WEATHER53 Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 On 11/6/2019 at 7:17 PM, Isotherm said: My outlook can be read here: [also posted on the main board] http://www.lightinthestorm.com/ Thank you so much Different than mine temp wise but neither of us think much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 I think things are underway, First the shift to wet in October and now temps looking colder. Pattern changes and can last 2/3 months around DC which fits with my outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 14, 2019 Author Share Posted November 14, 2019 So Isotherm and Matt go mild with around average snow, I agree with snow but think colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 11 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: So Isotherm and Matt go mild with around average snow, I agree with snow but think colder. Yeah. Your outlook is interesting and no doubt could come to fruition. I do think we’ll see quite a bit of blocking this winter, so my warmth could be overdone. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 15, 2019 Author Share Posted November 15, 2019 11 hours ago, Deck Pic said: Yeah. Your outlook is interesting and no doubt could come to fruition. I do think we’ll see quite a bit of blocking this winter, so my warmth could be overdone. Your write up was so good. Technical enough for us and a more general way of explaining also that public will understand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 17, 2019 Author Share Posted November 17, 2019 Right now think my analogs look very good into, and I think thru,December. Some good long rangers had mid Atlantic shifting mild again after 15-19Th Nov and I don’t see that, in fact the opposite. i want to comment on our method of choosing specific occurrent weather from the March into Sept time frame of the year preceding the winter for the long range we issue in Sept. We have believed since 1980 that this period sets the tone for the winter. The trick is what occurrences do you emphasize the most or least. Also, we do not believe nor state that a, just as an example, very cool June followed by a very dry July and August CAUSES a cold but not very snowy winter but we do say that if 80% of the time since 1945 that was the winter outcome then that probably is the foundation of the outlook and we compare, or perhaps contrast, that with other events of the March-Sept time period to complete the outlook. i know I am a distinct minority but I think all of the indexes are mainly alphabet soup, many just a decade or so in existence, largely unproven. I think the pattern causes them and they not the pattern but what does cause the pattern is still Gods mystery. Now, high pressure does have to be in the right place to deliver the cold so there are some requirements. I think the indexes are the seasoning on the meat but not the meat. Any question please just ask. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 Our daughters babies came we are the grandparents of twins, girl and boy. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Our daughters babies came we are the grandparents of twins, girl and boy. congrats 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 27 minutes ago, yoda said: congrats Yes thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 10/3/2019 at 6:11 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said: The two winters that seem to match the anomalous fall heat/drought best so far to me are 1930/31 and 1941/42- both of those winters were warm and snowless until they flipped (in a big way) in March. The 31/32 winter was also similar- though it wasn't much snow, the pattern also changed in March. This is just my wild guess, but I'd be inclined to go with a very back-loaded winter. I'm probably going really low in the snowfall contest unless I see something change. God damn this post was sooo good! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 The two winters that seem to match the anomalous fall heat/drought best so far to me are 1930/31 and 1941/42- both of those winters were warm and snowless until they flipped (in a big way) in March. The 31/32 winter was also similar- though it wasn't much snow, the pattern also changed in March. This is just my wild guess, but I'd be inclined to go with a very back-loaded winter. I'm probably going really low in the snowfall contest unless I see something change.Wow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: God damn this post was sooo good! Damn dude the reaper may have taken you too soon. Your post could be potentially spot-on. So should we punt Feb and prepare for a March to remember? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 23 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Damn dude the reaper may have taken you too soon. Your post could be potentially spot-on. So should we punt Feb and prepare for a March to remember? I've been out on February for a long time. In most of the fall seasons that I found similar to 2019, the pattern generally persisted until March and then flipped. March has a chance but like I said last fall, I wouldn't be hanging my weenie hat on a one-in-a-million HECS save like 1942. Some paltry snow event that melts in an hour is more likely. I wanted to be reaped early on because getting some event in March isn't enough to save it for me (but might be enough to have me win the snowfall contest lol). After I made that post in October, I became even more concerned with how dry November was- having precip less than 2" at BWI and DCA is one of the best leading indicators of an impending dumpster fire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 9/23/2019 at 2:30 PM, WEATHER53 said: Not a bad winter for cold and snow lovers Dec: -2 to -3 Jan:-3 to -5 Feb :+2 to +4 Overall: -1 to -1.5 Snowfall DCA:12-16” Suburbs:15-20” Analog years 1955(56), 1960(61), 1999(2000), 2003(04), 2010(11), 2018(19) i think it’s around average or slightly mild thru mid December and then becomes very cold thru late January before a dramatic flip to milder temps thru February. Looking forward to reading other outlooks So far DCA was DEC +2.4 JAN +6.5 Less than 1" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 This aged pretty well. Good call by Prince Frederick though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16, 2020 Author Share Posted February 16, 2020 My outlook was bad got Feb temps right but missed Dec and Jan and winter as a whole. Had the right idea about less than average snow Think Matt and Isotherm did much better on temps but also think they had at or above average snowfall Truth is I thought we would be cold for Dec thru mid/late Jan and then quite mild We ended up being cold 30 days earlier, November into mid Dec. i dont know if “wasting the cold” is valid or not but this has been a case for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Think Matt and Isotherm did much better on temps but also think they had at or above average snowfall Believe @Isotherm went with below average seasonal snowfall, with any significant snowfall in late Feb and March. What about Kieth Allen 's forecast? Thought he went super warm and little snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 That is correct. Warmer than normal and below average snowfall. Here were the snowfall ranges from my outlook for the Mid-Atlantic region: Baltimore, MD: 7-15” Washington DC: 5-13” Richmond, VA: 3-11” It appears we may struggle to reach the low-end of my ranges for those locations. I do think there is a window for one event near the beginning of March +/- a few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 3:44 PM, leesburg 04 said: So far DCA was DEC +2.4 JAN +6.5 Less than 1" of snow February sits at +7 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 18, 2020 Author Share Posted February 18, 2020 On 2/16/2020 at 6:38 PM, Isotherm said: That is correct. Warmer than normal and below average snowfall. Here were the snowfall ranges from my outlook for the Mid-Atlantic region: Baltimore, MD: 7-15” Washington DC: 5-13” Richmond, VA: 3-11” It appears we may struggle to reach the low-end of my ranges for those locations. I do think there is a window for one event near the beginning of March +/- a few days. Ok then even better once again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 12:32 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Damn dude the reaper may have taken you too soon. Your post could be potentially spot-on. So should we punt Feb and prepare for a March to remember? march will be one for the record books, in terms of unusual cold and unusual deep snows for the Washington Metropolitan Region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2020 Author Share Posted March 2, 2020 Well it was s lousy outlook Missed temps on 2 of 3 months and missed the overall. Each month is a 1x and the overall a 3x so I had only one element out of 6 correct snowfall call average as had that at or below average snd it was well below average Matt-what was yours again please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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