Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The blocking high looks like it will prevent this from coming enough west to give the area alot of rain. a little bit like the big halloween storm back in the 90's. (smaller version but similar set up where the storm stalled for days and brought high surf, wind etc but not much rain) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Check the Euro. What does it show ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Check the Euro. interesting-it has a couple of areas of rain well west of the storm...one of NYC and then another later on over Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: a little bit like the big halloween storm back in the 90's. (smaller version but similar set up where the storm stalled for days and brought high surf, wind etc but not much rain) The biggest impact from this storm will be erosion. We made it through last winter without even a moderate nor’easter. So area beaches will loose allot of sand that has built up. This will be in addition to some minor erosion that occurred with the last few hurricane swells. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Wasn’t expecting to see the sun today, but it’s out. 72 now, low was 68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 CFSv2 actually shows either (weekly averages) Normal 500mb Heights or BN Heights all the way into Jan., for us. This is a rarity, wonder what it sees? Which analog periods is it using --- of course we do not know. Any ideas and opinions? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Summer may try to make a return later in October if the Euro is correct about the super typhoon recurve impacts. If it's AN then it's probably correct. Maybe we aren't done with 90s after all. How incredible would that be to see past mid October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 12Z Euro is an absolute drencher Tues night - Friday, with winds over 50 MPH for much of LI Thu-Fri. This run is showing 2-4" for the city and 7-10"+ for parts of SE New England. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: 12Z Euro is an absolute drencher Tues night - Friday, with winds over 50 MPH for much of LI Thu-Fri. This run is showing 2-4" for the city and 7-10"+ for parts of SE New England. Oh boy sounds like my flight will be delayed for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 15 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 12Z Euro is an absolute drencher Tues night - Friday, with winds over 50 MPH for much of LI Thu-Fri. This run is showing 2-4" for the city and 7-10"+ for parts of SE New England. crazy run-why so much precip so far west of the low??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 81 imby... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: crazy run-why so much precip so far west of the low??? I think the low interacts with the trough which helps expand the precip field. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: crazy run-why so much precip so far west of the low??? The upper low offshore phases w/ the tail end of the trof approaching us now; whole thing is cut off and the warm sector gets wrapped around its north side. So it does make some sense with the big block (of sorts) in eastern Canada. NHC has a 30% chance for subtropical development w/ this system on the 5-day outlook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 7, 2019 Author Share Posted October 7, 2019 The 12z Euro gives the entire NYC metro some much needed rain with some areas possibly picking up to much of a good thing especially as you head further east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Didn't take long to get back into the 80s, 82 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 7, 2019 Author Share Posted October 7, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 yet another warm seclusion 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Laughable how different this run is vs yesterday. Must be all those nutty teleconnection shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Eps is similar according to the SNE thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Man if this was in January we'd be going crazy with these massive shifts inside 100 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 7, 2019 Author Share Posted October 7, 2019 Just a summer temp recap here. May: 2 days 90+ temps June: 4 days 90+ temps July: 18 days 90+ temps August: 8 days 90+ temps September: 3 days 90+ temps October: 1 day 90+ temps Total: 36 days 90+ temps 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 7, 2019 Author Share Posted October 7, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Man if this was in January we'd be going crazy with these massive shifts inside 100 hours. Major snowstorm for the midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 This has to be one of the oddest looking cutoff lows in a while. Notice how high the 500 mb heights are when the low first closes off. Can’t remember the last time there was a low closing off over our area at close to 580 dm. This unusual setup may be part of the reason the models have been so volatile from run to run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 7, 2019 Author Share Posted October 7, 2019 It looks to me like the 18z GFS made a move towards the Euro rainfall wise, just not quite to the same extent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Warm day with an 80°/68° temp split...Temps will be dropping off soon with cold front passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Line of heavy showers popped up out of no where just to the west of NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 7, 2019 Author Share Posted October 7, 2019 https://www.nymetroweather.com/2019/10/07/pm-briefing-coastal-storm-trends-closer-to-the-coast-this-week/?fbclid=IwAR2tMgzqyRv7aSEiegPEZ1rGverrf2hTh-FdYdp_rvcZLuaGOMN-3RuIxgU 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 1 hour ago, doncat said: Warm day with an 80°/68° temp split...Temps will be dropping off soon with cold front passage. There’s a torrential downpour in the vicinity of Yonkers and Mount Vernon, NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 1 hour ago, doncat said: Warm day with an 80°/68° temp split...Temps will be dropping off soon with cold front passage. Wow.. Barely made it to 60° here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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