bluewave Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Numerous October record breaking low pressures across New England. It was only 2 years ago that several records were set. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Doesn’t look terrible in my neighborhood. Lots of smaller branches down but nothing too bad. On my office’s street in Melville there’s a large branch down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Given the wind reports on the coast it must’ve been howling in Long Beach. Surprised there aren’t more power outages down there it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Given the wind reports on the coast it must’ve been howling in Long Beach. Surprised there aren’t more power outages down there it seems. Not many trees left in LB. I’m sure pre Sandy it would have been a different story. Incredible storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Not many trees left in LB. I’m sure pre Sandy it would have been a different story. Incredible storm! Pre-Sandy, Irene, Mar 2010 nor’easter. That 2.5 year period decimated any long standing trees there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Finally our first 1.00”+ areawide soaking in a single event since July 23rd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Upton says winds to 65 later, that’s dangerous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Numerous October record breaking low pressures across New England. It was only 2 years ago that several records were set. Boston's barometer bottomed out at 975.3 mb (28.80") and Concord's reached a minimum pressure of 973.0 mb (28.73"). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Plenty of volatility to this stormy pattern post super typhoon recurve. Continuation of a more Niña-like pattern next week. Big ridge north of Hawaii and fast Pacific jet. But that ridge is set to expand NE to Alaska turning the EPO negative day 8-10. -EPO In October is more Niño -like. So October may end with some colder than normal temperatures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Plenty of volatility to this stormy pattern post super typhoon recurve. Continuation of a more Niña-like pattern next week. Big ridge north of Hawaii and fast Pacific jet. But that ridge is set to expand NE to Alaska turning the EPO negative day 8-10. -EPO In October is more Niño -like. So October may end with some colder than normal temperatures. @bluewave do you see anything to be concerned about here with the latest PAC SSTs ? ( that is if you enjoy cold and snow in the East later in December ) Seems we are having some changes as we knew there would be. The warm pool has diminished somewhat , warmer anomalies near the Aleutian islands , cooling off the West Coast. Does this current set-up support a Se ridge and reinforces the High North of Hawaii? Or, is the weather pattern out there in flux as you mentioned going towards a -EPO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Seen some large trees down. Today is not very windy at all though. High wind warning was too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: @bluewave do you see anything to be concerned about here with the latest PAC SSTs ? ( that is if you enjoy cold and snow in the East later in December ) Seems we are having some changes as we knew there would be. The warm pool has diminished somewhat , warmer anomalies near the Aleutian islands , cooling off the West Coast. Does this current set-up support a Se ridge and reinforces the High North of Hawaii? Or, is the weather pattern out there in flux as you mentioned going towards a -EPO. That westward shift in the warmest SST departures in the NPAC has been happening over the last month. Looks like it’s just reflecting the more Niña-like pattern. The strong ridge from north of Hawaii to the Aleutians will produce that kind of SST pattern. It will be interesting to see how all the competing factors interact to produce the November pattern and beyond. This is the first time that Niño 1+2 and 3 were so cool with near record +IOD levels for this time of year. The other question is how long will the late October -EPO pattern last? Does it have some staying power or will the ridge pull back to the Aleutians? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see how all the competing factors interact to produce the November pattern and beyond. This is the first time that Niño 1-2 and 3 were so cool with near record +IOD levels for this time of year. The other question is how long the late October -EPO pattern last? Does it have some staying power or will the ridge pull back to the Aleutians? Do you think the way November goes, the winter might go as well ? And some pros are saying despite the Nina like referecnes some are making, in reality it is not really Nina correlated at all. Beyond that too technical for me to decipher what they mean. Guessing might have to do with the walk cell, BDO, IOD, MT, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Numerous October record breaking low pressures across New England. It was only 2 years ago that several records were set. Has the Low started weakening? The lowest pressure I could find was 972 mb at Concord NH at 8 am..... was that the lowest seen anywhere for this storm? Wind reports included 90 mph on the Cape, 83 mph at Stony Brook and 76 mph at Breezy Point. That was some breeze lol. I had a brief power outage here just after 11 PM last night. Lowest pressure here was 985 mb at 10:40 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Latest CFSv2 shows no BN T's anywhere, but 'No Skill' in the eastern third of the country for Nov: Bet the 'No Skill came in handy last Nov. with the switch from +6 by Nov. 08, to -3.3 at month's end. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 That developing system in the Gulf looks like it's going to rob us of our last chance of hitting 80 this year. If you believe the 12z GFS there aren't even any 70s on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Seems like we had a secondary wind maximum the last few hours. I would think from better mixing during the day. Lots of small branches down around campus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 2 hours ago, frd said: Do you think the way November goes, the winter might go as well ? And some pros are saying despite the Nina like referecnes some are making, in reality it is not really Nina correlated at all. Beyond that too technical for me to decipher what they mean. Guessing might have to do with the walk cell, BDO, IOD, MT, etc. Technically we are ENSO neutral right now. But neutral patterns can alternate between characteristics of El Niño and La Niña. That’s why I use the term “like”. November in recent years has more of a similarity to March than the winter. Cold November....cold March.....Warm November....warm March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Peak gust here this afternoon is 43mph, numerous gusts in high 30s. The 83mph gust at Stoney Brook was on an anemometer that is 390 ft high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Has the Low started weakening? The lowest pressure I could find was 972 mb at Concord NH at 8 am..... was that the lowest seen anywhere for this storm? Wind reports included 90 mph on the Cape, 83 mph at Stony Brook and 76 mph at Breezy Point. That was some breeze lol. I had a brief power outage here just after 11 PM last night. Lowest pressure here was 985 mb at 10:40 PM That Stony Brook gust was at 390 feet the roof of the hospital. That’s why it was higher than the other local gusts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: That Stony Brook gust was at 390 feet the roof of the hospital. That’s why it was higher than the other local gusts. Was the Breezy Point 76 mph gust at sea level, Chris? Also, does that Valley Stream rainfall total seem low to you? What was the total at JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Was the Breezy Point 76 mph gust at sea level, Chris? Also, does that Valley Stream rainfall total seem low to you? What was the total at JFK? Breezy Point gust was very close to standard anemometer height (34 feet vs. standard of 33 feet). However that gust was much higher than other gusts on the western south shore. Could have been caused by a mesovortex or other convective feature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, jconsor said: Breezy Point gust was very close to standard anemometer height (34 feet vs. standard of 33 feet). However that gust was much higher than other gusts on the western south shore. Could have been caused by a mesovortex or other convective feature. The time of that gust is interesting- between 11 PM and Midnight. It was around that time that I had my (short) power outage. Based on that graph, it looks like they had two 70+ mph gusts between 11 and Midnight? My pressure bottomed out at 985 mb around 10:40 PM, a bit after 11 the winds really started to pick up and then the outage came. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 There was a small tree down on Round Swamp Rd near the Northern State when I drove by, and some larger branches down here and there. In my neighborhood, lots of twigs and small branches down. So around me, probably 40-45 mph gusts or so, maybe here and there over 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 the stronger nestor gets the more we have a chance at getting remnant rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 New Euro and UKMET seasonal snowfall outlooks are out. Long story short: December is a disaster, January is below average, and February is great. I don't trust these at all but they fact that both are in broad agreement is somewhat interesting. https://www.bennollweather.com/ukmet https://bennollweather.com/ecmwf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 That actually looks like the backloaded winter I was thinking about, sort of like 2015-16, even though that was an el nino. Maybe more like 2005-06 if you consider ENSO. I liked 2015-16 a lot more than 2005-06. I took a glance at them and January and March look okay on the UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: That actually looks like the backloaded winter I was thinking about, sort of like 2015-16, even though that was an el nino. Maybe more like 2005-06 if you consider ENSO. I liked 2015-16 a lot more than 2005-06. I took a glance at them and January and March look okay on the UKMET Makes sense-water off the coast is well above normal and Arctic sea ice was below normal so can see a warm start to December as we've often see the past few years... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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