next Wednsday. Get the hell out of here with this shit. Those models suck big time and just need to be banned from social media period and just no more forecasting or blogging at all so it makes it much easier for everyone to allow the weather pattern to play itself out without seeing all this god damn negativity in discussion. I hate ****ing clouds and rain and always will. Just want NYC to be a sunny city for life but the main thing models need to learn to get their shit together cause this damn drastic changing thinknig by them is totally unacceptable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sal Blandino Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 7 hours ago, Rtd208 said: The 18z GFS has a pretty sizeable rain event/coastal storm for the early and middle part of next week. Still a little ways out but nice to see things becoming active again. I actually am not happy about this possibilty of it getting active again. I'm a fan of prolonged dry tranquil strecthes with nothing but blue sunny skies and love droughts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 There's some pretty gusty winds here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sal Blandino Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Sal Blandino said: 4 minutes ago, Sal Blandino said: I actually am not happy about this possibilty of it getting active again. I'm a fan of prolonged dry tranquil strecthes with nothing but blue sunny skies and love droughts. Only way I wouldn't care if it rained was only if it could do it all the time with not a cloud in the sky. Gloomy looks making it look like it's almost dark out just depresses me and puts me in a bitchy mood. It's the brightness that brings cheers and a smile to my face 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 2, 2019 Author Share Posted October 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, doncat said: Huh It looks like I will be adding another member to my ignore list lol. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Sal Blandino said: I actually am not happy about this possibilty of it getting active again. I'm a fan of prolonged dry tranquil strecthes with nothing but blue sunny skies and love droughts. There are states called Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico might want to look into it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 62degs., or about 2degs. AN. EURO is 90, the GFS is 91 for today. I have also seen 83(GFSx), 86 on the SREF Plumes. GFS LAMP is cloud covered all day and just 82. Luckaly we are not deciding between 32/33-Snow/Rain for today. 79.0* at Noon(+8 from yesterday, when I finished near 81*. Made 80.0* by 12:20pm-going to go to beach. 70.7* here at 6am. 71.7* by 9am. 73.0* at 10am. 76.4* at 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 why not count the next 8 days not including today? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days are averaging 62degs., or about 2degs. AN. EURO is 90, the GFS is 91 for today. I have also seen 83(GFSx), 86 on the SREF Plumes. GFS LAMP is cloud covered all day and just 82. Luckaly we are not deciding between 32/33-Snow/Rain for today. 70.7* here at 6am. given the heat in the midwest yesterday, if we can stay clear, we will roast today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 5 hours ago, Rtd208 said: It looks like I will be adding another member to my ignore list lol. Lmao I was just going to post this. Sounds like one of Tony's affiliates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 I haven't been following much of late. How do the prospects for rain look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 6 hours ago, Sal Blandino said: I actually am not happy about this possibilty of it getting active again. I'm a fan of prolonged dry tranquil strecthes with nothing but blue sunny skies and love droughts. Seriously, are you 12 yrs old? If not, you have issues. You sign up for a weather board and complain about the use and discussion of weather models and while living in a city that is cold and gloomy 5 months a year, you bitch that all YOU wants is Arizona weather as far as the eye can see. You are lucky you don't post in the NE forum. They would've mocked you and sent your ass back to the Rock that you crawled out from under a few days ago. Advice.. If you don't like to hear about storms, don't go on a weather forum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 9 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: I haven't been following much of late. How do the prospects for rain look? tomorrow looks like .25 to maybe .75 region wide. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sal Blandino Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 On 10/1/2019 at 7:56 AM, Sal Blandino said: This constant changing thinking of the weather models just really upsets me. Two days ago I was watching an animation of the precip on map and it forecasted nothing after Thursdays system until the very end of next week at the earliest and now today it has a ton of rain here from late Sunday through Tuesday. I mean this is just aggravating and frustrating that models never know anything. What I would like is that cold front to just please move through with any precip from late Sunday and be out of here by Monday with high pressure back in control from Monday through next week. This just makes looking at the forecast very frustrating 5 hours ago, RedSky said: There are states called Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico might want to look into it I want NYC to be like that with that kind of pattern too not just those states you mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Sal Blandino said: I want NYC to be like that with that kind of pattern too not just those states you mentioned Sorry not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 14 hours ago, forkyfork said: i forgot about that because of the time of year right? ring-of-fire pattern out in the midwest is also more typical of july. high clouds probably won't be much of an inhibitor today. short-term guidance brings temps of 90-93 to the entire city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 6 hours ago, Sal Blandino said: Sal, why suffer here? The desert states awaits. Everything you’ve described is there. Brilliant cool to cold nights with a tapestry of stars that would rival Van Gogh's masterpiece. The days would be filled with brilliant light as the night bowed to the ascension of Ra. For you a paradise that the I 95 urban environment will not duplicate. You should rush to enjoy it, albeit being wary of the occasional rattler, scorpion and dust storm. A small price considering what your leaving behind. I’m to old for adventure I will stay, listen to and feel the rain , snow, and wind driven spray of an angry sea. May we both find peace. As always ..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Already widespread upper 70s as of 9:20am, dews in the upper 60s too...very July like. Very warm readings on the short term models makes me think we exceed highs by a few degrees today pending any cloud debris. I think 93-95F will be common. We'll also get a boost from the recent dry conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Already widespread upper 70s as of 9:20am, dews in the upper 60s too...very July like. Very warm readings on the short term models makes me think we exceed highs by a few degrees today pending any cloud debris. I think 93-95F will be common. We'll also get a boost from the recent dry conditions. it will be a race b/w the cloud deck to our north sagging ESE over the next few hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Heat Index already at 90 here, that was fast. Temp is 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 One last hot day before fall kicks in tomorrow. Are there any more heat comebacks on the horizon, or is summer gone for good after today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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