forkyfork Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 offshore convection robs us. it'll change in 6 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Just the usual model noise with a strong system...all have the heavy rains, just with different placement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Looks like a stormy pattern for the 2nd half October. The mean trough position shifts to the MW/GL while the WAR flexes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Looks like a stormy pattern for the 2nd half October. The mean trough position shifts to the MW/GL while the WAR flexes. Typical November pattern. Lots of screaming south easters followed by strong west winds. New Jersey surfers dream month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Typical November pattern. Lots of screaming south easters followed by strong west winds. New Jersey surfers dream month. Super typhoon recurve special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Wow, this sounds pretty rare- I dont remember something like this happening before. Has it? In every case I remember the offshore low takes over. Usually, that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: Super typhoon recurve special. It's going to get colder after the brief warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's going to get colder after the brief warmup. The last week of October will probably cool down if the weak convection near the dateline verifies. That would actually be a more Niño-like pattern for a change. Ventrice twitter freebie: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: The last week of October will probably cool down if the weak convection near the dateline verifies. That would actually be a more Niño-like pattern for a change. Ventrice twitter freebie: Looks like that would be MJO related. As the low frequency signal remains with the possible record breaking Indian Ocean dipole. I'm interested to see what happens after the fall with that. Being that the fall is climo peak for those events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Typical November pattern. Lots of screaming south easters followed by strong west winds. New Jersey surfers dream month. ALways when I have the week off in early Nov, I hope to get out and do some coastal fishing. In 30 years, the weather has been good maybe 3 times.....seriously. I'm thinking about going south this time, maybe Lake Marion in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Euro is the clear outlier on the rain front, everything else is widespread 1.5-2"+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 37 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Looks like that would be MJO related. As the low frequency signal remains with the possible record breaking Indian Ocean dipole. I'm interested to see what happens after the fall with that. Being that the fall is climo peak for those events. It will probably be a wait and see how this near record IOD and other factors set the table for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 14 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Euro is the clear outlier on the rain front, everything else is widespread 1.5-2"+. it's because of convection. we won't know who will get the 3+ jackpot until it forms 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: It will probably be a wait and see how this near record IOD and other factors set the table for the winter. Yeah, I saw that tweet. I've been trying to figure out what those other 2 years were. I'm assuming 94-95 and the 97-98 strong el nino year based on the following chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Just now, forkyfork said: it's because of convection. we won't know who will get the 3+ jackpot until it forms Definitely a nowcasting situation. Good thing it's not winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 22 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, I saw that tweet. I've been trying to figure out what those other 2 years were. I'm assuming 94-95 and the 97-98 strong el nino year based on the following chart. Yeah, 94-95 and 97-98. This time the other factors such as ENSO and NPM are much different. So we are looking at yet another new SST configuration in the Indio-Pacific. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 With one of the double barrel lows looking to pass over western LI , it looks to have a pressure of around 986mb. This according to the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 The heaviest precipitation in several months appears likely for parts of the region tomorrow into Thursday. A general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall now appears likely. Some areas, especially on Long Island, will likely see even higher amounts. The last time New York City received 1.00" or more rain in a day was August 22 when 1.01" fell. The last time New York City picked up 1.50" rain in a day was July 22 when 1.66" fell. The last time New York City received 2.00" or more rain in a day was August 11, 2018 when 2.90" fell. Following the storm, cooler weather will give way to another round of warmer than normal temperatures. The last week of October will likely start mild but end with a cool shot. The cool conditions could linger into the first few days of November, but overall the cool shot will likely be transient in nature, not the start of a long-duration cold pattern. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around October 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -13.60 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.044. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. On October 14, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.285 (RMM). The October 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.333. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the estimated October mean temperature is currently near 59.5°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 78%. Finally, Arctic sea ice extent on JAXA was 4.943 million square kilometers on October 14. That was the latest sub-5 million square kilometer extent on record. The previous latest date was October 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 There should be some pretty dynamic and impressive stuff going on in the NYC metro tomorrow afternoon and evening with the rapidly intensifying coastal storm. Going to be fun to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 32 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: There should be some pretty dynamic and impressive stuff going on in the NYC metro tomorrow afternoon and evening with the rapidly intensifying coastal storm. Going to be fun to watch. Haven't seen a regional QPF map like this for awhile. We'll see what verifies later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: There should be some pretty dynamic and impressive stuff going on in the NYC metro tomorrow afternoon and evening with the rapidly intensifying coastal storm. Going to be fun to watch. I’m thinking one of those massive region wide flood advisory type deals with a 100 mile wide band of heavy rain. .5-1” an hour type rates in that band. But being that it’s narrow and fast moving it never gets to a full flood situation. In another couple of weeks this same scenario would be much higher impact with leaves clogging drains. looks like the best winds on the front side will miss us to the east, so maybe some 40mph gusts for the coast. On the back side everyone should see some gusts approaching 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 @Hurr_Tracker13 @Rjay @forkyfork @Metsfan @Snowshack @Snow88 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 53 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: @Hurr_Tracker13 @Rjay @forkyfork @Metsfan @Snowshack @Snow88 Remember how ridiculous snow happy the new GFS was last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 Boy if the 00z GFS is right were are about to get back into a very active pattern for the second half of October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Next 8 days are back to averaging 59degs., or about 4degs. AN Month to date is +2.7[62.1]. Should be +3.0[61.0] by the 24th. 60.2* here at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 snow in october on halloween? book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: snow in october on halloween? book it! To soon, I certainly don't want that yet. We all know what happens to our winters if we get snow to early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 20 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: To soon, I certainly don't want that yet. We all know what happens to our winters if we get snow to early. It’s probably the GFS cold bias just overdoing things again. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/06/weather-service-says-its-upgraded-american-forecasting-model-is-about-ready-prime-time/ However, the memo noted that some cold bias remains in the model, which may still inflate snow amounts, mainly in forecasts three or more days into the future. “The cold bias has been substantially reduced, but it is still there,” Gross said. “You get a cold bias, you can still get too much snow. That’s what we’re working on now and figuring out what to do.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 It's very unlikely we'll get snow late October or early November however that is a fantastic look on the EPS GEFS and the euro weeklies heading into November. What really stands out to me is the negative Nao on all guidance. Now we just have to wait and see if it really happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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