LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Rain rates were higher then radar returns showed in the last batch that came through Manhattan. I was out unclogging drains and it had that heavy drizzle type of effect with small droplet size. This last batch and the fact that it’s producing good rates may get us closer to the predicted 2” amounts. central Suffolk I would be prepared for damaging winds with that line coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 17, 2019 Author Share Posted October 17, 2019 Pouring here again. Up to 1.37" of rain so far today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 17, 2019 Author Share Posted October 17, 2019 Winds starting to pick up here as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Some crazy gusts here, gotta be approaching 45 mph now, nervous for those winds moving in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 teb 1.92 lga 1.50 ewr 1.59 jfk .94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Looks like the first sting jet damage reports coming in to our SW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Much of the region is well on the way toward receiving a general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall. Some areas could see even higher amounts. As of 8 pm, rainfall totals included: Allentown: 2.22" (old record: 1.23", 2002); Atlantic City: 1.21"; Bridgeport: 0.65"; Harrisburg: 1.25"; Islip: 0.91"; New Haven: 0.63"; New York City-JFK: 0.93"; New York City-LGA: 1.39"; Newark: 1.28"; Philadelphia: 1.14"; Scranton: 0.94"; and, White Plains: 1.57". With today's rainfall, Allentown's annual precipitation has now reached 50.63". That ranks 2019 as Allentown's 20th wettest year on record. 2019 is the 3rd consecutive year that Allentown has seen 50" or more precipitation. That ties the record set in 1951-53 and tied in 2003-05 for most consecutive years with 50" or more precipitation. Following the storm, cooler weather and gusty winds will give way to another round of warmer than normal temperatures. However, a possible tropical cyclone could develop over the Bay of Campeche and make landfall in Louisiana and later bring clouds and at least some rain to the region early next week. If so, readings could be cooler than had previously been modeled. The last week of October will likely start mild but end with a cool shot. The cool conditions could linger into the first few days of November, but overall the cool shot will likely be transient in nature, not the start of a long-duration cold pattern. Some uncertainty has increased as there is a risk that the Arctic Oscillation could go negative for at least a period beginning in late October. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around October 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -2.52 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.457. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. On October 15, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.000 (RMM). The October 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.285. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 59.5°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 73%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1.65" wind is still under 5mph with the occasional 10-15mph gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, gravitylover said: 1.65" wind is still under 5mph with the occasional 10-15mph gust. Howling winds here, one of those nights 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: Looks like the first sting jet damage reports coming in to our SW. Showing up nicely on the PHL and DIX radars. Doesn't quite look like a classic sting jet on WV yet, but it sure does on radar. Looping that radar reveals evaporating precip in the core of that wind field. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1.91 at 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 MD issued a little while ago. Sent from my Samsung Note 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: They could have probably gotten the game in tonight if they had waited till 8:30 to start. field would have been a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Update on the strong winds along the south shore Point of Woods 51 mph Cherry Grove 56 mph Ocean Beach 61 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 With 0.66" rain in the past hour, Newark's rainfall for today has reached 1.94". That surpasses the previous record for October of 1.42", which was set in 1974. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 winds really picking up here. Moderate rain to go along with it. Pivot may keep the rain going here but it will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Latest hrrrrr still says 60-70mph within next hour... not backing down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Barometer at 29.15. 1.09 inches in the bucket. Winds still out of the SE here in Sheepshead Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Latest hrrrrr still says 60-70mph within next hour... not backing down Already happening along the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Update- wind gust to 66 mph at Ocean Beach in the last 10 minutes. Smith Point Bridge 59 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Already happening along the south shore.Yep. This is only 300 feet up. Sent from my Samsung Note 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Wxnyc said: You are right , here in Bensonhurst, Brooklyn we are at 1.00 for the total but the heaviest rainfall rates were around 0.50 per hour , compared to torrential summer rain of 2-3 even 4 inches an hour it’s not that heavy. For a winter storm it would be considered heavy with 3-5 inch an hour snowfall rates but it’s all relative. Yeah definitely. It's all about perspective. I understand how some people consider tonight's rain heavy. 1 to 2 inches is a lot of rain. The rain is over here and I ended up with 1.20". A lot of rain, but it was over a long several hour period. In the summer I'll pick up the amount of rain I got tonight in just a half hour t-storm. So to me this wasn't heavy rain tonight, at least compared to summer t-storm rains. It was more an extended moderate rain and not terribly impressive. But it's all a matter of opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Getting creamed in that heavy line here. Power off and on now. Really nasty in that line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Here in eastern Nassau County on Long Island. Wind ESE gusting to 34mph. Rain now .94 of an inch. Barometer has gone from 29.50 at 6PM to 29.16 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Getting creamed in that heavy line here. Power off and on now. Really nasty in that line I am amazed that I have been able to get current reports from Fire Island tonight. In any case the models did project these winds along the shore with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: Yep. This is only 300 feet up. Sent from my Samsung Note 8 Can you post one for the central jersey nyc area with the sting jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 My wind has actually calmed down in the past 30 minutes. I think the storm is almost overhead. As it moves north and continues to intensify the winds will really crank out of the WNW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 17, 2019 Author Share Posted October 17, 2019 Rain looks about done here. Picked up 1.74" of rain for the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Just now, lee59 said: My wind has actually calmed down in the past 30 minutes. I think the storm is almost overhead. As it moves north and continues to intensify the winds will really crank out of the WNW. Same here. Barometer at 29.13 or around 987mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Getting close to game time for the wind switch. I think it’s going to take allot of people by surprise. Of course it would have been an infinitely more impactful event had it occurred at 5pm instead of 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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