donsutherland1 Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don, when both October and November are above normal temps, the following winters are mild and snowless most of the time, right? It is typically a signal of a warmer winter. Since 1980, the following has occurred in New York City when both October and November were warmer than normal: Succeeding winter: Colder than normal: 3/13 (23%) cases Near normal: 1/13 (8%) cases Warmer than normal: 9/13 (69%) cases Breakdown of months: December: Colder than normal: 4/13 (31%) months Warmer than normal: 9/13 (69%) months January: Colder than normal: 2/13 (15%) months Warmer than normal: 11/13 (85%) months February: Colder than normal: 2/13 (15%) months Warmer than normal: 11/13 (85%) months December-February: Colder than normal months: 8/39 (21%) months Warmer than normal months: 31/39 (79%) months The snowfall signal was mixed. Mean: 24.2" Median: 24.9" Lowest: 3.5", 2001-02 Highest: 61.9", 2010-11 <10": 2/13 (15%) cases < 20": 5/13 (38%) cases 20" or more: 8/13 (62%) cases 30" or more: 5/13 (31%) cases 40" or more: 2/13 (15%) cases 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: It is typically a signal of a warmer winter. Since 1980, the following has occurred in New York City when both October and November were warmer than normal: Succeeding winter: Colder than normal: 3/13 (23%) cases Near normal: 1/13 (8%) cases Warmer than normal: 9/13 (69%) cases Breakdown of months: December: Colder than normal: 4/13 (31%) months Warmer than normal: 9/13 (69%) months January: Colder than normal: 2/13 (15%) months Warmer than normal: 11/13 (85%) months February: Colder than normal: 2/13 (15%) months Warmer than normal: 11/13 (85%) months December-February: Colder than normal months: 8/39 (21%) months Warmer than normal months: 31/39 (79%) months The snowfall signal was mixed. Mean: 24.2" Median: 24.9" Lowest: 3.5", 2001-02 Highest: 61.9", 2010-11 <10": 2/13 (15%) cases < 20": 5/13 (38%) cases 20" or more: 8/13 (62%) cases 30" or more: 5/13 (31%) cases 40" or more: 2/13 (15%) cases 2010-11 is such a massive outlier and I suspect that's because it came after a big el nino (2009-10). What was the other case with 40" or more, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 2010-11 is such a massive outlier and I suspect that's because it came after a big el nino (2009-10). What was the other case with 40" or more, Don? 2005-06. 40.0” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 Just now, donsutherland1 said: 2005-06. oh, I mentioned that in my prior post. It was worse for us on Long Island, we only got around 2 feet of the snow because the big totals with the Feb storm happened to our west. My instincts tell me we're likely in for somewhere between the 20"-30" range you mentioned as the most likely possibility, though there's a chance for breaking 30" if we get that one big storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: oh, I mentioned that in my prior post. It was worse for us on Long Island, we only got around 2 feet of the snow because the big totals with the Feb storm happened to our west. My instincts tell me we're likely in for somewhere between the 20"-30" range you mentioned as the most likely possibility, though there's a chance for breaking 30" if we get that one big storm. It’s interesting that the 20”-30” range on Long Island has been nonexistent since 2010. Our snowfall patterns have become so extreme. Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 2019-04-30 14.7 0 2 2018-04-30 35.5 0 3 2017-04-30 30.9 0 4 2016-04-30 41.4 0 5 2015-04-30 44.2 0 6 2014-04-30 45.6 0 7 2013-04-30 17.6 0 8 2012-04-30 3.7 0 9 2011-04-30 42.0 0 10 2010-04-30 47.2 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2019-04-30 12.8 0 2018-04-30 65.9 0 2017-04-30 39.3 0 2016-04-30 41.4 0 2015-04-30 63.7 0 2014-04-30 63.7 0 2013-04-30 46.9 0 2012-04-30 4.7 0 2011-04-30 55.3 0 2010-04-30 53.8 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s interesting that the 20”-30” range on Long Island has been nonexistent since 2010. Our snowfall patterns have become so extreme. Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 2019-04-30 14.7 0 2 2018-04-30 35.5 0 3 2017-04-30 30.9 0 4 2016-04-30 41.4 0 5 2015-04-30 44.2 0 6 2014-04-30 45.6 0 7 2013-04-30 17.6 0 8 2012-04-30 3.7 0 9 2011-04-30 42.0 0 10 2010-04-30 47.2 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2019-04-30 12.8 0 2018-04-30 65.9 0 2017-04-30 39.3 0 2016-04-30 41.4 0 2015-04-30 63.7 0 2014-04-30 63.7 0 2013-04-30 46.9 0 2012-04-30 4.7 0 2011-04-30 55.3 0 2010-04-30 53.8 0 Wow that's quite a gaping hole right in the middle! 30-36" would be eminently doable even with just one huge storm and a handful of minor 1-3" events. A backloaded winter could do that. That would probably be the ceiling for what's likely and I'd put that in second place. Perhaps more likely would be a snowfall total in the teens with no major (12+) totals and perhaps one 6" storm- that would be most likely. Getting something along the lines of 2001-02 or 2011-12 would be less likely, but still a distinct possibility. I'd put that in third place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 10 hours ago, doncat said: My station has hit 80° once in Nov, and that was on the 3rd in 2003. I recall that and some readings (in Staten Island at the tme) in 1993. Will needs to check but thought it was later in the month too, making it really impressive before the change locked in. Edit - saw you replied. Was 79 here as well that warm Nov 15th day in 1993. 80 at LGA/EWR 1950 saw the month (nov) start off hot 85/84 in Newark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: I recall that and some readings (in Staten Island at the tme) in 1993. Will needs to check but thought it was later in the month too, making it really impressive before the change locked in. Edit - saw you replied. Was 79 here as well that warm Nov 15th day in 1993. 80 at LGA/EWR I remember the marathon the day before was so hot people were passing out. And not just the runners! 80 at NYC on the 15th, the day before was 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 2010-11 is such a massive outlier and I suspect that's because it came after a big el nino (2009-10). What was the other case with 40" or more, Don? I remember that the winter predictions for 2010-11 had it being a poor winter for snow or cold. The pacific wasn't good, but we were saved by massive NAO/AO blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 Add another great weekend to the overall (majority) streak going back to Memorial Day, July 4th, Labor day etc.. Today looks great! Made it down to 46 last night and likely make a run at the low 70s here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s interesting that the 20”-30” range on Long Island has been nonexistent since 2010. Our snowfall patterns have become so extreme. Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 2019-04-30 14.7 0 2 2018-04-30 35.5 0 3 2017-04-30 30.9 0 4 2016-04-30 41.4 0 5 2015-04-30 44.2 0 6 2014-04-30 45.6 0 7 2013-04-30 17.6 0 8 2012-04-30 3.7 0 9 2011-04-30 42.0 0 10 2010-04-30 47.2 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2019-04-30 12.8 0 2018-04-30 65.9 0 2017-04-30 39.3 0 2016-04-30 41.4 0 2015-04-30 63.7 0 2014-04-30 63.7 0 2013-04-30 46.9 0 2012-04-30 4.7 0 2011-04-30 55.3 0 2010-04-30 53.8 0 Chris, what was the latest 80 degree day at JFK? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 Just now, Ace said: I remember that the winter predictions for 2010-11 had it being a poor winter for snow or cold. The pacific wasn't good, but we were saved by massive NAO/AO blocking. Yes, the predictions didn't change until the Boxing Day storm happened; our fortunes for the entire winter changed with the GFS! We had some near misses before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Ace said: I remember that the winter predictions for 2010-11 had it being a poor winter for snow or cold. The pacific wasn't good, but we were saved by massive NAO/AO blocking. it was actually the opposite of 2002-03 in terms of pac/atl, but results were similar. Main difference being the 2002-03 winter lasted a lot longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wow that's quite a gaping hole right in the middle! 30-36" would be eminently doable even with just one huge storm and a handful of minor 1-3" events. A backloaded winter could do that. That would probably be the ceiling for what's likely and I'd put that in second place. Perhaps more likely would be a snowfall total in the teens with no major (12+) totals and perhaps one 6" storm- that would be most likely. Getting something along the lines of 2001-02 or 2011-12 would be less likely, but still a distinct possibility. I'd put that in third place. The opposite of the 80’s with so many winters clustering around that 20-30” range. Those were considered good winters for us back then. Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1980-04-30 11.0 0 1981-04-30 16.5 0 1982-04-30 24.9 0 1983-04-30 32.1 0 1984-04-30 22.0 0 1985-04-30 27.3 0 1986-04-30 19.3 0 1987-04-30 23.1 0 1988-04-30 19.7 0 1989-04-30 8.2 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1980-04-30 9.0 0 1981-04-30 20.8 0 1982-04-30 35.4 0 1983-04-30 31.9 0 1984-04-30 27.5 0 1985-04-30 26.9 0 1986-04-30 15.2 0 1987-04-30 22.5 0 1988-04-30 19.5 0 1989-04-30 19.0 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: The opposite of the 80’s with so many winters clustering around that 20-30” range. Those were considered good winters for us back then. Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1980-04-30 11.0 0 1981-04-30 16.5 0 1982-04-30 24.9 0 1983-04-30 32.1 0 1984-04-30 22.0 0 1985-04-30 27.3 0 1986-04-30 19.3 0 1987-04-30 23.1 0 1988-04-30 19.7 0 1989-04-30 8.2 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1980-04-30 9.0 0 1981-04-30 20.8 0 1982-04-30 35.4 0 1983-04-30 31.9 0 1984-04-30 27.5 0 1985-04-30 26.9 0 1986-04-30 15.2 0 1987-04-30 22.5 0 1988-04-30 19.5 0 1989-04-30 19.0 0 Also, the Januarys back in the 80s were much colder. DC/Balt also had much more snow back then and far more suppressed storms than we have now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Chris, what was the latest 80 degree day at JFK? October 29, 1971 when the temperature hit 80. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Ace said: I remember that the winter predictions for 2010-11 had it being a poor winter for snow or cold. The pacific wasn't good, but we were saved by massive NAO/AO blocking. even at that it was a 30-35 day winter, once the pattern broke down around 2/1 it was warm and mainly snowless the rest of the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Also, the Januarys back in the 80s were much colder. DC/Balt also had much more snow back then and far more suppressed storms than we have now. When it comes to snowfall, DC is turning into Atlanta. At the same time we have increasing snowfall. Theres a huge snow dichotomy along I 95 now over a relativetly short distance. I wonder if it's a semi permanent thing or if plummeting snowfall totals will eventually move up the coast here? Being in more favorable position for noreasters maybe saves us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 We could be talking about a phaser now for Wednesday. Southern stream gets going quicker and tries to phase in with the bowling ball crossing the Great Lakes. The exact track of the Southern stream will determine our rain and wind impacts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 Yesterday more sunny than forecasted and today more cloudy http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 Looks like another blowtorch pattern starts next sunday. Amazing how much late season warmth we get these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 2005-06 and 2010-11 were both la nina years. 2010-11 is in the top 5 for la nina years in fact. I'll sell on either of those walking through the door. I'm still feeling bullish about winter attm, I'll take the over on 30" at NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 13, 2019 Author Share Posted October 13, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Unseasonably mild weather will prevail into midweek. Afterward, a short period of cooler weather will be followed by another warmer pattern for the southern New England areas. This cooler weather will likely coincide with a mid-week system that could bring much of the region 0.50"-1.50" rain with locally higher amounts. The last time New York City received 1.00" or more rain in a day was August 22 when 1.01" fell. The last time New York City picked up 1.50" rain in a day was July 22 when 1.66" fell. After August 22, New York City has picked up just 2.26" rain in total. The last week of October will likely start mild but end with a cool shot. The cool shot will likely be transient in nature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was +8.12 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.957. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. On October 12, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.226 (RMM). The October 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.143. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. The first week of November and possibly beyond could be warmer than normal overall. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 78%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 12 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Don is showing the reality that the upcoming winter will likely be warm. A warm, dry Oct/Nov is 2001/2011 in a nutshell and it's been a while since we had a truly warm, snowless winter. Even the past few warm winters weren't that bad in the snowfall department. I for one wouldn't mind a nice, warm snow free winter. No traffic headaches, no shoveling/ice issues, 60s during the day, sounds pretty good imo. Problem is ski, it's not warm or nice enough for the other activities I enjoy, and not cold enough for winter activities. I am starting to think at in SC or GA I can fish all winter in the lakes, no issues with coastal storms throwing up a violent sea and so on. Never thought I'd be in that camp, but I'm starting to feel that way. And no watching for snow either, since it is a rare occurence.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 14, 2019 Author Share Posted October 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 14, 2019 Author Share Posted October 14, 2019 So the big question, does the Euro cave to what the GFS has been showing the last couple of runs? Although the GFS did have a couple of runs where it showed a slower more dynamic/phased system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 What kind of impact would this have in NYC on Weds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 14, 2019 Author Share Posted October 14, 2019 1 minute ago, TriPol said: What kind of impact would this have in NYC on Weds? Depending on how the storm develops we could see 1-2" inches of rain and gusty winds. Details to be determined. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 6 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Depending on how the storm develops we could see 1-2" inches of rain and gusty winds. Details to be determined. I think this will end up a good soaking and come in like a wall. 12 hours of moderate rain 1-2 inches of it but winds should be minimal until Thursday when the rain is all gone. Look for some very windy conditions around Thursday from around 7am until Friday noon or so. Definitely possible damage with this wind event coming up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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