October 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

It sure does Thursday Night into Friday, 1"+ for Long Island in addition to 50KT+ gust potential.

I feel like we can't really pinpoint anything until inside 24 hours since the low is just meandering off the coast

[Brian5671]

12z NAM total rains:

[MJO812]

This is going to be interesting to see how this plays out. The low just sits and spins and eventually travels west.

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

12z NAM total rains:

The heaviest could easily end up 100 miles in either direction and will probably bounce all over the place between now and thursday

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The heaviest could easily end up 100 miles in either direction and will probably bounce all over the place between now and thursday

Exactly. It’s the same thing every year. Model hugging. We need the rain desperately on the island. 

Another major precip fail last night and today. 0.0” in wantagh. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly. It’s the same thing every year. Model hugging. We need the rain desperately on the island. 

Another major precip fail last night and today. 0.0” in wantagh. 

Even that NAM has about 1.5" of rain here.

1-2" of rain with 50 mph winds would be quite the storm!

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Even that NAM has about 1.5" of rain here.

1-2" of rain with 50 mph winds would be quite the storm!

 

We haven’t had anything like that with trees in full leaf in a while. There aren’t nearly as many trees as pre Sandy/Irene on the island but I would still expect some tree damage and power outages. That’s if we get gusts to 60+. 60 seems to be the threshold.  

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We haven’t had anything like that with trees in full leaf in a while. There aren’t nearly as many trees as pre Sandy/Irene on the island but I would still expect some tree damage and power outages. That’s if we get gusts to 60+. 60 seems to be the threshold.  

I agree- thats what it takes for power outages around here.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I agree- thats what it takes for power outages around here.

I think this storm over preforms wind wise. These October pressure gradient driven storms tend to do so. I think it has to do with the more convective nature of storm being able to mix down higher winds. October 1996 comes to mind, we had 70+.gusts and tree damage with that one.  

I could see some areas also over preforming precip wise as well. There will likely be bands of of heavy rain that sit and dump. Where they setup and how far west they make it, is the big unknown at this point 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think this storm over preforms wind wise. These October pressure gradient driven storms tend to do so. I think it has to do with the more convective nature of storm being able to mix down higher winds. October 1996 comes to mind, we had 70+.gusts and tree damage with that one.  

I could see some areas also over preforming precip wise as well. There will likely be bands of of heavy rain that sit and dump. Where they setup and how far west they make it, is the big unknown at this point 

Interesting thing is, I've almost always had power outages in the summer and fall and never in the winter.  The closest we came to a power outage in the winter here was the one we had in the first March noreaster out of four that we had a few years ago.  But that one was mostly rain anyway.  I've never lost power during a snowstorm (or even during an ice storm)- knock on wood!

 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think this storm over preforms wind wise. These October pressure gradient driven storms tend to do so. I think it has to do with the more convective nature of storm being able to mix down higher winds. October 1996 comes to mind, we had 70+.gusts and tree damage with that one.  

I could see some areas also over preforming precip wise as well. There will likely be bands of of heavy rain that sit and dump. Where they setup and how far west they make it, is the big unknown at this point 

I can see that happening, especially with this thing sitting and spinning in place for days.  Would this qualify as our first noreaster of the season, and do you think that Dec 1992 would be a fair comparison (a lesser version of that historic storm.)

 

[Brian5671]

Euro keeps the bigger winds and rain central LI/Bridgeport, CT and on east.     About an inch of rain from that point increasing as one heads east.  Not much rain in NYC maybe a quarter to half inch.  Close to nothing far NW burbs...  Best rains/winds in SE NE.   Starts to wind down dawn Friday as the system weakens and kicks east.  Run is further east than the 0z Euro last night

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro keeps the bigger winds and rain central LI/Bridgeport, CT and on east.     About an inch of rain from that point increasing as one heads east.  Not much rain in NYC maybe a quarter to half inch.  Close to nothing far NW burbs...  Best rains/winds in SE NE.   Starts to wind down dawn Friday as the system weakens and kicks east.  Run is further east than the 0z Euro last night

Boring weather continues

[eco94]

9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Boring weather continues

 

38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro keeps the bigger winds and rain central LI/Bridgeport, CT and on east.     About an inch of rain from that point increasing as one heads east.  Not much rain in NYC maybe a quarter to half inch.  Close to nothing far NW burbs...  Best rains/winds in SE NE.   Starts to wind down dawn Friday as the system weakens and kicks east.  Run is further east than the 0z Euro last night

A quarter to half inch would still be really appreciated here

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, eco94 said:

 

A quarter to half inch would still be really appreciated here

yep, I'd take that and run.    Got about .25 last night so slowly getting some rain events up this way but nothing really big to soak the ground

[Rtd208]

The EPS is much wetter. Location dependent. 

[bluewave]

12z today was the first time all the models converged on a common solution. Now we just have to wait and see what type of shorter term adjustments develop next few days.

Euro forecast courtesy of eweather

https://twitter.com/Eweather13?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

[Rtd208]

EPS for the coastal storm.

[uncle W]

reminds me of the early January 2018 storm only its rain this time...

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

10 minutes ago, uncle W said:

reminds me of the early January 2018 storm only its rain this time...

It’s a good thing it’s not winter. This one would be tuff to watch. CC gets 3’ and the city has blowing pixie dust

[Rtd208]

A better view of the EPS for the coastal storm. The EPS has been wetter then the Euro Op. 

 

[NJwx85]

Headed for Boston on Friday, but the worst looks to be over by then. Hoping it clears out for the weekend up there. Anyone know if the Euro keeps Boston in the pesky Northerly/Wet flow on Saturday like the GGEM shows?

[bluewave]

Imagine how hot it would have been with this pattern in July instead of September.

 

[forkyfork]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Imagine how hot it would have been with this pattern in July instead of September.

 

one of these years it's going to happen

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

one of these years it's going to happen

Not going to be a good time for me, or anyone in the horticulture industry. When it does happen it’s going to have serious consequences for area Forrest’s too. 

[gravitylover]

xx

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Boring weather continues

Tell it to the captains who are spending most of the prime fall fishing season tied to the dock due to horrid winds.....sunny dry and calm is one thing, repeated 20-30 out of the south and northeast, rain or no, is ruining the whole season. Hope we don't have this pattern in the winter, where the precip avoids us. 

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Tell it to the captains who are spending most of the prime fall fishing season tied to the dock due to horrid winds.....sunny dry and calm is one thing, repeated 20-30 out of the south and northeast, rain or no, is ruining the whole season. Hope we don't have this pattern in the winter, where the precip avoids us. 

Was the same last year in OCT

[donsutherland1]

A generally cloudy, cool, and wet period lies ahead, especially from tomorrow through Friday timeframe. Amounts of rain will depend on the track of an offshore storm. Parts of eastern Long Island and eastern New England could receive high winds and heavy rain for a time. A light-to-moderate rainfall could occur in the larger New York City area and nearby suburbs.

Meanwhile, another unseasonably cold air mass will likely move into the northern Rockies and then northern Plains. The potential for some record low temperatures exists in the Wednesday-Friday timeframe in that region with the highest probability initially being locations in Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. Blizzard conditions could also develop in a portion of the Dakotas. Some record low temperatures could follow the storm's departure.

Farther east, this air mass will likely result in only a transient shot of cold. After mid-month, a warmer pattern will likely develop and then lock in throughout the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The last week of October will likely be unseasonably mild.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased.

Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal.

The SOI was -1.94 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.256.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after mid-October, as does the extended range of the EPS. While the timing is far out, the EPS weeklies also suggest that the warmth could roll into the start of November.

On October 6, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.326 (RMM). The October 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.291.

The MJO has now been in Phase 1 for 17 consecutive days. That is the longest such streak since July 6-24, 2004 when the MJO was in Phase 1 for a record 19 consecutive days.

In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 60%.

[EasternLI]

12 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Interestinging development. If we put all other weather drivers aside like the NAO and PNA, what ENSO state is more favorable for a productive winter in our area Modoki or Neutral? Reason being I often hear Mets and amateurs alike vouch for each if you want a cold/stormy pattern.

Sorry I didn't get a chance to respond to you earlier. The idea is that you want to see the higher SST'S near the equatorial dateline. So that can drive convective forcing in that area. Which can help drive the PNA. That's the really simplified explanation. Now, other factors have to be taken into account, as well as how they all operate together. Some can constructively interfere(work with) or destructively interfere(work against). So either of those ENSO states can deliver a productive winter depending on the SST layout plus other factors. A neutral event is more susceptible to being overpowered by other factors but it's the same general idea. It gets complicated, because ultimately everything works together.