October 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Rjay]

Frustrating that i have to post screenshots of my own photos just to post them here. 

[psv88]

Squally now 

[bluewave]

At the 5.46 ft moderate coastal flood level in Freeport now. The highest tide of  the last few years was right around the 6.0 ft low end major.

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/ny/nwis/uv?site_no=01310521

[donsutherland1]

On account of the nor'easter's taking a track farther offshore than modeled, much of the region enjoyed a partly to mostly sunny day with readings in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Eastern New England and eastern Long Island experienced cloudy and windy conditions with at least some rain. Heavy rain affected Nantucket.

Meanwhile, a strong taste of winter prevailed in the Northern Plains. Snow was falling across the Dakotas. Blizzard conditions were likely in a portion of North Dakota.

Record cold also affected parts of the northwestern United States. Record low temperatures included: Cut Bank, MT: -3° (old record: 3°, 2009); Great Falls, MT: 0° (old record: 4°, 2009); Olympia, WA: 26° (old record: 27°, 1972); Pocatello, ID: 16° (old record: 18°, 1985); Quillayute, WA: 28° (old record: 31°, 1983 and 2008); Seattle: 34° (tied record set in 1946); and, Yakima, WA: 21° (old record: 24°, 2009).

Farther east, this air mass will likely result in only a transient shot of cold. After mid-month, a warmer pattern will likely develop and then could lock in throughout the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The last week of October will likely be unseasonably mild.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased.

Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal.

The SOI was -9.35 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.612.

During the July 1-August 31 period, the AO was negative on 56/62 (90%) days. Since September 1, the AO has been positive on 29/40 (73%) days.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after mid-October, likely following a brief cool shot, as does the extended range of the EPS. The unseasonable warmth could roll into the start of November.

On October 9, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.203 (RMM). The October 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.313.

In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 62%.

[bluewave]

Today probably had the best waves of the year in Long Beach.

 

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

At the 5.46 ft moderate coastal flood level in Freeport now. The highest tide of  the last few years was right around the 6.0 ft low end major.

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/ny/nwis/uv?site_no=01310521

Yes it was. was at my friends boat and was highest in a while.

[uofmiami]

Not sure if posted, but KWO-35 is back for testing!

 

000
NOUS41 KOKX 101945 CCA
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
102345-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
345 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2019

...THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO NYC TRANSMITTER KWO-35 WILL BE ON THE 
AIR TEMPORARILY TO TEST TRANSMISSION...

NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO-35, OPERATING ON A FREQUENCY OF
162.550, WILL BE ON THE AIR TEMPORARILY TO TEST TRANSMISSION FROM
A NEW LOCATION. THE TRANSMITTER WILL NOT BE OPERATING AT FULL 
POWER FOR THIS TEST SO AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE BROADCASTS WILL 
BE OPERATING IN A LIMITED CAPACITY. ONCE THESE TESTS ARE 
CONCLUDED AND DEEMED SUCCESSFUL, WE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARDS 
A FULL OPERATION AND PERMANENT INSTALLATION. FURTHER INFORMATION 
ON AN ESTIMATED TIME OF RETURN TO SERVICE WILL BE PROVIDED ONCE 
THE TESTS HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED.

IN THE MEANTIME, LOCAL NWS OBSERVATIONS, FORECASTS AND DATA FOR
THE NYC METROPOLITAN AREA CAN BE FOUND ON:

THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX

FACEBOOK AT: HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNEWYORKNY

TWITTER AT: HTTPS://TWITTER.COM/NWSNEWYORKNY

IF YOU HAVE ANY COMMENTS OR QUESTIONS, PLEASE CONTACT SUSAN
BUCHANAN, NWS ACTING DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS AT
[email protected] OR 301-427-9000.

VOICE RECORDINGS OF NWS WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE NYC
METROPOLITAN AREA WILL CONTINUE AT 631-924-0517.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UPDATES ON THE STATUS OF THE NYC NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THROUGH PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS 
WHEN ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.


$$

[weathermedic]

Winds gusting to the low-mid 30s at the Queens airports and on Long Island. Dew points pretty low across much of the area considering there’s a northeast wind. That high pressure means business. 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

On account of the nor'easter's taking a track farther offshore than modeled, much of the region enjoyed a partly to mostly sunny day with readings in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Eastern New England and eastern Long Island experienced cloudy and windy conditions with at least some rain. Heavy rain affected Nantucket.

Meanwhile, a strong taste of winter prevailed in the Northern Plains. Snow was falling across the Dakotas. Blizzard conditions were likely in a portion of North Dakota.

Record cold also affected parts of the northwestern United States. Record low temperatures included: Cut Bank, MT: -3° (old record: 3°, 2009); Great Falls, MT: 0° (old record: 4°, 2009); Olympia, WA: 26° (old record: 27°, 1972); Pocatello, ID: 16° (old record: 18°, 1985); Quillayute, WA: 28° (old record: 31°, 1983 and 2008); Seattle: 34° (tied record set in 1946); and, Yakima, WA: 21° (old record: 24°, 2009).

Farther east, this air mass will likely result in only a transient shot of cold. After mid-month, a warmer pattern will likely develop and then could lock in throughout the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The last week of October will likely be unseasonably mild.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased.

Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal.

The SOI was -9.35 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.612.

During the July 1-August 31 period, the AO was negative on 56/62 (90%) days. Since September 1, the AO has been positive on 29/40 (73%) days.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after mid-October, likely following a brief cool shot, as does the extended range of the EPS. The unseasonable warmth could roll into the start of November.

On October 9, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.203 (RMM). The October 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.313.

In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 62%.

Don do you think we could hit 80 degrees again sometime this month or even in early November?

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, weathermedic said:

Winds gusting to the low-mid 30s at the Queens airports and on Long Island. Dew points pretty low across much of the area considering there’s a northeast wind. That high pressure means business. 

Just imagine this happening during a snow storm.  Lots of virga and subsidence!

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the euro has always had an issue with bringing storms too far west

I remember that storm in Jan 2015 when it was predicting we'd get 30+ inches of snow and Upton put out those enormous snowfall total forecasts lol.

Fortunately, we got our big one the year after, so all was forgiven.

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Last week was the greatest 24 hr temperature drop for the month of October. April 2003 was the 3rd biggest 24 hr drop of all-time behind January 2014 and 1978.

 

 

 

 

Wow I dont remember the big temp drop in April 2003- all I remember is the big snowstorm we got a week prior to that on the 7th!

 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days are  averaging 58degs., or about 2degs.+ AN.

Month to date is  +2.6[62.9].       Should be  near +2.4[60.7] by the 18th.

56.1* here at 6am.     60.5* by 11am.

Yesterday I got to 72*, rounded off.    Warm wind and sun all day.

GEFS, GEPS look similar temperature wise on the next 15 days, with the BN air never really reaching the EC fully.    The GEPS is much warmer late in period than the GEFS.

[NYCweatherNOW]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember that storm in Jan 2015 when it was predicting we'd get 30+ inches of snow and Upton put out those enormous snowfall total forecasts lol.

Fortunately, we got our big one the year after, so all was forgiven.

 

Nemo or Juno ?

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Nemo or Juno ?

I think Feb 2013 was Nemo.  That was the one that dropped 40" of snow in Central Suffolk County at Medford.

Jan 2015 must have been Juno, that one dropped 2 feet of snow on Islip and 30" on Orient.

Jan 2016 "Jonas" brought us the goods, with 31" of snow at JFK and 35" at Jackson Heights.  The month before that, Dec 2015, was the warmest winter month on record, an amazing more than 10 degrees above normal!

 

 

 

[NycStormChaser]

Moderate floodong in Freeport this morning. Will post my videos later

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[Rjay]

[bluewave]

The storm has been taking on more subtropical characteristics the last few hours. Convection has almost completely wrapped around the center. An eye has become more visible now.

a

 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don do you think we could hit 80 degrees again sometime this month or even in early November?

While that's probably not the most likely scenario, it is a possibility sometime after mid-October if things turn out a little warmer than currently shown on the guidance. November would be less likely, as such readings are relatively rare.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

While that's probably not the most likely scenario, it is a possibility sometime after mid-October if things turn out a little warmer than currently shown on the guidance. November would be less likely, as such readings are relatively rare.

Yes, I only remember that happening in November 1993, when we shockingly hit it on the 15th, the latest such occurrence- and a day after the marathon!  Imagine if it had happened during the marathon!  Funny thing is we had a killing freeze earlier in the month, in the first few days of November, so Mid-November was a true Indian Summer!

The reason I asked is the last few years, the last 80 degree high has been pushed back to the middle of October (10-19), while the seasonal average was the latter part of September.

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The storm has been taking on more subtropical characteristics the last few hours. Convection has almost completely wrapped around the center. An eye has become more visible now.

a

 

Looks like the February Blizzard of 1978, except much warmer ;-)

 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I guess you could fish from your porch if you wanted to.  Riverside Ave- what an appropriate name lol.  Maybe change it to Seaside Ave!

[bluewave]

Looks like a record 6 SD jet streak for this time of year north of Japan with the super typhoon recurve. So expect a very active and changeable pattern next few weeks. This could eventually end up pumping the SE Ridge for some late October warmth. 

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Pretty much already hit our forecast high of 59 for the day. Clouds will need to roll in quick or its mid 60s for sure 

It's gone cloudy now

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a record 6 SD jet streak for this time of year north of Japan with the super typhoon recurve. So expect a very active and changeable pattern next few weeks. This could eventually end up pumping the SE Ridge for some late October warmth. 

 

 

 

Maybe another record temperature drop in the works. From 80s to 30s in late October.

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Maybe another record temperature drop in the works. From 80s to 30s in late October.

The super typhoon recurve should produce a more Niña-like firehose Pacific Jet pattern like we saw last winter. We may have to look to the MJO further out in time to reinforce or change this pattern.
 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Strongest winds of the whole event right now

[Brian5671]

NHC has named the storm-subtropical Melissa with winds of 65mph

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

While that's probably not the most likely scenario, it is a possibility sometime after mid-October if things turn out a little warmer than currently shown on the guidance. November would be less likely, as such readings are relatively rare.

That timeframe to watch for any shot at upper 70s to low 80s would be Oct 20th / 21s.  It'll be interesting to track as guidance is suggesting heights build and 850s peak in the 10-15c range.  Get enough sunshine and its very doable.  

[SACRUS]