bluewave Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 30 minutes ago, binbisso said: It's very unlikely we'll get snow late October or early November however that is a fantastic look on the EPS GEFS and the euro weeklies heading into November. What really stands out to me is the negative Nao on all guidance. Now we just have to wait and see if it really happens The NAO has actually been negative much of the month so far. But the Niña-like Pacific has dominated the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Models/ensembles relax the strong Nina type pattern late October so we should see cooler air masses brush by us. The mean trough still looks to be west of us so it should be an active though not cold pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Will be interesting to watch PTC 17 in the EPAC the next 24-48 hours - it's part of that Central American gyre some have noted recently. Most overnight guidance allows it to redevelop across the Bay of Campeche quickly, enough for it to become a tropical storm on some guidance as it approaches the US Gulf Coast. 00Z EPS tracks below: This system may ruin our chances at 80-degree weather early next week as it gets caught up in the southwesterly flow ahead of our next big frontal passage, centered on next ~Tuesday. On the flip side it could also help wipe out our recent rainfall deficit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 I wish the pattern that is depicted for the end of this month holds off until winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 It’s odd to see such a rapidly depending storm forecasted and very unimpressive winds forecasted. Storm forecasted just to our NE in the 970s and little wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 It’s odd to see such a rapidly depending storm forecasted and very unimpressive winds forecasted. Storm forecasted just to our NE in the 970s and little wind. It's pretty much tropical storm force winds to areas closest to the low in New England. That's about right for 970s.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, qg_omega said: It’s odd to see such a rapidly depending storm forecasted and very unimpressive winds forecasted. Storm forecasted just to our NE in the 970s and little wind. From what I get from some of the Mets, there’s a lag between deepening and winds. This thing is moving too fast for us to maximize winds. Also the majority of the area is on the weaker side of the storm. There will be plenty of wind tomorrow though region wide with a prolonged period of west winds with gusts in the 40s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: It’s odd to see such a rapidly depending storm forecasted and very unimpressive winds forecasted. Storm forecasted just to our NE in the 970s and little wind. Wherever convection is at play on LI will have some 50KT gust potential. It would be unusual not to see gusts like this with the low-level winds forecast (~950-925mb) and a rapidly deepening low in the area. I suspect most stations in the area will have G40-45KT after midnight and again tomorrow as the cold air moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Most of the time we get stronger winds here on the backside of a storm as the pressure rises. Think we're in for a similar outcome here. Anyway the wind field on the 3k NAM looks more like a tropical system than a purely cold core system with the strongest winds just to the North and East of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Any chance this thing ends up with a name like Melissa did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Cfa said: Any chance this thing ends up with a name like Melissa did? <1% chance 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Hrrr has wind gusts near 70 mph for southern areas of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Really impressive system regardless of what happens. The HRRR has the secondary going from around 1000mbs to 975mb in less than 12 hrs, that's bombogenesis in half the time required. The low pressure would also set records in New England for October. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Not entirely sure I buy the lesser rainfall forecast. Water vapor imagery shows a sharp negatively tilted trough centered over the mid-west, with abundant moist flow to the East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not entirely sure I buy the lesser rainfall forecast. Water vapor imagery shows a sharp negatively tilted trough centered over the mid-west, with abundant moist flow to the East. Lesser? The nam is 2-3" for much of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Gusty out of the SSE already. Leaves coming down in sheets... RIP foliage season (October 11 – October 16, 2019). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Really impressive system regardless of what happens. The HRRR has the secondary going from around 1000mbs to 975mb in less than 12 hrs, that's bombogenesis in half the time required. The low pressure would also set records in New England for October. The low pressure record for Cape Cod is only 2 years old with storm in late October 2017. New low pressure records for October around the region were set in 2006, 2012, and 2017. Just goes to show how extreme our weather patterns have become. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The low pressure record for Cape Cod is only 2 years old with storm in late October 2017. New low pressure records for October around the region were set in 2006, 2012, and 2017. Just goes to show how extreme our weather patterns have become. nice! the "octobomb" storm back in 2010 really stands out over the middle of the country, as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 The mountains do tricky things to the pressure field, but the dominant low appears to be taking shape on the lee side trof over central NC as of 15Z. Pressure falls are increasing over the Mid-Atlantic, which is exactly where this low will end up tracking later today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: nice! the "octobomb" storm back in 2010 really stands out over the middle of the country, as well. And the Boxing Day blizzard December record lowest pressure on Cape Cod a few months later. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/SLPrecords.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 35 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Lesser? The nam is 2-3" for much of the area Most of that is over LI, CT and the Hudson Valley with much lesser amounts for the city and NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: Most of that is over LI, CT and the Hudson Valley with much lesser amounts for the city and NNJ. Gfs is over 2 inches of rain for the area. The storm on the radar looks juiced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Gfs is over 2 inches of rain for the area. The storm on the radar looks juiced up. Yeah I'm not worried about a lack of rain, actually the exact opposite. I think the current trends argue for a wetter solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 I have to say the radar over Northern VA looks pretty impressive right now. Definitely a solid area of > 0.25" per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 The GFS and HRRR are more bullish on the closer in low to the area becoming strongest. Be interesting to the the 12z Euro and 18z NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: The GFS and HRRR are more bullish on the closer in low to the area becoming strongest. Be interesting to the the 12z Euro and 18z NAM. if that happens we get the chance of a sting jet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Really impressive system regardless of what happens. The HRRR has the secondary going from around 1000mbs to 975mb in less than 12 hrs, that's bombogenesis in half the time required. The low pressure would also set records in New England for October. *non-trop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, forkyfork said: if that happens we get the chance of a sting jet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: if that happens we get the chance of a sting jet looking really impressive on the HRRR and RAP; both showing W/NW 50-60KT gust potential somewhere between 11-2 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, forkyfork said: if that happens we get the chance of a sting jet Yeah, you can see it showing up on the HRRR. Numerous 0Z EPS members had a closer in solution for the strongest low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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