bowtie` Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Looks like the best color will be right out my front door at the library... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2019 Author Share Posted October 23, 2019 Regardless of how we get there, it looks like a good bet that Halloween will be fairly chilly this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2019 Author Share Posted October 23, 2019 On 10/22/2019 at 1:03 PM, Hoosier said: Models are still not agreeing on how to handle the upcoming system. The foreign models want to cut off energy which results in a slower progression of things, while the NAM and GFS have been resisting the cutoff idea. This is like only 2 1/2 days until it cuts off (or not) so we aren't talking about something way out in the future. Usually it seems like the American model camp loses out when we have this kind of model separation but we shall see. Have seen a hard shift by the NAM/GFS toward the slower idea, but it appears the other models may have been a bit too slow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2019 Author Share Posted October 24, 2019 The weekend system may even ingest a possible tropical remnant (hasn't developed yet). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 55 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The weekend system may even ingest a possible tropical remnant (hasn't developed yet). Definitely not a slam dunk, but it could add some juice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2019 Author Share Posted October 24, 2019 11 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Definitely not a slam dunk, but it could add some juice Most models have something down there. On the 12z Euro rolling in you can see a landfall on the Louisiana coast around 48 hrs. Would be fairly late in the season to get something that far west in the Gulf but has happened before. Fortunately for them it has limited time to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2019 Author Share Posted October 24, 2019 The models that entrain the tropical system better have a deeper surface low once it gets into our region. Probably not a coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 The models that entrain the tropical system better have a deeper surface low once it gets into our region. Probably not a coincidence.Can easily see the tropical connection on the pwat plume on the 12z Euro. Intense 850 mb LLJ in the warm conveyor. Impressive rain event locally modeled by the 12z Euro. Would imagine with the magnitude of the WAA and near record high pwats that embedded thunderstorms could occur due to slantwise instability in the comma head. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2019 Author Share Posted October 24, 2019 47 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Can easily see the tropical connection on the pwat plume on the 12z Euro. Intense 850 mb LLJ in the warm conveyor. Impressive rain event locally modeled by the 12z Euro. Would imagine with the magnitude of the WAA and near record high pwats that embedded thunderstorms could occur due to slantwise instability in the comma head. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Raw day too. From possible frost in the morning to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 19 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Raw day too. From possible frost in the morning to that. Yep, noted the same thing. Cold morning just proceeding the incoming wave. Don't see that every day around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2019 Author Share Posted October 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Yep, noted the same thing. Cold morning just proceeding the incoming wave. Don't see that every day around these parts. Hoping the tropical system gets a name. That would be kind of cool to have a frost (maybe even freeze?) on the same day as that. At least something to pass the time as big bertha looms next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 Things get muddled as the potential tropical system comes into play and merges, but it appears like this is trying to maintain it as a distinct identity perhaps? Or the models could be getting it confused with the non tropical system. Who knows lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 49 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Things get muddled as the potential tropical system comes into play and merges, but it appears like this is trying to maintain it as a distinct identity perhaps? Or the models could be getting it confused with the non tropical system. Who knows lol Bring it on, I love a good tropical rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 I tell you what... it would've been interesting to entrain a legit hurricane into this. The system is hauling and it only takes about 12-15 hours to move from the Louisiana coast to IL/IN. That would not have offered a lot of time to spin down a hurricane wind field, especially those winds aloft. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 We all want to see climo not rule, don't we? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 We all want to see climo not rule, don't we?That’s actually very interesting.Even thought it’s later in the season and more significant troughs would hinder further north/west tracks...would have figured there would have been at least a few up into the region this late.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 gonna manage another 1-2 from the remnants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 8 hours ago, Hoosier said: I tell you what... it would've been interesting to entrain a legit hurricane into this. The system is hauling and it only takes about 12-15 hours to move from the Louisiana coast to IL/IN. That would not have offered a lot of time to spin down a hurricane wind field, especially those winds aloft. Something like this happened back in the 50's. Brought hurricane gusts to downtown Detroit it raced north so fast. Blew windows out of buildings and such. #crazystuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 15 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Something like this happened back in the 50's. Brought hurricane gusts to downtown Detroit it raced north so fast. Blew windows out of buildings and such. #crazystuff I think you are thinking of the September 1941 hurricane. Made landfall in Texas and quickly moved northeastward. There are some other examples of windy remnant systems like the 1900 Galveston hurricane and Ike but doesn't happen too often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 Fwiw, NHC now classifying it as a depression with some chance of strengthening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 Quick peek at the 12z RGEM and it's interesting. Don't know if it's right but it actually deepens the system to sub 990 mb in IL tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 If the deeper solution does verify, could see a burst of enhanced winds immediately in advance of and behind the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Quick peek at the 12z RGEM and it's interesting. Don't know if it's right but it actually deepens the system to sub 990 mb in IL tomorrow. The RGEM is on its own. The other guidance doesn't drop it below around 995. Either way, copious moisture will accompany it. Downstate IL is a lock for widespread 2+" with the NAM (of course) bringing those amounts up into ORD land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 15 minutes ago, IWXwx said: The RGEM is on its own. The other guidance doesn't drop it below around 995. Either way, copious moisture will accompany it. Downstate IL is a lock for widespread 2+" with the NAM (of course) bringing those amounts up into ORD land. RGEM is the deepest but the Ukie does get it down to 990 mb on the better maps. At first I was wondering about some convective feedback problem on the RGEM but not sure. The trough interaction with this remnant system would make me not want to rule out something on the deeper side but the RGEM could be too extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: RGEM is the deepest but the Ukie does get it down to 992 mb. At first I was wondering about some convective feedback problem on the RGEM but not sure. The trough interaction with this remnant system would make me not want to rule out something on the deeper side but the RGEM could be too extreme. I didn't check the uncle, but you have a good point. I'd put the lawn chairs and trash cans away just to be safe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 Here are the RGEM 925 mb winds... this is just for illustration as a weaker system would obviously have weaker wind fields. But notice the stronger flow near the circulation and then a pocket of stronger winds develops on the southern side. That would be the area to watch for better mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 We had our first dip into the upper 20s with heavy frost this morning. The leaves of my small maple tree and my neighbor's large maple tree are pouring down pretty good this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Here are the RGEM 925 mb winds... this is just for illustration as a weaker system would obviously have weaker wind fields. But notice the stronger flow near the circulation and then a pocket of stronger winds develops on the southern side. That would be the area to watch for better mixing. Thanks for posting that. I just looked at the surface winds on the model. (I was looking at Tropical Tidbits, which doesn't offer the 925 mb map). It does depict a pocket of stronger surface winds just south/south east of the low, especially as it bottoms out, but the 10 meter map doesn't show those winds mixing as readily to the surface (only 25-30 mph) as it moves into northern IN/IL and pressures begin to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: We had our first dip into the upper 20s with heavy frost this morning. The leaves of my small maple tree and my neighbor's large maple tree are pouring down pretty good this morning. We haven't had an extended period of 20's out here yet. I still have romaine and green peppers growing in my garden. I may have to pick them early next week though as we might see a freeze later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 12z Euro is on the deep side Seems like what we're seeing is deepening into IL and then gradual filling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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