the_other_guy Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 7am: 39F. Coldest day of the season thus far. What an extreme week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 38 in Chester 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Nice rainy pattern on the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 It would be nice if the Euro is correct about the stalled front merging with a coastal storm this week. Rain amounts like this would go a long way toward ending the drought conditions around here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 37 this morning...wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Drought conditions? If you go through a real drought here: when they shut off fountains, when firework displays are stopped, when lawn watering is rationed or stopped, when a Pope lands and it starts raining and he starts sprinkling his hands with glee... You would never call a month of somewhat dry weather drought conditions. Droughts like 1995 will come again. Then you will see how extreme drought conditions are 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 From 95 degrees to frost in 3 days 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Low of 43 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 4 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Drought conditions? If you go through a real drought here: when they shut off fountains, when firework displays are stopped, when lawn watering is rationed or stopped, when a Pope lands and it starts raining and he starts sprinkling his hands with glee... You would never call a month of somewhat dry weather drought conditions. Droughts like 1995 will come again. Then you will see how extreme drought conditions are This was the driest September on record for Islip on Long Island. Our entire area was added to abnormally dry on the last few drought monitor updates. It was the the northeast extension of the flash drought which enveloped the East over the last month. Pockets of extreme drought developed over the Southeast this week. The drought coupled with the warming trend allowed for so many October all-time record highs across the East this week. It was mostly a surface layer event around here affecting the vegetation and soil moisture. Luckily, we have not experienced sustained more extreme drought conditions here since the mid 1990’s into early 2000’s. Those were more serious and dropped the water supply levels to the point were usage restrictions were necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 44°F low here, already rising through the 50’s though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: It would be nice if the Euro is correct about the stalled front merging with a coastal storm this week. Rain amounts like this would go a long way toward ending the drought conditions around here. Id count on it - we're overdue for a deluge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 45 in Central Park this morning...this is no were near what we have seen this time of the year... Coldest October days to start the month since 1960... 39 on 10/01/1992 38 on 10/02/1974 38 on 10/03/1974 39 on 10/04/1987 38 on 10/05/1965 38 on 10/06/1964 39 on 10/07/1999 37 on 10/08/1988 39 on 10/08/1964 39 on 10/08/2001 37 on 10/09/1988 38 on 10/08/2000 39 on 10/08/1978 36 on 10/10/2000 37 on 10/10/1979 38 on 10/10/1964 34 on 10/11/1964 37 on 10/11/1979 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 First 60+ degree temperature drop at SMQ in under 72 hours during October. Although the record only goes back to 1999, this drop probably couldn’t be matched over a longer period. Stations around the region with much longer periods of record experienced their all-time 24 hr October temperature drops this week. The high a few days ago at SMQ was 95 between hours with the low today of 33. So an actual drop of 62 degrees. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 First frost of the season here this morning with a low of 33. Average first frost IMBY is 10/17, so despite the warmth it’s on the earlier side this year. Average first freeze is 10/25, we shall see about that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 44 minutes ago, uncle W said: 45 in Central Park this morning...this is no were near what we have seen this time of the year... Coldest October days to start the month since 1960... 39 on 10/01/1992 38 on 10/02/1974 38 on 10/03/1974 39 on 10/04/1987 38 on 10/05/1965 38 on 10/06/1964 39 on 10/07/1999 37 on 10/08/1988 39 on 10/08/1964 39 on 10/08/2001 37 on 10/09/1988 38 on 10/08/2000 39 on 10/08/1978 36 on 10/10/2000 37 on 10/10/1979 38 on 10/10/1964 34 on 10/11/1964 37 on 10/11/1979 Yes, I agree. The cool down is unimpressive. Only when juxtaposed with the recent week's heat does it seem more dramatic; however, average first frosts are nearing for most of NNJ in suburbia. As far as drought, my local area is still fine, due the excessive rains we received this past summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Yes, I agree. The cool down is unimpressive. Only when juxtaposed with the recent week's heat does it seem more dramatic; however, average first frosts are nearing for most of NNJ in suburbia. As far as drought, my local area is still fine, due the excessive rains we received this past summer. Same here...no signs of drought. With 18.50" for jja and 2.14" in Sept and 0.60" this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 3 hours ago, bluewave said: It would be nice if the Euro is correct about the stalled front merging with a coastal storm this week. Rain amounts like this would go a long way toward ending the drought conditions around here. The last few days all forecasts have been talking about spectacular weather tuesday through the rest of next week. Upper 60s and sunny, some of the nicest weather of the year. What a change to go from that, to rain all week? These models do a terrible job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 We are not in a drought. We get a dry month and people throw drought around like it’s the Dust Bowl. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 I laugh when I here the word drought now...anyone who lived through the mid 1960's drought will agree with me...1962 was a pretty dry year...1963 almost set the record for the least amount of annual precipitation if not for a late December snowstorm...1964 was drier and broke the record for the driest year...then in 1965 the record was destroyed by a lot...the first eight months of 1966 were dry climaxing with the driest summer on record...There was a drought busting deluge in September 1966 and not for a few set backs it has not come close to that drought... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 1 minute ago, uncle W said: I laugh when I here the word drought now...anyone who lived through the mid 1960's drought will agree with me...1962 was a pretty dry year...1963 almost set the record for the least amount of annual precipitation if not for a late December snowstorm...1964 was drier and broke the record for the driest year...then in 1965 the record was destroyed by a lot...the first eight months of 1966 were dry climaxing with the driest summer on record...There was a drought busting deluge in September 1966 and not for a few set backs it has not come close to that drought... Completely agree. While I didn’t live through that I have read about it and your posts about it over the years. With a dry spell now called a flash drought that makes it that much more dramatic, kinda like when the term Polar Vortex became popular IMO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 30° for a low here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: The last few days all forecasts have been talking about spectacular weather tuesday through the rest of next week. Upper 60s and sunny, some of the nicest weather of the year. What a change to go from that, to rain all week? These models do a terrible job. This is what happens with such extreme wavelength changes over a short period of time. Just look at the volatility in the PNA since the end of September. The models can only do so much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is what happens with such extreme wavelength changes over a short period of time. Just look at the volatility in the PNA since the end of September. The models can only do so much. That's a huge pna rise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: That's a huge pna rise I can’t remember such extreme PNA swings this time of year before. So it’s no surprise that the models will be showing big run to run changes with storm details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 It does look like the 12z GFS wants to hook up the front with the ocean storm but doesn't bring precipitation as far west as the Euro but it may be heading that way in future runs. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eco94 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 4 hours ago, bluewave said: This was the driest September on record for Islip on Long Island. Our entire area was added to abnormally on the last few drought monitor updates. It was the the northeast extension of the flash drought which enveloped the East over the last month. Pockets of extreme drought developed over the Southeast this week. The drought coupled with the warming trend allowed for so many October all-time record highs across the East this week. It was mostly a surface layer event around here affecting the vegetation and soil moisture. Luckily, we have not experienced sustained more extreme drought conditions here since the mid 1990’s into early 2000’s. Those were more serious and dropped the water supply levels to the point were usage restrictions were necessary. My concerns about the flash drought- and I'm near JFK- were in regards to vegetation. for everyone dismissing that, it's really important, too. Luckily most young trees seemed to make it through this one, and more rain this week is extremely welcome too. Just because it didn't affect the water supply doesn't mean it was/is something to shake off- I'm still pretty concerned about the tree canopy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 40 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: It does look like the 12z GFS wants to hook up the front with the ocean storm but doesn't bring precipitation as far west as the Euro but it may be heading that way in future runs. We'll see. It certainly looks to be heading that way. A deluge would be fitting after a bone dry month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It certainly looks to be heading that way. A deluge would be fitting after a bone dry month. Eventually the pendulum has to swing the other way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 A little further down the road. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now