Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 12 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Thanks for posting that. I just looked at the surface winds on the model. (I was looking at Tropical Tidbits, which doesn't offer the 925 mb map). It does depict a pocket of stronger surface winds just south/south east of the low, especially as it bottoms out, but the 10 meter map doesn't show those winds mixing as readily to the surface (only 25-30 mph) as it moves into northern IN/IL and pressures begin to rise. That is sustained though. Would certainly have a period of stronger gusts in the RGEM scenario... if it's right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 12z Euro gust map has 50-60 mph gusts. Wonder if any of the offices will go into the wind potential in the afternoon discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 HRRR is in the deeper camp as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Hoosier, you nailed it. The ILX AFD isn't out yet. IWX- LOOKING FURTHER AT THE GUST POTENTIAL, ENDED UP RAISING GUSTS SAT NIGHT/SUN AM WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET MOVING THROUGH AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATING BETTER WINDS AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION ON SOUNDINGS LOOKS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN ORIGINALLY PROGGED. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT THE LAKE, BUT IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG/EAST OF I-69. LOT- ASIDE FROM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT FROM THIS STORM, WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, DUE TO THE ONSHORE COMPONENT. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW COULD DEEP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 990S MB SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST- NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS UP AROUND 30 KT LATER IN THE DAY, WE COULD HAVE WAVES ON THE LAKE INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 6' FOR A PERIOD, WHICH COULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SOME MINOR LAKE SHORE FLOODING OVER THE IL SHORES. IND- IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, WINDS WILL GUST TO 30-40 MPH WITH GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN PLAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. IF WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN BETTER THAN ANTICIPATED, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN A FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 System has become tropical storm Olga. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: Hoosier, you nailed it. The ILX AFD isn't out yet. IWX- LOOKING FURTHER AT THE GUST POTENTIAL, ENDED UP RAISING GUSTS SAT NIGHT/SUN AM WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET MOVING THROUGH AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATING BETTER WINDS AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION ON SOUNDINGS LOOKS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN ORIGINALLY PROGGED. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT THE LAKE, BUT IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG/EAST OF I-69. LOT- ASIDE FROM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT FROM THIS STORM, WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, DUE TO THE ONSHORE COMPONENT. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW COULD DEEP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 990S MB SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST- NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS UP AROUND 30 KT LATER IN THE DAY, WE COULD HAVE WAVES ON THE LAKE INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 6' FOR A PERIOD, WHICH COULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SOME MINOR LAKE SHORE FLOODING OVER THE IL SHORES. IND- IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, WINDS WILL GUST TO 30-40 MPH WITH GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN PLAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. IF WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN BETTER THAN ANTICIPATED, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN A FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY. Well we'll see. Winds could still be underplayed if the deeper models verify, but it's a wait and see game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 Recon found a pressure of 998 mb. Since this thing is going to get baroclinic assistance near/after landfall, the pressure at landfall could give us a clue as to whether the deeper models may be on the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 The 18z HWRF goes crazy. Gets down to at least 981 mb (with tight gradient) but run is still coming in. Big wind problems if that verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 It is good with tropical systems but will add the disclaimer that I'm not sure how it performs with transitioned systems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 19 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The 18z HWRF goes crazy. Gets down to at least 981 mb (with tight gradient) but run is still coming in. Big wind problems if that verifies. 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It is good with tropical systems but will add the disclaimer that I'm not sure how it performs with transitioned systems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Just now, Chicago WX said: Yeah HWRF is like the CRAS when it comes to mid latitude storms. Okay maybe not that bad but the value isn't really there beyond the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 Based on my research of tropical remnants in LAF that I did years ago, I can't recall an instance of something that deep in the area, so yeah, it makes it easy to bet against. Even Ike only got down to about 988 mb while in Indiana... of course that had been a hurricane before that and I am not comparing this setup to Ike. We don't get regular practice with this kind of thing in the Midwest... a tropical system being ingested by a negatively tilting trough and the whole thing hauling a**, but intuitively speaking, something toward the deeper outcomes (excluding HWRF) makes sense to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 By the way, I just checked the forecast PW value during the rainstorm, for Detroit. That is a value 1.45." This would be at about the general maximum for this time of year for the DTX sounding location (see SPC sounding climatology.) The average for this time of year would be 0.57." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2019 Author Share Posted October 26, 2019 Quite a difference on back to back runs this close in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 FUN pattern! What a cure for the wx boredom that was summer around here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Quite a difference on back to back runs this close in This whole system reminds me of a warm version of Dec 15, 1987. Track seems similar, peaking out about the same region. IF only twas winter..sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 46 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: This whole system reminds me of a warm version of Dec 15, 1987. Track seems similar, peaking out about the same region. IF only twas winter..sigh Let's hope we don't burn up all the good systems now. This pattern would be absolutely spectacular in a month or later from now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2019 Author Share Posted October 26, 2019 00z Euro dumps about 3" of rain here. The max band could end up a tad west though depending on track. 35 and dead calm outside. Almost hard to believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 Kind of on the western edge of things here, but it looks like perhaps 1/4-1/2" of cold rain tomorrow afternoon/evening. Nice soaker for eastern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2019 Author Share Posted October 26, 2019 Can't rule out a low end/conditional severe/tornado threat later this afternoon and evening out ahead of the surface low. SPC doesn't have it outlooked and I don't blame them but a tongue of modest instability does swing through in the midst of strong shear profiles. Lapse rates aloft are garbage so any instability is going to have to be more advective driven. Guidance does break out showers/storms in the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 Some guidance, such as the below HRRR, is really going all in.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 sub 990 gonna happen, lol the ULL picking up the remnant low and deepening in just the right spot 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 If today's system were a snow maker we'd really be sweating the western edge lol. Models have bumped up QPF to between 0.5-0.75". Very steep drop off in amounts as you head west into extreme eastern IA. This kind of reminds me of 12/1/2006 but with rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2019 Author Share Posted October 26, 2019 Might have a bit of a meh outcome around here with heaviest band of rain west and strongest winds south. Updated LOT afd mentioned the possibility of a period of 50+ mph winds in the southern cwa but no wind advisory yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2019 Author Share Posted October 26, 2019 Lowest pressure I can find is 998.5 in Tupelo, MS. If you check out radar, you can actually see the remnant circulation down there now just northwest of Tupelo. Possible that pressure is lower in between observation locations, but a number of models had it down to 993-995 at 1 pm central which may not verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2019 Author Share Posted October 26, 2019 Almost looks like an eye lol, and there is a severe thunderstorm warning for the band of heavy rain/storms on the north side of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 Might have a bit of a meh outcome around here with heaviest band of rain west and strongest winds south. Updated LOT afd mentioned the possibility of a period of 50+ mph winds in the southern cwa but no wind advisory yet.We were very open to issuing a wind advisory for southern CWA but ILX, IND and IWX still preferred to hold off. Given the run to run consistency of the HRRR for a corridor of 40-50+kt gusts tonight, I was surprised the neighbors didn't want to issue an advisory. Could very well have high wind warning type impacts if the HRRR comes to fruition. 18z RAP has a large area of 50+ kt winds at 925 mb spreading across central IL and IN. Forecast soundings suggest that there will be sufficient mixing to tap into the high winds aloft, with cold advection and very strong pressure rises immediately following the surface low. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 Last October all over again coming up in the final days of this month! Even Halloween is a repeat of last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 I took this picture of the neighbor's sycamore tree because I thought that was Indiana's state tree. Come to find out that the tulip tree is the state tree not the sycamore. The sycamore is on the state seal though. Regardless, here is how muted the colors are here... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 3 hours ago, bowtie` said: I took this picture of the neighbor's sycamore tree because I thought that was Indiana's state tree. Come to find out that the tulip tree is the state tree not the sycamore. The sycamore is on the state seal though. Regardless, here is how muted the colors are here... I've got a huge sugar maple in my yard and that thing is just fabulous every fall with flaming red and bright fire orange (I also tap it for syrup). This is the first year in the 7 years I've been here that its not stood out. Still nice but definitely not up to it's normal grandeur. I've noticed also that the oaks and sycamores around here aren't performing at all. Even the redbuds and tulips are going straight to brown. There are patches of maples, especially up around the Wabash river valley that are putting on a show. But for the most part this fall isnt up to Bob Ross's standards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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