Rtd208 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 We are inching closer to winter. What changes are in store for us in October? Post them here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 I wonder if it will be like 2007 when we peaked in mid November. Though that year the heat remained well into October “With seasons like this, you usually have an extended period of color,” said Frank Lombardo, a meteorologist and chief executive officer of the WeatherWorks forecasting company, based in Warren County. “The trees that are susceptible to drier weather will start turning leaves early. The trees that are healthy and aren’t stressed will start to turn their leaves later, so you’ll get an extended season.” A big factor contributing to colorful fall foliage seasons in New Jersey is adequate rain, which helps keep the root system of trees strong, Lombardo noted. “We had a very wet spring," he said. "So a lot of trees are healthy, with a lot of leaves hanging on.” Despite some trees that are shedding their leaves a little early, Tom Sheppard also is confident New Jersey will have a colorful autumn. “I think we’ll have a nice fall foliage season,” said Sheppard, chief park naturalist for the Hunterdon County Division of Parks and Recreation. “Will we have the best one? I wouldn’t say that, but I think we’ll have a solid one. I think all the rain we had early in the year has been enough to keep the trees in good condition.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Looks like the NAO will be negative as we head into October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 11 hours ago, Snow88 said: Looks like the NAO will be negative as we head into October. Great. Then it will disappear in December and not return again til April..... 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 28, 2019 Author Share Posted September 28, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 18 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Been nothing but swells on the ocean punctuated by rough seas; can't get out to the fish. of course the weather will cool and the fish will move out of range now. For the first time, thinking about moving south and living near a lake. Winter really is too long here, even if it doesn't always seem that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 The first 8 days of October are averaging 65degs., or about 4 or 5degs. AN. EURO, GFS shaking hands now on the first 3 days of October: Both> 82, 88, 73. EURO lower for this weekend: 58, 68 vs. 64, 65. 64.2* here at 6am. 67.5* by 10am. 69.5* at 11am. 71.0* at Noon. 78.0* by 4pm. 79.1* at 4:30pm.(just saw a 95* output from Cincinnati) 80.4* at 5pm. For anyone interested, this is CFSv2 500mb predictions currently for weeks centered on date shown": Oct. 01 AN+, Oct. 08 N, Oct. 15 N, Oct. 22 BN, Oct. 29 AN, Nov. 05 N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sal Blandino Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 This constant changing thinking of the weather models just really upsets me. Two days ago I was watching an animation of the precip on map and it forecasted nothing after Thursdays system until the very end of next week at the earliest and now today it has a ton of rain here from late Sunday through Tuesday. I mean this is just aggravating and frustrating that models never know anything. What I would like is that cold front to just please move through with any precip from late Sunday and be out of here by Monday with high pressure back in control from Monday through next week. This just makes looking at the forecast very frustrating 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Nice dramatic BDCF shown on the models. NAM is really strong with it going from upper 80s/low 90s on Wed to low-mid 50s by Thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 44 minutes ago, Sal Blandino said: This constant changing thinking of the weather models just really upsets me. Two days ago I was watching an animation of the precip on map and it forecasted nothing after Thursdays system until the very end of next week at the earliest and now today it has a ton of rain here from late Sunday through Tuesday. I mean this is just aggravating and frustrating that models never know anything. What I would like is that cold front to just please move through with any precip from late Sunday and be out of here by Monday with high pressure back in control from Monday through next week. This just makes looking at the forecast very frustrating Welcome to weather models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Sal Blandino said: This constant changing thinking of the weather models just really upsets me. Two days ago I was watching an animation of the precip on map and it forecasted nothing after Thursdays system until the very end of next week at the earliest and now today it has a ton of rain here from late Sunday through Tuesday. I mean this is just aggravating and frustrating that models never know anything. What I would like is that cold front to just please move through with any precip from late Sunday and be out of here by Monday with high pressure back in control from Monday through next week. This just makes looking at the forecast very frustrating The solution is to stop practicing modelology and learn more about the weather and how things work so you can make your own determinations. The models are really only supposed to be used as more tools in your kit that enable you to make the best decision as to how you see the weather unfolding for the next period of time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 suddenly cleared out here-temps have jumped--75/65 currently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 New all time record October high temperature in Cincinnati today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 ............................................................... October temperature and precipitation for NYC... decade....Ave.......high..low......Ave.max/min...max...min......Rainfall 1870's.....55.5.......60.3....50.6......76.0...34.1......85...29......3.55" 1880's.....53.9.......58.8....48.6......77.0...34.1......87...29......3.17" 1890's.....55.5.......59.5....52.5......77.4...37.3......87...34......3.59" 1900's.....57.2.......61.3....52.7......77.1...37.5......82...32......4.39" 1910's.....57.9.......59.4....53.0......80.1...37.1......87...32......4.41" 1920's.....56.8.......61.1....50.6......81.4...35.3......90...29......3.39" 1930's.....57.4.......61.3....54.5......81.2...36.3......91...28......3.22" 1940's.....58.7.......63.6....53.8......84.9...37.8......94...30......2.42" 1950's.....58.6.......61.7....55.5......83.6...38.0......88...33......3.68" 1960's.....58.2.......61.8....55.0......82.2...35.3......86...31......2.45" 1970's.....56.9.......62.7....52.9......78.1...35.7......88...29......3.88" 1980's.....57.0.......61.8....52.8......78.5...37.2......84...31......4.01" 1990's.....57.7.......61.9....54.5......79.1...38.8......86...34......3.85" 2000's.....57.0.......63.6....55.0......79.1...38.1......87...36......5.23" 2010's.....59.1.......64.1....57.1......80.7...38.7......86...33......3.99"...2010-2018 1870--- 2009........56.8.......63.6....48.6......80.0...36.8......94...28......3.66" 1980--- 2009........57.2.......64.1....52.8......78.9...38.0......87...31......4.36" Warmest... 64.1 in 2017 63.6 in 1947 63.6 in 2007 63.1 in 1949 62.7 in 1971 61.9 in 1990 Coolest... 48.6 in 1888 49.7 in 1889 50.6 in 1925 50.6 in 1876 50.9 in 1869 wettest"... 16.73 in 2005 13.31 in 1903 12.97 in 1913 09.00 in 1927 08.63 in 1983 driest... 0.14 in 1963 0.28 in 1924 0.36 in 2013 0.43 in 1879 0.59 in 1892 0.66 in 2001 0.66 in 1909 Snowiest"... 2.9" in 2011 0.8" in 1925 0.5" in 1876 0.5" in 1952 Hottest max.. 94 in 1941 10/5 91 in 1939 10/10 90 in 1927 10/2 90 in 1941 10/6 90 in 1938 10/17 89 in 1922 10/5 Coolest monthly max... 66 in 1888 70 in 1894 70 in 1895 70 in 1977 71 in 1981 Coldest min... 28 in 1936 10/27 29 in 1879 10/25 29 in 1976 10/27 29 in 1976 10/28 29 in 1925 10/31 29 in 1887 10/31 warmest monthly min... 45 in 1946 45 in 1971 44 in 2004 43 in 1994 43 in 1927 Octobers with a temp. 32 or lower... 1876...32 1879...29 1877...29 1889...32 1904...32 1917...32 1925...29 1928...32 1933...32 1936...28 1940...30 1965...32 1969...31 1972...32 1974...31 1975...31 1976...29 1988...31 ................................................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 ewr is up to 84. this morning's nam showed a high below 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 1, 2019 Author Share Posted October 1, 2019 Current temp 84/DP 67/RH 58% Impressive for October 1st. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Bet tomorrow busts high unless the clouds/front come too early. Midwest warmth was impressive today and that's coming east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: New all time record October high temperature in Cincinnati today. and cleveland, and louisville, and indy, and lexington, and nashville, and birmingham... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Bet tomorrow busts high unless the clouds/front come too early. Midwest warmth was impressive today and that's coming east Agree, widespread low 90s, maybe even mid 90s? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Bet tomorrow busts high unless the clouds/front come too early. agreed. warm spots may end up being JFK, adjacent parts of the south shore and the jersey shore. think we'll have some spotty thunderstorms with the late afternoon front, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 18z NAM slightly slower with the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 October all-time records: JFK: 90 on 10/8/2007 LGA and EWR: 93 on 10/5/1941 NYC: 94 on 10/5/1941 ISP: 88 on 10/8/2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: October all-time records: JFK: 90 on 10/8/2007 LGA and EWR: 93 on 10/5/1941 NYC: 94 on 10/5/1941 ISP: 88 on 10/8/2007 westerly compressing flow ahead of a BDCF is money for big heat here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 21 minutes ago, forkyfork said: westerly compressing flow ahead of a BDCF is money for big heat here I guess the only thing stopping it would be debris cirrus from whatever complex survives out of the Midwest/Lakes tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: and cleveland, and louisville, and indy, and lexington, and nashville, and birmingham... Looks like Syracuse also set a new all time October record high of 88 degrees. Time Series Summary for SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1963 87 0 2 1951 86 0 - 1950 86 0 - 1949 86 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 81° here today...Do think we hit 90° tomorrow for city....dropping quickly later towards 60° by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: I guess the only thing stopping it would be debris cirrus from whatever complex survives out of the Midwest/Lakes tonight. i forgot about that because of the time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 84 today imby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Looks like Syracuse also set a new all time October record high of 88 degrees. Time Series Summary for SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1963 87 0 2 1951 86 0 - 1950 86 0 - 1949 86 0 1963 had a mild October and November but very cold December...coldest week and month came in December that winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 1, 2019 Author Share Posted October 1, 2019 The 18z GFS has a pretty sizeable rain event/coastal storm for the early and middle part of next week. Still a little ways out but nice to see things becoming active again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now