October 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Makes sense-water off the coast is well above normal and Arctic sea ice was below normal so can see a warm start to December as we've often see the past few years...

Probably not as warm as December 2015 because that was a big el nino, but maybe more like the "normal mild" Decembers we've been getting lately.

 

 

[Brian5671]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Probably not as warm as December 2015 because that was a big el nino, but maybe more like the "normal mild" Decembers we've been getting lately.

 

 

December '15 was a once a generation event.    I'd agree with part 2, mild, rainy and generally snowless +2 to +3 temps....

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of yesterday's rainstorm, cooler weather and gusty winds prevailed. Milder conditions will gradually return in coming days. However, a possible tropical cyclone could develop over the Bay of Campeche and make landfall in Louisiana and later bring clouds and at least some rain to the region early next week. If so, readings could be cooler than had previously been modeled.

The last week of October will likely start mild but end with a cool shot. The cool conditions increasingly appear likely to persist through the first week of November as the Arctic Oscillation goes negative for a time.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around October 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was +2.58 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.461.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Despite what might be a somewhat cooler than normal start to November, a warmer outcome still appears more likely than not.

On October 16, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.981 (RMM). The October 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.004.

In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 58.5°.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 70%.

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Makes sense-water off the coast is well above normal and Arctic sea ice was below normal so can see a warm start to December as we've often see the past few years...

I'm done playing the guessing game. We're getting never before seen configurations and past analogs are becoming less relevant.

Just look at the disastrous winter forecasts of last year. 

I guess based on what I've seen thus far, a Nina pattern with spurts of Atlantic blocking make the most sense but who knows at this point.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm done playing the guessing game. We're getting never before seen configurations and past analogs are becoming less relevant.

Just look at the disastrous winter forecasts of last year. 

I guess based on what I've seen thus far, a Nina pattern with spurts of Atlantic blocking make the most sense but who knows at this point.

Pretty spot on. There is no, new normal. The only thing that is sure is to expect the unexpected 

[BxEngine]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm done playing the guessing game. We're getting never before seen configurations and past analogs are becoming less relevant.

Just look at the disastrous winter forecasts of last year. 

I guess based on what I've seen thus far, a Nina pattern with spurts of Atlantic blocking make the most sense but who knows at this point.

 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days are averaging 57 degs., or about 3degs. AN.

Month to date is +2.4[61.5].         Should be near +2.6[60.3]. by the 26th.

51.4* here at 6am.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, BxEngine said:

 

Bc you know I'm right.

[NYCweatherNOW]

Nice fall day today. High of 59 or so, chilly. My landlord hasn’t turned on the heat yet and I have a newborn it’s kind of annoying and obnoxious of them like what are you going to save $1000? Cheap people!

[nycwinter]

1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Nice fall day today. High of 59 or so, chilly. My landlord hasn’t turned on the heat yet and I have a newborn it’s kind of annoying and obnoxious of them like what are you going to save $1000? Cheap people!

heat was turned on all last night whew need to have a fan on when i sleep...

[Yanksfan]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Bc you know I'm right.

In a way you are. Last winters bust was in large part of a decoupling of the pattern. In other words the pattern that was presented to us did not behave like it normally would in past analog years. That's a big red flag for me. Could it be the changing climate? Perhaps. Already there is confusion with the winter forecasts starting to come out. Some are calling for a front end winter, while others are going backloaded. All I know is we are starting to see more weather extremes occurring. What do I think is going to happen for our area this upcoming winter season? Who knows. To me any plausible scenario is on the table from a 1995/96 redux to an all out torch. At this point we should just wait another month and hope things become much clearer by then.

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Bc you know I'm right.

Making a prediction  for the upcoming winter in October is foolish. 

[bluewave]

You really wonder how this influence the tropical forcing pattern going forward since the rest of the Pacific is so different from 94-95.  Will the MJO avoid the Maritime Continent 4-5 phases? If it does, then what will the interaction with the other drivers look like in creating our sensible weather?
 

 

 

[weathermedic]

1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Nice fall day today. High of 59 or so, chilly. My landlord hasn’t turned on the heat yet and I have a newborn it’s kind of annoying and obnoxious of them like what are you going to save $1000? Cheap people!

NYC Heating Season Specifics

Heating season runs from Oct. 1 through May 31. Landlords are required to follow the temperature guidelines below:

•  From 6 a.m. to 10 p.m., the indoor temperature must be at least 68 degrees if the outside temperature falls below 55 degrees.
• The temperature must be at least 62 degrees between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m., regardless of outside temperature.

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Nice fall day today. High of 59 or so, chilly. My landlord hasn’t turned on the heat yet and I have a newborn it’s kind of annoying and obnoxious of them like what are you going to save $1000? Cheap people!

 

6 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

NYC Heating Season Specifics

Heating season runs from Oct. 1 through May 31. Landlords are required to follow the temperature guidelines below:

•  From 6 a.m. to 10 p.m., the indoor temperature must be at least 68 degrees if the outside temperature falls below 55 degrees.
• The temperature must be at least 62 degrees between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m., regardless of outside temperature.

Call 311 if the temp inside is below 68. That usually gets the LLs attention.  Can’t imagine waiting for temp to drop below 62 with a newborn, that’s just cruel for the baby. 

[Snowlover11]

Seems its more windy than at anytime last night

[frd]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You really wonder how this influence the tropical forcing pattern going forward since the rest of the Pacific is so different from 94-95.  Will the MJO avoid the Maritime Continent 4-5 phases? If it does, then what will the interaction with the other drivers look like in creating our sensible weather?

 

 

Seems like the PMM is a player too. But you are correct bluewave , there are so many significant players to consider and how they will interact with each other.  I am becoming more fascinated  every day with the effect of the solar min on the winter temps.   

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Nice fall day today. High of 59 or so, chilly. My landlord hasn’t turned on the heat yet and I have a newborn it’s kind of annoying and obnoxious of them like what are you going to save $1000? Cheap people!

Get a space heater.

Heat will most likely be on by November 1

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

NYC Heating Season Specifics

Heating season runs from Oct. 1 through May 31. Landlords are required to follow the temperature guidelines below:

•  From 6 a.m. to 10 p.m., the indoor temperature must be at least 68 degrees if the outside temperature falls below 55 degrees.
• The temperature must be at least 62 degrees between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m., regardless of outside temperature.

Wow they changed the rules since I lived in Brooklyn back in the 80s.  Back then it used to be that, beginning October 1, either the high had to be below 55 or the low had to be below 40, and if it didn't happen by the end of October, then it was mandatory to turn the heat on by November 1 regardless of temps.

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Making a prediction  for the upcoming winter in October is foolish. 

Tell that to every pro/amateur forecaster and all private weather services.

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Tell that to every pro/amateur forecaster and all private weather services.

$$$$

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, frd said:

Seems like the PMM is a player too. But you are correct bluewave , there are so many significant players to consider and how they will interact with each other.  I am becoming more fascinated  every day with the effect of the solar min on the winter temps.   

Yeah, the PMM increased further with the September update. All the seasonal models have another anomalously strong NP ridge this winter. But they disagree on the longitude of the strongest ridge axis. Makes a big difference for us if it is west based over the Aleutians or east based over NW Canada. Especially when it combines with whatever phase of the NAO we get.

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MModes/RealTime/pmm_current.pdf

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You really wonder how this influence the tropical forcing pattern going forward since the rest of the Pacific is so different from 94-95.  Will the MJO avoid the Maritime Continent 4-5 phases? If it does, then what will the interaction with the other drivers look like in creating our sensible weather?
 

 

 

Good luck to any model or met trying to forecast something 4-5 days out or more. Probably plenty of crazy last minute model shifts again as they try to sort out the dueling influences. 

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Making a prediction  for the upcoming winter in October is foolish. 

Most intelligent post in this thread

 

Wasnt it supposed to be 85F on Monday? 

What happened to that forecast from a week ago?

[frd]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the PMM increased further with the September update. All the seasonal models have another anomalously strong NP ridge this winter. But they disagree on the longitude of the strongest ridge axis. Makes a big difference for us if it is west based over the Aleutians or east based over NW Canada. Especially when it combines with whatever phase of the NAO we get.

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MModes/RealTime/pmm_current.pdf

Excellent link, thanks !  Hopefully this winter should not be boring. (  in a good way ) 

And, I really do like what I am seeing in the Pac, and the  NAO domain's  early signs are intriguing.  

[the_other_guy]

46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Get a space heater.

Heat will most likely be on by November 1

He doesnt have to. The law is on his side

[Tatamy]

12z NAM is continuing to show the further north track for the Sunday event.  Looking like a washout for many if it verifies.

[rclab]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Making a prediction  for the upcoming winter in October is foolish. 

Anthony, you can remove the “in October” from your sage sentence and use it ongoing. As always ..... 

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, frd said:

Excellent link, thanks !  Hopefully this winter should not be boring. (  in a good way ) 

And, I really do like what I am seeing in the Pac, and the  NAO domain's  early signs are intriguing.  

The record Pacific warming that began in 2013 has had a big impact on our weather patterns. The favored areas for cold have been the Upper Plains, Midwest, and Western Great Lakes. I think that is why the composite resembles several winter forecasts that have been released so far including the Weather Company and CPC. But you never really know for sure for each individual winter with all the volatility that we have seen.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

He doesnt have to. The law is on his side

Well it looks like until the high temp is less than 55, the heat wont be on during the day, but the heat has to be on at night at 62 degrees, regardless of overnight temps?

Back when I lived there, it had to be in the 30s at night for the heat to be turned on