bluewave Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 The GFS has really been struggling with its cold bias recently. New run Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Some major changes out west, particularly the EPO should eventually give us cooler weather however it'll dump the cold west first so we'll have to wait until November for it to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 41F at 7am Colder than anticipated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 47 and sunny going up to 64 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 37.8 in Syosset and 37.4 in Muttontown this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 38 in Chester. Spotted a nice 6-pt strolling through the yard. The rut is on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 38 here in Suffolk this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: 38 here in Suffolk this morning I saw FOK was below freezing again. The skies were crystal clear this morning! Makes the fall foliage look extra brilliant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: I saw FOK was below freezing again. The skies were crystal clear this morning! Makes the fall foliage look extra brilliant Yeah I saw 30 at 5am I bet they dropped to upper 20s this morning out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny_Weather Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Not looking forward to the winter months. September, October, November and December are actually proven to be the worst months for fatal car accidents in NY and I'm willing to gamble it's weather related since no one seems to know how to drive in rain or snow... Would rather see the thermometer stay at it's current 68°F outside temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Some major changes out west, particularly the EPO should eventually give us cooler weather however it'll dump the cold west first so we'll have to wait until November for it to arrive. Similar pattern to what we have been experiencing all year. Coldest departures stay out West.Then the cold modifies as it moves east. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 18 minutes ago, Johnny_Weather said: Not looking forward to the winter months. September, October, November and December are actually proven to be the worst months for fatal car accidents in NY and I'm willing to gamble it's weather related since no one seems to know how to drive in rain or snow... Would rather see the thermometer stay at it's current 68°F outside temps. September generally has nice weather. I bet many of those are pedestrian since all I hear about are hit and runs in the outer boros 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: Similar pattern to what we have been experiencing all year. Coldest departures stay out West.Then the cold modifies as it moves east. I remember reading about why this pattern is so stable. It has to do with oceans warming faster therefore the land areas near the oceans are more likely to be warmer than normal. High mountainous areas like the Rockies are more likely to be colder than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: September generally has nice weather. I bet many of those are pedestrian since all I hear about are hit and runs in the outer boros It's generally in the same places and the city ignores the complaints coming from people who live in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 What happened to late month warmup I’ve been hearing about? Another upper 60s day with glorious sunshine. Same tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I remember reading about why this pattern is so stable. It has to do with oceans warming faster therefore the land areas near the oceans are more likely to be warmer than normal. High mountainous areas like the Rockies are more likely to be colder than normal. A useful link concerning persistent patterns: https://news.rutgers.edu/more-persistent-weather-patterns-us-linked-arctic-warming/20180919#.XbGs3GZ7mUk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: A useful link concerning persistent patterns: https://news.rutgers.edu/more-persistent-weather-patterns-us-linked-arctic-warming/20180919#.XbGs3GZ7mUk Thanks, just what I was looking for to account for the rapid increase in 3"+ rainfall events, all the flooding in the middle of the country that seems to be happening yearly, as well as the wildfire epidemic in the West and the decrease of extreme Arctic outbreaks directly into the East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, psv88 said: What happened to late month warmup I’ve been hearing about? Another upper 60s day with glorious sunshine. Same tomorrow This is pretty warm for late October- I still haven't turned my heat on. Perfect weather actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: This is pretty warm for late October- I still haven't turned my heat on. Perfect weather actually. Halloween looks like 70s before we cool down. But 62-63 is where we should be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 NAM coming in weaker with Sunday's rain event-more of just a cold front as the main storm cuts even further west. - 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Halloween looks like 70s before we cool down. But 62-63 is where we should be Looks like frequent rainy periods though, so not a "clean" warm up. Yesterday and today are a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 On 10/20/2019 at 1:45 PM, Snow88 said: We saw this many times 2 winters ago. Jan 2016 was another one..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 on this date in 1960 NYC had a few wet snow flakes in the afternoon as low pressure was departing...way back in 1917 a storm brought 2 1/2 inches of rain... 1917... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/55296763 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1917-10-25/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1917-10-25/ed-1/seq-14/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1917-10-25/ed-1/seq-16/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Similar pattern to what we have been experiencing all year. Coldest departures stay out West.Then the cold modifies as it moves east. The cold is definitely out there vs. some other years where the entire country torches. Some of this cold will come east this winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The cold is definitely out there vs. some other years where the entire country torches. Some of this cold will come east this winter. i like that we've returned to a wet pattern 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Similar to this time last year, the jet stream is on steroids. 158KT at 250mb at GGW (Glasgow, MT) this morning is an all-time record there (going back to 1948). Riverton, WY came in 1KT shy of their highest observed 250mb wind speed at 12Z. Meanwhile, tomorrow's jet stream amplification in the Northeast is also likely to set at least monthly records as the Atlantic ridge flexes. GFS below: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 10 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Similar to this time last year, the jet stream is on steroids. 158KT at 250mb at GGW (Glasgow, MT) this morning is an all-time record there (going back to 1948). Riverton, WY came in 1KT shy of their highest observed 250mb wind speed at 12Z. Meanwhile, tomorrow's jet stream amplification in the Northeast is also likely to set at least monthly records as the Atlantic ridge flexes. GFS below: No good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 66 and full sun. Incredible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 39 this morning to 67 this afternoon. Not a fan of cold mornings, but I’ll take them as long as they’re followed by sunshine and warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 70 here. Where's all the cold air? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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