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October 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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Last 4 days of October keeping an average near 62degs., or about 9degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.3[59.9].         October should end near  +3.2[60.1]. 

The first 4 days of November are averaging near 51degs., or just about Normal.

58.1* here at 6am.

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No surprise that the models are correcting warmer for Halloween from earlier forecasts. Looks like the warm spots can make it to 70 later on the 31st into early on  the 1st. Low topped squall potential  with gusty winds and heavy downpours early on the 1st. The SE Ridge continues to overperform.

 

04898EAD-1723-44DD-A78C-F1993C1FF594.thumb.png.3718ca556c6f8c56fa598b40d0bf8651.png

 

 

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CFSv2 is BN for 6 weeks straight once the colder air gets here, that is until mid-December.       I hope the BN is not BS in disguise.

Still w/o any skill, but getting there:        The above conclusion is from an other site.

CFSv2.NaT2m.20191028.201911.gif

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  On 10/28/2019 at 11:58 AM, bluewave said:

No surprise that the models are correcting warmer for Halloween from earlier forecasts. Looks like the warm spots can make it to 70 later on the 31st into early on  the 1st. Low topped squall potential  with gusty winds and heavy downpours early on the 1st. The SE Ridge continues to overperform.

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Delayed but not denied though as the -EPO pattern finally delivers cooler conditions post Halloween. 

First real widespread freeze threat possible this weekend. 

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  On 10/28/2019 at 2:30 PM, JerseyWx said:

Had a wedding to go to yesterday and I thought it would be a total bust.  Turned out that it cleared up early by 4:30, and not only did the rain stop, but the sun came out.  Made for some nice photographs with the city and Freedom Tower in the background.

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Eagle rock?

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This weather has been great, aside from the few recent washouts.

Haven't even put my heat on yet.

After a cool down the first week or November or so, above normal temps look to return by mid-month.

Would be nice if we could hold onto those 60's for highs until Thanksgiving.

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  On 10/28/2019 at 2:33 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Delayed but not denied though as the -EPO pattern finally delivers cooler conditions post Halloween. 

First real widespread freeze threat possible this weekend. 

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We shall see. A period of colder weather yes. But the -PNA and SE ridge pattern has been so damn consistent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the cold scaled back. Plus cold/snow in November has really proven to be a bad thing for the winter. 

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  On 10/28/2019 at 2:59 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We shall see. A period of colder weather yes. But the -PNA and SE ridge pattern has been so damn consistent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the cold scaled back. Plus cold/snow in November has really proven to be a bad thing for the winter. 

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Other than a short period from this weekend to mid next week the 00z ECMWF was a torch. 

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  On 10/28/2019 at 2:33 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Delayed but not denied though as the -EPO pattern finally delivers cooler conditions post Halloween. 

First real widespread freeze threat possible this weekend. 

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I have tomatoes, peppers and pole lima beans that are still going strong in my garden. Yeah, that will be coming to an end this weekend. If we don't get a freeze to kill them off saturday night, we certainly will sunday night.

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  On 10/28/2019 at 2:59 PM, NJwx85 said:

This weather has been great, aside from the few recent washouts.

Haven't even put my heat on yet.

After a cool down the first week or November or so, above normal temps look to return by mid-month.

Would be nice if we could hold onto those 60's for highs until Thanksgiving.

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Really? 

You must like your house mighty cold up there in Mahwah then. I’m right across the river and we have had plenty of mornings in the 40s and 50s and that central heat is blasting when I wake up

Even this morning, when it was 50, it was on.

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  On 10/28/2019 at 2:24 PM, CIK62 said:

CFSv2 is BN for 6 weeks straight once the colder air gets here, that is until mid-December.       I hope the BN is not BS in disguise.

Still w/o any skill, but getting there:        The above conclusion is from an other site.

CFSv2.NaT2m.20191028.201911.gif

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Ignoring the low skill areas, this would imply that the CFS sees a +PNA, correct? Or do the higher anomalies in Alaska indicate that the ridge will be too far west?

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