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October 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Drought conditions?

If you go through a real drought here: when they shut off fountains, when firework displays are stopped, when lawn watering is rationed or stopped, when a Pope lands and it starts raining and he starts sprinkling his hands with glee...

 

You would never call a month of somewhat dry weather drought conditions.

Droughts like 1995 will come again. Then you will see how extreme drought conditions are

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4 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Drought conditions?

If you go through a real drought here: when they shut off fountains, when firework displays are stopped, when lawn watering is rationed or stopped, when a Pope lands and it starts raining and he starts sprinkling his hands with glee...

 

You would never call a month of somewhat dry weather drought conditions.

Droughts like 1995 will come again. Then you will see how extreme drought conditions are

This was the driest September on record for Islip on Long Island. Our entire area was added to abnormally dry on the last few drought monitor updates. It was the the northeast extension of the flash drought which enveloped the East over the last month. Pockets of extreme drought developed over the Southeast this week. The drought coupled with the  warming trend allowed for so many October all-time record highs across the East this week. 

It was mostly a surface layer event around here affecting the vegetation and soil moisture. Luckily, we have not experienced sustained more extreme drought conditions here since the mid 1990’s into early 2000’s. Those were more serious and dropped the water supply levels to the point were usage restrictions were necessary. 
 

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It would be nice if the Euro is correct about the stalled front merging with a coastal storm this week. Rain amounts like this would go a long way toward ending the drought conditions around here. 
 

324CD800-B621-4197-AA30-91EE733A9160.thumb.png.510cdd4466377e4116721407cb234f51.png

 

Id count on it - we're overdue for a deluge 

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45 in Central Park this morning...this is no were near what we have seen this time of the year...

Coldest October days to start the month since 1960...

39 on 10/01/1992

38 on 10/02/1974

38 on 10/03/1974

39 on 10/04/1987

38 on 10/05/1965

38 on 10/06/1964

39 on 10/07/1999

37 on 10/08/1988

39 on 10/08/1964

39 on 10/08/2001

37 on 10/09/1988

38 on 10/08/2000

39 on 10/08/1978

36 on 10/10/2000

37 on 10/10/1979

38 on 10/10/1964

34 on 10/11/1964

37 on 10/11/1979

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First 60+ degree temperature drop at SMQ in under 72 hours during October. Although the record only goes back to 1999, this drop probably couldn’t be matched over a longer period. Stations around the region  with much longer periods of record experienced their all-time 24 hr October temperature drops this week. The high a few days ago at SMQ was 95 between hours with the low today of 33. So an actual drop of 62 degrees.

B2EF9B42-4B8F-4A76-B603-AE5CF8B86D5E.png.ae6d73f3458748be5bb55f1a7c41b693.png

 

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44 minutes ago, uncle W said:

45 in Central Park this morning...this is no were near what we have seen this time of the year...

Coldest October days to start the month since 1960...

39 on 10/01/1992

38 on 10/02/1974

38 on 10/03/1974

39 on 10/04/1987

38 on 10/05/1965

38 on 10/06/1964

39 on 10/07/1999

37 on 10/08/1988

39 on 10/08/1964

39 on 10/08/2001

37 on 10/09/1988

38 on 10/08/2000

39 on 10/08/1978

36 on 10/10/2000

37 on 10/10/1979

38 on 10/10/1964

34 on 10/11/1964

37 on 10/11/1979

 

 

Yes, I agree. The cool down is unimpressive. Only when juxtaposed with the recent week's heat does it seem more dramatic; however, average first frosts are nearing for most of NNJ in suburbia.

As far as drought, my local area is still fine, due the excessive rains we received this past summer.

 

image.thumb.png.6773b423cb94115ea94f4f02ff77766b.png

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4 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Yes, I agree. The cool down is unimpressive. Only when juxtaposed with the recent week's heat does it seem more dramatic; however, average first frosts are nearing for most of NNJ in suburbia.

As far as drought, my local area is still fine, due the excessive rains we received this past summer.

 

image.thumb.png.6773b423cb94115ea94f4f02ff77766b.png

Same here...no signs of drought. With 18.50" for jja  and 2.14" in Sept and 0.60" this month.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It would be nice if the Euro is correct about the stalled front merging with a coastal storm this week. Rain amounts like this would go a long way toward ending the drought conditions around here. 
 

324CD800-B621-4197-AA30-91EE733A9160.thumb.png.510cdd4466377e4116721407cb234f51.png

 

The last few days all forecasts have been talking about spectacular weather tuesday through the rest of next week. Upper 60s and sunny, some of the nicest weather of the year. What a change to go from that, to rain all week? These models do a terrible job.

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I laugh when I here the word drought now...anyone who lived through the mid 1960's drought will agree with me...1962 was a pretty dry year...1963 almost set the record for the least amount of annual precipitation if not for a late December snowstorm...1964 was drier and broke the record for the driest year...then in 1965 the record was destroyed by a lot...the first eight months of 1966 were dry climaxing with the driest summer on record...There was a drought busting deluge in September 1966 and not for a few set backs it has not come close to that drought...

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1 minute ago, uncle W said:

I laugh when I here the word drought now...anyone who lived through the mid 1960's drought will agree with me...1962 was a pretty dry year...1963 almost set the record for the least amount of annual precipitation if not for a late December snowstorm...1964 was drier and broke the record for the driest year...then in 1965 the record was destroyed by a lot...the first eight months of 1966 were dry climaxing with the driest summer on record...There was a drought busting deluge in September 1966 and not for a few set backs it has not come close to that drought...

Completely agree. While I didn’t live through that I have read about it and your posts about it over the years. With a dry spell now called a flash drought  that makes it that much more dramatic, kinda like when the term Polar Vortex became popular IMO 

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

The last few days all forecasts have been talking about spectacular weather tuesday through the rest of next week. Upper 60s and sunny, some of the nicest weather of the year. What a change to go from that, to rain all week? These models do a terrible job.

This is what happens with such extreme wavelength changes over a short period of time. Just look at the volatility in the PNA since the end of September. The models can only do so much.

BFB9EF3F-AEB9-44CF-A1F1-9F6BB553E0A0.thumb.gif.f9037721da7af9de214876c01f9c1ffd.gif

 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was the driest September on record for Islip on Long Island. Our entire area was added to abnormally on the last few drought monitor updates. It was the the northeast extension of the flash drought which enveloped the East over the last month. Pockets of extreme drought developed over the Southeast this week. The drought coupled with the  warming trend allowed for so many October all-time record highs across the East this week. 

It was mostly a surface layer event around here affecting the vegetation and soil moisture. Luckily, we have not experienced sustained more extreme drought conditions here since the mid 1990’s into early 2000’s. Those were more serious and dropped the water supply levels to the point were usage restrictions were necessary. 
 

 

My concerns about the flash drought- and I'm near JFK- were in regards to vegetation.  for everyone dismissing that, it's really important, too. Luckily most young trees seemed to make it through this one, and more rain this week is extremely  welcome too. Just because it didn't affect the water supply doesn't mean it was/is something to shake off- I'm still pretty concerned about the tree canopy.

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40 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

It does look like the 12z GFS wants to hook up the front with the ocean storm but doesn't bring precipitation as far west as the Euro but it may be heading that way in future runs. We'll see.

It certainly looks to be heading that way. A deluge would be fitting after a bone dry month. 

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