Rtd208 Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: just your typical 3 to 4SD pwats Models coming close to 2.00” PWATS all the way up into New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 Thursday into early Friday should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 2.06" in springfield from the last event. 6.64" for the month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 When we flip we flip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 I think there is a decent chance we will be under Flood Watches and Wind Advisories for Thursday/Friday. Especially with the recent heavier rains we have had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 19 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I think there is a decent chance we will be under Flood Watches and Wind Advisories for Thursday/Friday. Especially with the recent heavier rains we have had. Winds will bring down allot of leaves around the coast as we are heading into peak color. So FFW are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 On 10/22/2019 at 5:32 PM, bluewave said: We are back to the default wet pattern after the 2nd driest month of the 2010’s. Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Mean 3.60 3.92 4.46 3.89 4.82 4.35 4.67 5.11 3.68 3.94 3.48 4.47 49.59 Max 5.23 2015 6.69 2010 10.69 2010 7.85 2014 8.00 2013 10.10 2013 7.45 2018 18.95 2011 9.39 2011 6.09 2011 7.62 2018 6.51 2018 72.81 2011 Min 2.08 2010 1.37 2012 0.96 2012 1.31 2013 1.86 2015 2.20 2010 2.60 2010 1.97 2016 0.95 2019 0.36 2013 1.58 2017 2.21 2017 38.5 2010 2.08 6.69 10.69 2.99 3.01 2.20 2.60 4.14 3.67 4.91 2.15 4.24 49.37 2011 4.93 3.47 6.19 5.35 5.11 3.25 3.03 18.95 9.39 6.09 3.05 4.00 72.81 2012 3.23 1.37 0.96 3.56 5.38 2.97 4.21 2.91 4.39 2.92 1.81 4.80 38.51 2013 2.76 4.25 2.90 1.31 8.00 10.10 2.84 2.85 2.95 0.36 3.15 4.85 46.32 2014 2.79 5.48 3.67 7.85 4.37 4.26 5.59 2.25 1.21 5.77 4.51 6.04 53.79 2015 5.23 2.04 4.72 2.08 1.86 4.79 3.98 2.35 3.28 3.91 2.01 4.72 40.97 2016 4.41 4.40 1.17 1.61 3.75 2.60 7.02 1.97 2.79 4.15 5.41 2.89 42.17 2017 4.83 2.48 5.25 3.84 6.38 4.76 4.19 3.34 2.00 4.18 1.58 2.21 45.04 2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55 2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 6.82 5.46 5.77 3.70 0.95 3.51 M M 41.35 depending on how this next event plays out it could be the wettest month since... last november 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 49 minutes ago, forkyfork said: depending on how this next event plays out it could be the wettest month since... last november HPN went from 2nd driest September to 8th wettest October so far. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2009 0.60 0 2 2019 0.72 0 3 2014 0.75 2 4 1948 1.13 0 5 1986 1.15 0 6 1990 1.23 0 7 1964 1.37 0 8 2013 1.38 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2005 15.66 0 2 1955 13.85 0 3 1983 10.20 0 4 1989 9.81 0 5 1995 8.27 0 6 1996 8.12 0 7 2006 7.90 0 8 2019 7.30 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Warmer than normal weather continued today in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Generally warmer than normal conditions will continue through the end of the month. However, out west, record low temperatures were set in parts of Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming. Some of the records were the lowest temperatures recorded during October. Records included: Casper, WY: -2° (old record: 7°, 1991); Laramie, WY: -10° (old record: 0°, 1996); Ogden, UT: 18° (old record: 28°, 2011) ***New October Record***; and, Pocatello, ID: 7° (old record: 16°, 1991) ***Tied October record*** Casper's -4° reading yesterday was the lowest temperature on record there for October. Some of this cooler air will move into the region on Thursday night or Friday, possibly preceded by a strong squall line. This initial push of cooler air will likely yield to milder conditions after a few days. An even stronger push of cold air could occur during the second week of November. After mid-month, a prolonged period of above and occasionally much above normal temperatures could develop. Uncertainty about the second half of November has increased in recent days. Nevertheless, the base case remains a warmer than normal November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.43°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was -8.00 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.384. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On October 27, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.897 (RMM). The October 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.844. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 59.8°. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is currently near 100%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 After Halloween rainstorm looks rather dry maybe a bit cooler for a while. Today was a nice day though kinda cloudy it really felt nice. Right now it’s 56 and cloudy waiting for the light rains than heavier rains Wednesday into Thursday with some gusty winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 The last 3 days of October are averaging 63degs., or about 11degs. AN. Month to date is +2.5[59.8]. October should end near +3.2[60.1]. 54.8* here at 6am. The first 5 days of November are averaging 50/51degs., or just Normal. As a curiosity, only 39% of the days so far this year have been BN. This is better than Tampa, Florida's 18%. They are also completing their 18th straight AN month. We are 7 AN/3 BN so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 NWS Mt.Holly doesn't seem to enthused about Thursday/Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Record strong Santa Ana winds out west and expansive forest fires throughout California! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 6 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said: After Halloween rainstorm looks rather dry maybe a bit cooler for a while. Today was a nice day though kinda cloudy it really felt nice. Right now it’s 56 and cloudy waiting for the light rains than heavier rains Wednesday into Thursday with some gusty winds looks like we may luck on Halloween with a break in the showers in the evening (main line comes overnight and WAA showers are in the morning/ early afternoon) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: NWS Mt.Holly doesn't seem to enthused about Thursday/Friday. I think they're underplaying the potential. Temps will be in the low 70s with near 60 dews and near record PWATs so do think we'll see strong momentum transfer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: I think they're underplaying the potential. Temps will be in the low 70s with near 60 dews and near record PWATs so do think we'll see strong momentum transfer. I agree. I think they are underplaying both the heavy rain and wind potential. They are probably humping the GFS like usual which keeps most of the heavy rain to our west currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 27 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I agree. I think they are underplaying both the heavy rain and wind potential. They are probably humping the GFS like usual which keeps most of the heavy rain to our west currently. I often wonder when it's an overnight event if they downplay due to it being a lower impact time of day.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Record strong Santa Ana winds out west and expansive forest fires throughout California! Been a pretty crazy pattern nationwide. It’s currently 18F w heavy snow at DEN. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 25 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Been a pretty crazy pattern nationwide. It’s currently 18F w heavy snow at DEN. I saw that the area is seeing a string of record low maximums- some have highs in the single digits? Thats crazy for late October, even out there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 58 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I agree. I think they are underplaying both the heavy rain and wind potential. They are probably humping the GFS like usual which keeps most of the heavy rain to our west currently. Why do they do that when they know it's a lower score model? I'd say they're too cheap to pay for the Euro, but considering that the Euro's info is released on many sites, why bother even using the GFS- for anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: I think they're underplaying the potential. Temps will be in the low 70s with near 60 dews and near record PWATs so do think we'll see strong momentum transfer. I'd like to see a 70 high on Friday just to say we had a high temp of 70 in November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'd like to see a 70 high on Friday just to say we had a high temp of 70 in November Don't worry we will before the month ends, I'm willing to bet the house on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 35 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Been a pretty crazy pattern nationwide. It’s currently 18F w heavy snow at DEN. Some mets are saying whatever happens in the winter, whether warm or very cold will feature extreme events, with anomalous low pressure and deep troughs. Of course the areas to be hit is yet to be determined. However, based on the recent change in sensible weather in the NE, high precip, high wind events and national headlines regarding storms you think there is some fact to these ideas actually becoming reality in the period December to March. Do you think we have an active winter in the East ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Don't worry we will before the month ends, I'm willing to bet the house on that. I have a little guide I use to indicate what the highest temps to expect are each month: October 80s November 70s December 60s January 50s February 60s March 70s April 80s May-September 90s plus It works out more often than not. I consider the first 80 the beginning of the warm season and the last 80 the end of it. I dont think we have 4 seasons anymore- we have a warm season and a cold season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Wonder what time everything starts on Thursday. I've got a 4 year old who's been waiting over a year to go trick or treating. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Just now, TriPol said: Wonder what time everything starts on Thursday. I've got a 4 year old who's been waiting over a year to go trick or treating. Didn't go last year? There should be a lull during the early evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: Didn't go last year? There should be a lull during the early evening hours. He did. Which is why he wants to go so badly this year. I think we're starting around 5:30 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, TriPol said: He did. Which is why he wants to go so badly this year. I think we're starting around 5:30 or so. that's usually when it starts around here. Models showing a break in the precip late day and evening, let's hope that holds....I have 2 10 year olds- it's never rained for them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 I always forget that ToT is a real thing folks do. Been at least 20 years since I've had anyone come around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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