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October 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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55 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Only a few hundreths of an inch of rain here, and I'm only slightly west of NYC. The main rain did not get too far west as expected. Would have been horrible if it was winter and we were just missing out on a big snowstorm.

Your area is often close to the sharp cutoff in precipitation when the track of the low is so far to the east. Like a rainfall version if 1-25-15.

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Your area is often close to the sharp cutoff in precipitation when the track of the low is so far to the east. Like a rainfall version if 1-25-15.

Approaching 1.50” out east now, soaker out there. Only about 0.40” here

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On the ferry back to LI and it’s rocking back and forth almost violently at times, just enough for things to fall off tables and make standing/walking difficult. My view out of the window is alternating between 100% ocean and 100% sky. It feels like I’m in the Bering Sea. Kind of scary.

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Parts of the region are now in the midst of a cloudy, windy, rainy, and cool period on account of an offshore storm. Parts of eastern Long Island and eastern New England could receive high winds and heavy rain into Friday. In general, those areas could see 2"-4" rain with local amounts in excess of 6". A moderate rainfall could occur in the New York City area and nearby suburbs.

Today, through 7 pm, daily rainfall records included: New London: 0.89" (old record: 0.83", 2016) and Westhampton: 1.67" (old record: 0.95", 1959 and 1995).

Meanwhile, another unseasonably cold air mass has moved into the northern Rockies is headed toward the northern Plains. The potential for some record low temperatures exists through Friday with the highest probability being locations in Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. Blizzard conditions could also develop in a portion of the Dakotas starting late tonight. Some areas in the Dakotas could see record low temperatures following the storm.

From late tonight through Friday Bismarck could pick up 8"-14" snow. Bismarck's daily snowfall records are as follows: October 10: 2.3", 1959 and October 11: 1.6", 1909. Since 1874, Bismarck has had only four days on or before October 12 where 4" or more snow fell: October 4, 1898: 5.8"; September 25, 1942: 4.1"; October 7, 1946: 4.9"; and, October 6, 1982: 4.7". Bismarck's earliest ever daily snowfall of 6" or more occurred on October 23, 1991 when 7.6" accumulated.

Farther east, this air mass will likely result in only a transient shot of cold. After mid-month, a warmer pattern will likely develop and then lock in throughout the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The last week of October will likely be unseasonably mild.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased.

Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal.

The SOI was -9.35 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.970.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after mid-October, likely following a brief cool shot, as does the extended range of the EPS. The unseasonable warmth could roll into the start of November.

On October 8, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.321 (RMM). The October 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.320.

The MJO has now been in Phase 1 for 18 consecutive days. That is the longest such streak since July 6-24, 2004 when the MJO was in Phase 1 for a record 19 consecutive days.

In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 60%. The probability of New York City's receiving 50" or more precipitation this year is approximately 54%.

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6 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Great setup for a slow moving 2-3 foot snowstorm today. Classic Miller B with strong blocking.

Just west of Raritan Bay here, did not see much heavy rain at all. If this had been snow it would have been another instance where I wasn't seeing much but people here would be telling me I'm wrong....

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4 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Only a few hundreths of an inch of rain here, and I'm only slightly west of NYC. The main rain did not get too far west as expected. Would have been horrible if it was winter and we were just missing out on a big snowstorm.

Pretty much par for the course around here....only my area manages to miss by being too far east sometimes too. Not a big fan of rain or wind so don't care, and just wish this system would go away already. I was outside with a contractor today and my hands got cold like it was late Nov....

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Next 8 days are averaging 59degs., or about 2degs. AN.  (used 60/50 for today)

Month to date is +2.6[63.0].       Should be near +2.3[61.1] by the 17th.

54.3* here at 6am.    57.2 by 9am, with more sun than clouds.     71.4* by 4pm! -stayed sunny and breezy all day.

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16 hours ago, Cfa said:

On the ferry back to LI and it’s rocking back and forth almost violently at times, just enough for things to fall off tables and make standing/walking difficult. My view out of the window is alternating between 100% ocean and 100% sky. It feels like I’m in the Bering Sea. Kind of scary.

Long Islands downfall was never allowing a bridge (or two) to be built.

 

Now, with the NYC traffic surge, there is simply no easy way off the island.

Draw a line at the Meadowbrook...pick an east-west highway and sit in miles of traffic to get to an ancient bridge in Queens.

Or...that ferry :)

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11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

models did poorly on this storm-Tue night they had the big rains today-instead we get the rains yesterday and today is cloudy to partly cloudy....

Models struggled with forecasts for this storm from the start. It could only get so far west with such a major storm over the Plains. Not much spacing between the two storms.
 

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Maybe a shower and some sprinkles in my opinion. It’s sunny in Manhattan 

I'm thinking not much even here and I'm 60 miles northeast of NYC....New haven and eastern end of LI may get some moderate rains.    Big bust in Boston too-models had 3-6 inches-nothing even close to that will actually happen

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Maybe a shower and some sprinkles in my opinion. It’s sunny in Manhattan 

Yeah, it's a beautiful day so far, brilliant sunshine in lower Manhattan,  view from world trade is partly cloudy to mostly clear all around.

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1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Long Islands downfall was never allowing a bridge (or two) to be built.

 

Now, with the NYC traffic surge, there is simply no easy way off the island.

Draw a line at the Meadowbrook...pick an east-west highway and sit in miles of traffic to get to an ancient bridge in Queens.

Or...that ferry :)

I 100% agree, it’s really a chore getting off and onto Long Island. I’m from Queens so I was already used to the annoyance of reaching the mainland but now it’s 2x worse, I never realized how horrible the LIE was prior to living here, those 40-50 extra miles can add 2+ hours to your travel time, it’s a nightmare. I don't see myself staying here. Traffic on I-95 in NJ/CT is child’s play compared to I-495.

Adding insult to injury, William Floyd Pkwy and I-91 are almost perfectly aligned, it makes no sense why there isn’t a LI Sound crossing. The ferry is expensive, but I’ll take 1 hour on rough seas over sitting in traffic for 3-5 hours in the rain.

There’s no way that ferry will be running later on today though, yesterday was bad enough.

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