IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: We really dodged a bullet. If Sub-Tropical Storm Melissa was 350 miles further west, we'd be talking about heavy rain and high winds with insane wave heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Great display of sea foam today at Nantasket Beach. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 It was a very cool storm from the air I was flying the WATRS Tracks down to the Turks and Ciacos today. On the way down they kept us closer to the coast, But on the way back they sent us right up. She’s a monster. Nice flying conditions behind it though. I think we bust warm this weekend. This airmass wants to go for low 70s without clouds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 Yesterday, 7.1" snow fell in Bismarck. That easily surpassed the previous daily record for October 10 of 2.3" from 1959. Today, an additional 6.1" fell, surpassing the daily record of 1.6" from 1909. The 13.2" total is the earliest snowfall of at least a foot on record for Bismarck. The previous record was October 28-29, 1991 when 15.9" snow fell. In addition, 5 of the 6 12" or greater snowstorms (including the current storm) that occurred on or before November 30 took place after 1980. Record low temperatures were also set in parts of the West. Records included: Colorado Springs: 9° (old record: 14°, 1946); Denver: 9° (old record: 22°, 1946); Laramie, WY: 3° (old record: 9°, 1977); and, Pocatello, ID: 14° (old record: 19°, 2003). After mid-month, a warmer pattern will likely develop and then, following perhaps a transient shot of cold, could still lock in throughout the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The last week of October will likely be unseasonably mild. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -4.32 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.535. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On October 10, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.281 (RMM). The October 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.200. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 Even though it's dry out it has that raw feeling, it's cold and windy, leaves are falling like snow... and Don is talking about a 70% chance of warmer than normal. I dunno man, it feels awfully fall like out there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: Even though it's dry out it has that raw feeling, it's cold and windy, leaves are falling like snow... and Don is talking about a 70% chance of warmer than normal. I dunno man, it feels awfully fall like out there October has 20 more days, and a massive ridge in the last few days of the month can easily undo any coolness now. Average highs also come down pretty fast from here and even a day not that warm at the start of the month would be quite warm for Halloween. The leaves are also falling and turning colors because of how dry it’s been, not the temp necessarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 Tonight’s high tide ended up being the highest of all in my neighborhood. The entire end of my block had at least some inundation. Right up there with the highest tides since sandy and close to the perfect storm. Amazing that we reached these level without ever having high winds. Goes to show what days of large East swells can do by blocking water from leaving the bays. Also noticed some major erosion. A high impact event for the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 Tonight’s high tide ended up being the highest of all in my neighborhood. The entire end of my block had at least some inundation. Right up there with the highest tides since sandy and close to the perfect storm. Amazing that we reached these level without ever having high winds. Goes to show what days of large East swells can do by blocking water from leaving the bays. Also noticed some major erosion. A high impact event for the coast.Yeah it's very impressive along the jersey shore tonight as well. Have to monitor for a possible coastal storm again next week as well. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 Wow the EPS has a massive torch for us in about 9-10 days. That's easily 80s, maybe even a stray 90F in there. Downright scary how often these record breaking torches are showing up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Wow the EPS has a massive torch for us in about 9-10 days. That's easily 80s, maybe even a stray 90F in there. Downright scary how often these record breaking torches are showing up. I'd say that up to 74 is more likely. Even in a super warm month like October of 2007 didn't have highs near 90 in the second half of October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 59degs., or about 3degs AN. Month to date is +2.5[62.6]. Should be near +2.7[61.0] by the 20th. 55.8* here at 6am. 69.4* by 4pm, all sun, lite breeze. The GFS does go from 80* to 40*, bet. the 22nd-25th. 88* is record(22nd.) in a month that saw the earliest Trace of Snow ever, back on the 10th., 1979! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 So far this is the driest first half of fall for several of our stations. Just about every storm since the end of August underperformed on rainfall. FRG has had less than 1.00”of rain since September 1st. Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Oct 11 Missing Count 1 2019-10-11 1.69 0 2 1997-10-11 1.77 0 3 1982-10-11 1.84 0 4 1941-10-11 1.97 0 5 1948-10-11 1.99 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Oct 11 Missing Count 1 1982-10-11 1.28 0 2 2019-10-11 1.38 0 3 1997-10-11 1.42 0 4 1986-10-11 1.63 0 5 1965-10-11 1.80 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Oct 11 Missing Count 1 2019-10-11 0.80 4 2 2013-10-11 0.90 0 3 2007-10-11 2.40 0 4 2001-10-11 2.41 2 5 2016-10-11 2.64 0 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Oct 11 Missing Count 1 2016-10-11 1.17 0 2 2019-10-11 1.20 1 3 2014-10-11 1.66 0 4 2017-10-11 1.88 2 5 2007-10-11 2.48 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 heres what eight of the ten driest falls did in the winter...the other two 1881=82 and 1879-80 had near average precip... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 16 hours ago, jfklganyc said: It was a very cool storm from the air I was flying the WATRS Tracks down to the Turks and Ciacos today. On the way down they kept us closer to the coast, But on the way back they sent us right up. She’s a monster. Nice flying conditions behind it though. I think we bust warm this weekend. This airmass wants to go for low 70s without clouds. I was on a flight to the DR yesterday morning and after some early turbulence I would say it was the fastest time getting here from NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 Root for the wetter Euro Wednesday if you finally want to see a good soaking rain. It tracks the rapidly deepening secondary low right across our area. Could also be wind issues if the stronger Euro solution verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 The next period to watch for strong warmth to record highs (in the extreme) would be starting net weekend 10/20 - 10/23 period. Pending on how things progress we could be looking 75 - 80 range, perhaps above. We'll have to watch the center and positioning of the ridge and with clouds and any S / SE flow developing to limit the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 Currently partly sunny sandwiched between the clouds from Sub Tropical storms and approaching clouds to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, SACRUS said: The next period to watch for strong warmth to record highs (in the extreme) would be starting net weekend 10/20 - 10/23 period. Pending on how things progress we could be looking 75 - 80 range, perhaps above. We'll have to watch the center and positioning of the ridge and with clouds and any S / SE flow developing to limit the potential. Then the weather should turn colder after that for a brief time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 12 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Tonight’s high tide ended up being the highest of all in my neighborhood. The entire end of my block had at least some inundation. Right up there with the highest tides since sandy and close to the perfect storm. Amazing that we reached these level without ever having high winds. Goes to show what days of large East swells can do by blocking water from leaving the bays. Also noticed some major erosion. A high impact event for the coast. Finally got a chance to get to Tobay this morning. Beach is beat up. Ocean took several feet of the new dune they put up after Sandy. Water was crashing under the beach house well after high tide. Waves were really clean though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 Socked in today, don’t see how we get anywhere close to forecast highs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 Sun is out, like someone flipped a switch, nothing gradual about it. Mostly sunny 61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 Check out the long range GFS. Gfs has been showing a change to colder weather by mid month. Its possibly rushing it but I would love go see how the typhoon affects the pattern going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 Next weekend looks like a repeat of this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 Storm finally pulling away. Sun just came out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 4 hours ago, Snow88 said: Then the weather should turn colder after that for a brief time. That's all we get nowadays, weeks of warmth to record warm with a couple days of cool mixed in. 5 hours ago, SACRUS said: The next period to watch for strong warmth to record highs (in the extreme) would be starting net weekend 10/20 - 10/23 period. Pending on how things progress we could be looking 75 - 80 range, perhaps above. We'll have to watch the center and positioning of the ridge and with clouds and any S / SE flow developing to limit the potential. Today's Euro really pumps the ridge up but the strongest anomalies are to the N & W, we get undercut somewhat. However I have a feeling this will change and we'll get the brunt of the heat. Widespread 80s for 2-3 days look likely. This current pattern would be really ugly in the winter. The -NAO blocking is gone and there's a relentless Pac Jet present. Better hope that changes by Dec/Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: That's all we get nowadays, weeks of warmth to record warm with a couple days of cool mixed in. Today's Euro really pumps the ridge up but the strongest anomalies are to the N & W, we get undercut somewhat. However I have a feeling this will change and we'll get the brunt of the heat. Widespread 80s for 2-3 days look likely. This current pattern would be really ugly in the winter. The -NAO blocking is gone and there's a relentless Pac Jet present. Better hope that changes by Dec/Jan. Every model has the ridge in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 no cold in sight with this pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 Well the T could not wait for 'any stinking ridges' by me. Touched 70* at 4:15pm. The last days of October may still fly in the face of rest of month with a BN finale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted October 12, 2019 Share Posted October 12, 2019 On 10/10/2019 at 1:49 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: One thing that wasn’t blown was the marine forecast. Some of the largest and most powerful waves I have have surfed in Long Beach. Just monster walls of water imploding with a sound like thunder. Waves should increase even further into tomorrow morning. The huge east fetch is really working it’s magic. I know, it has been extremely depressing and has cost the sport fishing industry probably in the millions. But at least you guys are getting something out of it; this kind of disruption for this long is really unusual. Mother nature doing her thing again..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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