CIK62 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 November will surprise, I am betting---on the BN side. CFSv2 is....... Week 1 N Week 2 AN Week 3 BN Week 4 BN Remember last November was +6 after Week 1, and ended as the star of the winter (by anomaly) at -3.3 with a 6.4" snowstorm. Then KAOS sent in their best agents and neutralized November with a 'mirror image' December. Lol. If Nov, Dec are both AN, it would make the last 11 years worth of Septembers, Octobers, Novembers, Decembers (44 months) about 32AN vs. 12BN . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 10 hours ago, Snow88 said: Not this early man Wow I thought it must be because of the perception that early snow leads to mild winters. Any snow would likely be minor in nature, but personally I’d be fine if the cool down leads to a touch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 If we do end up seeing a low with pressure around 970 there are going to be strong winds. It’s been a long time since even advisory level winds area wide. Some time early last spring. There are going to be allot of leaves blowing around from drought stressed trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 hour ago, mattinpa said: Wow I thought it must be because of the perception that early snow leads to mild winters. Any snow would likely be minor in nature, but personally I’d be fine if the cool down leads to a touch of snow. Well that’s why Anthony doesn’t want snow this early but he’s most likely getting early snow but this winter it’ll be different. Snow all winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Some mid 40s already where winds have gone calm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 I am due to fly in to HPN around 7PM Wednesday. I presume from what I am seeing/reading that there is a high likelihood of impacts to travel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, larrye said: I am due to fly in to HPN around 7PM Wednesday. I presume from what I am seeing/reading that there is a high likelihood of impacts to travel? Looks like that's during the worst of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Looks like that's during the worst of it Thanks. Will hope that the airlines waive their change fees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/13/2019 at 11:12 AM, dWave said: When it comes to snowfall, DC is turning into Atlanta. At the same time we have increasing snowfall. Theres a huge snow dichotomy along I 95 now over a relativetly short distance. I wonder if it's a semi permanent thing or if plummeting snowfall totals will eventually move up the coast here? Being in more favorable position for noreasters maybe saves us? I think we have a few decades left. Maybe by the time it stops snowing around here, we'll be too old to actually see snow (or our eyes will be so bad that we'll see snow everywhere lol.) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 17 hours ago, Snow88 said: I don't think there is alot of research about early snow and crappy winters. We talked about why it might happen last year. I remember Chris said when you have cold/snowy weather prior to winter, the atmosphere needs some time to recover to get back to that pattern and that might result in a milder December, and then you're already getting the winter started off on the wrong foot, and etc. A milder start means less snow albedo feedback from up north and milder and less snow, which is a more stable pattern than a colder/snowy pattern is. Thats why winters like 2014-15 are extremely rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 On 10/13/2019 at 10:56 AM, donsutherland1 said: October 29, 1971 when the temperature hit 80. Thanks Don, I suspect that the last 80 is the threshold for when true fall weather begins, because at all of our local airports we've seen 70 degrees even during the middle of winter (Jan/Feb)? Likewise the first 80 of the year is the threshold for true spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 60degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is +2.9[62.5]. Should be about +3.5[61.6] by the 23rd. 55.2* here at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 40 here currently. Progged lows of 32 Thursday/Friday. Could be the end of the growing season for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: 40 here currently. Progged lows of 32 Thursday/Friday. Could be the end of the growing season for me. Depends on how long those temps last. I saw a low of 28 a few weeks ago in the Poconos and yet there was no damage. I think for a widespread killing frost you need temps of 27 or lower for 4 straight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Depends on how long those temps last. I saw a low of 28 a few weeks ago in the Poconos and yet there was no damage. I think for a widespread killing frost you need temps of 27 or lower for 4 straight hours. I believe it’s 28 or lower for a hard freeze. I was going to bring this up last week in the NYC Freeze thread, the difference between a freeze and a hard freeze but I figured weenies heads would explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Just now, IrishRob17 said: I believe it’s 28 or lower for a hard freeze. I was going to bring this up last week in the NYC Freeze thread, the difference between a freeze and a hard freeze but I figured weenies heads would explode. lol yeah, I think it's in the NWS definitions somewhere too- and it has to last for 4 hours I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: lol yeah, I think it's in the NWS definitions somewhere too- and it has to last for 4 hours I think? I seem to recall that there was a time frame attached as well back in the day, not sure there is anymore. A quick search found this https://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01005015e022011curr.pdf#page7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: NAM has peak wind gusts in the 90-100 mph range over the ocean just east of where the center eventually forms. There is so much convection with this system, that models are still having trouble on where the main low will form. Just look at all the spread between the various models. We should beefing to get more clarity with the 12z runs today. If we could get a system like this in the winter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Just now, IrishRob17 said: I seem to recall that there was a time frame attached as well back in the day, not sure there is anymore. A quick search found this https://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01005015e022011curr.pdf#page7 Thanks! So a hard free is <28 but no time frame attached to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 I've always tried to remember this in 5 degree increments, so.... 37 F (light frost) 32 F (freeze) 27 F (hard freeze) Weird thing is, precip seems to follow a similar pattern- over the years I've noticed that mixed precip falls at around 36-37 (or a very wet snow), 32 is for standard snow, but to get the lovely powdery stuff with the high ratios you need temps of around 27-28 or lower. I wonder if this is because there is an average increase of 5 degrees for every 1,000 feet that precip falls (as long as there isn't an inversion.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 47F this morning First time it has been that cool in a while Stop trying to predict winter. It never goes well I think this coastal low bodes well for us going forward Second storm in a week...something that was elusive last winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro came in just as strong with the wind gusts to the east of the low. Check out those peak gusts near Block Island. Chris, are those winds at the surface? Wow! Even back here and just offshore, winds around 60 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: Chris, are those winds at the surface? Wow! Even back here and just offshore, winds around 60 mph Keep in mind the Euro is often overdone on winds. However even if you cut back by 25-30%, still a good event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: Keep in mind the Euro is often overdone on winds. However even if you cut back by 25-30%, still a good event Yep, I was a little dubious of those hurricane force gusts around Riverhead too lol. Cut that back by 1/3 and you still get 40 mph for around here and 60 mph for the Twin Forks- more reasonable. Still hurricane force gusts for a place like Block Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 NAM went nuts with this, from 1000s to 960s mbs in like 12 hrs or so. Still looks like a Gusty rainstorm for us though with much bigger impacts out east. Any potential for a sting jet as it heads out? Could definitely see Thursday overperform on winds if the stronger guidance is correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: NAM went nuts with this, from 1000s to 960s mbs in like 12 hrs or so. Still looks like a Gusty rainstorm for us though with much bigger impacts out east. Any potential for a sting jet as it heads out? Could definitely see Thursday overperform on winds if the stronger guidance is correct. This would be a perfect track for a snowstorm in the winter. This is a good practice storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 43 this morning, coolest so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Well, none of the bouys which would be affected by the system, are showing over 15' seas. I think they are based on the GFS. Real reason is the winds will be working on the water's surface for a short time only--- not like an approaching TC. Also note the GFS is showing the month ending in the 30's to 40's exclusively (27th-31st.)-----if you are worried about freezes and frosts around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Well, none of the bouys which would be affected by the system, are showing over 15' seas. I think they are based on the GFS. Real reason is the winds will be working on the water's surface for a short time only--- not like an approaching TC. Also note the GFS is showing the month ending in the 30's to 40's exclusively (27th-31st.)-----if you are worried about freezes and frosts around here. yes, the system is a quick developer and also a fast mover-in and out in about 12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 27 minutes ago, psv88 said: 43 this morning, coolest so far 41.9 in Syosset and 40.7 in Muttontown this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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