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October 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

How did your no 90 in October call work out?

I made a mistake and I admitted. Snowski on the other hand had several 90’s on his calls but we only got one big 90 which in my opinion I lost there but still I don’t think we get 80’s anymore and if we do we can probably reach high 80’s cause of the extremes. We’ll see though 

temperature dropped to 52 now raining moderately.

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5 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I made a mistake and I admitted. Snowski on the other hand had several 90’s on his calls but we only got one big 90 which in my opinion I lost there but still I don’t think we get 80’s anymore and if we do we can probably reach high 80’s cause of the extremes. We’ll see though 

temperature dropped to 52 now raining moderately.

And it was more than just 90. It made it to mid 90s which was incredible. It's not a good idea to make calls about potential crazy events not happening, because the weather has gotten so crazy these days. We have so many extremes. We can see 80 degrees in February and then a blizzard the next week.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

el busto.    Western edge of rain is much further west than modeled.

We would be all doing cartwheels if it was winter. Looks like a good soaking today and we'll see how far west the rain comes tomorrow afternoon/night

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34 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

more rain this morning into early afternoon then was predicted for nyc for the entire storm lol.

A 50 or 60 mile precipitation adjustment from 24-36 hrs out is within the margin of error for most storms. We mainly notice it since the  population is so high here. Most of the time these shifts go unnoticed out in the Plains or Rockies where there is so much space between the smaller towns.

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About as raw of a day as you will see around here for early/mid-October. Currently 53.6 degrees with moderate to occasionally heavy rain. Only about a quarter of an inch in the bucket so far but its come in spurts, almost like squalls or bands. We've also been consistently gusting in the 20-25 MPH range.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

A 50 or 60 mile precipitation adjustment from 24-36 hrs out is within the margin of error for most storms. We mainly notice it since the  population is so high here. Most of the time these shifts go unnoticed out in the Plains or Rockies where there is so much space between the smaller towns.

Cutoff systems like this almost always end up further West than forecast because of the backing flow.

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1 hour ago, Ace said:

We would be all doing cartwheels if it was winter. Looks like a good soaking today and we'll see how far west the rain comes tomorrow afternoon/night

Great setup for a slow moving 2-3 foot snowstorm today. Classic Miller B with strong blocking.

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4 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Not seeing any 'below' average within 2 hours of the city. Data are data...

30dTDeptNRCC.png

I was referring to October. Not since Labor Day. Any above normal in this pattern is solely because of skewed overnight lows in and around the city especially on cloudy nights Big difference in averages when you start pulling  68/60 rather than 68/48 just outside the city. You can throw whatever numbers you want out there but since the latter part of September, this has not been an above normal pattern outside the 11 million crammed heat island. 

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9 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

I was referring to October. Not since Labor Day. Any above normal in this pattern is solely because of skewed overnight lows in and around the city especially on cloudy nights Big difference in averages when you start pulling  68/60 rather than 68/48 just outside the city. You can throw whatever numbers you want out there but since the latter part of September, this has not been an above normal pattern outside the 11 million crammed heat island. 

The lows have been warmer outside the city so far this month relative to the means. 

POU...Max...+1.5...Min...+4.3...Avg...+2.8

HPN...Max...+3.9..Min...+4.2...Avg....+4.0

LGA...Max...+4.0...Min...+1.7..Avg....+2.8

NYC...Max...+4.3...Min...+2.2..Avg....+3.3

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21 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

I was referring to October. Not since Labor Day. Any above normal in this pattern is solely because of skewed overnight lows in and around the city especially on cloudy nights Big difference in averages when you start pulling  68/60 rather than 68/48 just outside the city. You can throw whatever numbers you want out there but since the latter part of September, this has not been an above normal pattern outside the 11 million crammed heat island. 

This is not accurate.

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