WEATHER 53 Winter Outlook

[WEATHER53]

Not a bad winter for cold and snow lovers

Dec: -2 to -3

Jan:-3 to -5

Feb :+2 to +4

Overall: -1 to -1.5

Snowfall

DCA:12-16”

Suburbs:15-20”

Analog years

1955(56), 1960(61), 1999(2000), 2003(04), 2010(11), 2018(19)

i think it’s around average or slightly mild thru  mid December and then becomes very cold thru late January before a dramatic flip to milder temps thru February.

Looking  forward to reading  other outlooks 

 

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Front loaded winter.  I'd sign on for this in a heartbeat.

[JakkelWx]

I predict no snow from April through November next year.

[Cobalt]

20 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Front loaded winter.  I'd sign on for this in a heartbeat.

I've heard 2004-05 thrown around somewhat as an analog. I remember seeing that was front loaded as well. How did the immediate DC area fare? All I remember seeing is a KU event that mainly targeted away from DC

 

[09-10 analogy]

On 9/23/2019 at 3:09 PM, Cobalt said:

I've heard 2004-05 thrown around somewhat as an analog. I remember seeing that was front loaded as well. How did the immediate DC area fare? All I remember seeing is a KU event that mainly targeted away from DC.

 

 

That's probably the January 2005 snowstorm. One of the great screwjobs in DC history. Probably a Miller B deal: NYC and Philly both got a foot, NE/Boston got a historic monster, Baltimore may have eked out a few inches. DC got squat; textbook middle finger event around here.  

I'll take the 99-00 analog. Great last part of January.. 

Just looked up the 2004-5 season. DCA got 12.5". There have been much worse. But that doesn't begin to alleviate the pain of the kind of shafting Jan 21-22 2005 delivered. 99-00 delivered 15.4, not much more than 04-05, but it included the Big Honking Surprise of Jan 25, which to me boosts my estimation of that winter higher than the seasonal total would warrant.  

[Cobalt]

1 hour ago, 09-10 analogy said:

That's probably the January 2005 snowstorm. One of the great screwjobs in DC history. Probably a Miller B deal: NYC and Philly both got a foot, NE/Boston got a historic monster, Baltimore may have eked out a few inches. DC got squat; textbook middle finger event around here.  

I'll take the 99-00 analog. Great last part of January.. 

Just looked up the 2004-5 season. DCA got 12.5". There have been much worse. But that doesn't begin to alleviate the pain of the kind of shafting Jan 21-22 2005 delivered. 99-00 delivered 15.4, not much more than 04-05, but it included the Big Honking Surprise of Jan 25, which to me boosts my estimation of that winter higher than the seasonal total would warrant.  

Oh sorry, I meant 03-04. I was thinking of an early December event. I know that 04-05 was big for Boston but didn't do much here.

[Winter Wizard]

On 9/23/2019 at 3:09 PM, Cobalt said:

I've heard 2004-05 thrown around somewhat as an analog. I remember seeing that was front loaded as well. How did the immediate DC area fare? All I remember seeing is a KU event that mainly targeted away from DC

 

That was a backloaded winter if anything, which is typical of weak El Ninos. 

DCA temps and snowfall by month:

DEC: +0.4 (0.1")
JAN: +0.1 (6.4")
FEB: +0.6 (5.2")
MAR: -3.7 (0.8")

Big storms that winter were the KU in January 2005 and back to back coastal storms in late Feb. January 2005 was a classic Miller B screwjob for the DC/Baltimore metro that crushed everyone north and east of Cecil. February 24-25 was a fast moving coastal that brought a wide swath of 6+" to Maryland east of DC although DC itself was a relative min. I don't recall the exact details of February 28-March 1, but I believe this was a storm where the primary low redeveloped too late, which kept the heaviest the snow well north and east of the metro.

So as a result, it ended up being an average winter for DC and Baltimore, above average for Philly and NYC, and an all timer for Long Island and SNE including Boston.

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

That was a backloaded winter if anything, which is typical of weak El Ninos. 

DCA temps and snowfall by month:

DEC: +0.4 (0.1")
JAN: +0.1 (6.4")
FEB: +0.6 (5.2")
MAR: -3.7 (0.8")

Big storms that winter were the KU in January 2005 and back to back coastal storms in late Feb. January 2005 was a classic Miller B screwjob for the DC/Baltimore metro that crushed everyone north and east of Cecil. February 24-25 was a fast moving coastal that brought a wide swath of 6+" to Maryland east of DC although DC itself was a relative min. I don't recall the exact details of February 28-March 1, but I believe this was a storm where the primary low redeveloped too late, which kept the heaviest the snow well north and east of the metro.

So as a result, it ended up being an average winter for DC and Baltimore, above average for Philly and NYC, and an all timer for Long Island and SNE including Boston.

Read above. Mistook 04-05 for 04-03. I remember seeing a real neat video showing a nation radar loop for that entire winter of 04-05. IIRC, there was quite the potent southern slider around Christmas? Pretty sure nobody in the immediate region was affected. 

[smokeybandit]

I'm not sure that's a good outlook for snow lovers.

[Winter Wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Read above. Mistook 04-05 for 04-03. I remember seeing a real neat video showing a nation radar loop for that entire winter of 04-05. IIRC, there was quite the potent southern slider around Christmas? Pretty sure nobody in the immediate region was affected. 

Yup that one was a coastal that was way too far east for us. But brought a swath of 6+" to Norfolk/Virginia Beach to Chincoteague as well as eastern Long Island and Mass. Looks like DC didn't even see flakes from that one. 

[Sparky]

Winter 04-05 wasn't terrible out this way.  Got 7" in the January Miller B storm and 32" total for the winter.

[Sparky]

03-04 was even better out here.  Very cold with 35.5" total.   

[mattie g]

20 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

I'm not sure that's a good outlook for snow lovers.

So take some darts and throw them at a dart board with various winter outcomes pinned to it. You'll (maybe) eventually hit one that you like...and it will mean basically as much as any forecasts put out there at this point.

Fun discussion points, but not really worth much more than that, in my opinion.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

On 9/23/2019 at 2:30 PM, WEATHER53 said:

Not a bad winter for cold and snow lovers

Dec: -2 to -3

Jan:-3 to -5

Feb :+2 to +4

Overall: -1 to -1.5

Snowfall

DCA:12-16”

Suburbs:15-20”

Analog years

1955(56), 1960(61), 1999(2000), 2003(04), 2010(11), 2018(19)

i think it’s around average or slightly mild thru  mid December and then becomes very cold thru late January before a dramatic flip to milder temps thru February.

Looking  forward to reading  other outlooks 

 

 

I’m curious as to how you pick analogs, as those range from strong La Nina to weak El Nino. It doesn’t seem like you weight ENSO much- what would you say are the most important factors in making your forecast?

[WEATHER53]

On 9/26/2019 at 9:12 AM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I’m curious as to how you pick analogs, as those range from strong La Nina to weak El Nino. It doesn’t seem like you weight ENSO much- what would you say are the most important factors in making your forecast?

Certain occurrent weather from about March thru August.  Once that is obtained we “flavor” that with the Enso but we do not start with the Enso as determinant 

[ldub23]

Best winter forecaster!!

[WEATHER53]

Very early October heat matches well to the cold Dec and Jan, mild Feb. decent snow season analogs.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

The two winters that seem to match the anomalous fall heat/drought best so far to me are 1930/31 and 1941/42- both of those winters were warm and snowless until they flipped (in a big way) in March. The 31/32 winter was also similar- though it wasn't much snow, the pattern also changed in March. This is just my wild guess, but I'd be inclined to go with a very back-loaded winter. I'm probably going really low in the snowfall contest unless I see something change.

[Maestrobjwa]

On 10/3/2019 at 6:11 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

The two winters that seem to match the anomalous fall heat/drought best so far to me are 1930/31 and 1941/42- both of those winters were warm and snowless until they flipped (in a big way) in March. The 31/32 winter was also similar- though it wasn't much snow, the pattern also changed in March. This is just my wild guess, but I'd be inclined to go with a very back-loaded winter. I'm probably going really low in the snowfall contest unless I see something change.

Not sure how much you can count 1941/42...The only reason for those 21 inches is because of that highly anomalous Palm Sunday blizzard. Don't want to have to rely on a redux of that! (and 1930/31...to have that tiny amount of snow to only get 10 in march doesn't seem worth the wait) So overall...that would be a recipe for mediocrity...("very backloaded" is tough to bet on...let's hope that's not the case!)

[WEATHER53]

I like to stick with DCA as the temp comparative even with it flaws. Reason is start using records from before then and it’s different locations and vastly different population and development 

Some of this record heat has 86 characteristics and that 87 was The winter it snowed every time there was a chance.  

[Roger Smith]

I think that if there are some potent cold shots early in the season (Oct-Nov) it may signal a variable winter to follow, as is often the case, with roughly equal mild or cold spells in the main winter months. I've said elsewhere that the most likely storm track this winter would be something like OK-TN-MD/sPA-seMA and this would imply a variety of storm types for the Mid Atlantic region. The odds would favour one or perhaps two significant winter storms for your region but the core of above normal snowfalls would be north of that storm track, for the northeast, inland PA, n NJ, most of NY and New England. This is of course just amplifying the normal regional outcome, but within that framework, at least I;m not seeing much chance of a blowtorch or dry winter.

[Rhino16]

11 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I think that if there are some potent cold shots early in the season (Oct-Nov) it may signal a variable winter to follow, as is often the case, with roughly equal mild or cold spells in the main winter months. I've said elsewhere that the most likely storm track this winter would be something like OK-TN-MD/sPA-seMA and this would imply a variety of storm types for the Mid Atlantic region. The odds would favour one or perhaps two significant winter storms for your region but the core of above normal snowfalls would be north of that storm track, for the northeast, inland PA, n NJ, most of NY and New England. This is of course just amplifying the normal regional outcome, but within that framework, at least I;m not seeing much chance of a blowtorch or dry winter.

What are some examples (or where may I find some) of that storm track? Just want to see for future reference.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

On 10/4/2019 at 10:07 PM, WEATHER53 said:

I like to stick with DCA as the temp comparative even with it flaws. Reason is start using records from before then and it’s different locations and vastly different population and development 

Some of this record heat has 86 characteristics and that 87 was The winter it snowed every time there was a chance.  

You're right so far, but '86 flipped to colder and wet in November- we'll have to see. But 86/87 was kinda back-loaded too- it didn't start snowing until the double-whammy storms of late January.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

On 10/4/2019 at 7:59 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Not sure how much you can count 1941/42...The only reason for those 21 inches is because of that highly anomalous Palm Sunday blizzard. Don't want to have to rely on a redux of that! (and 1930/31...to have that tiny amount of snow to only get 10 in march doesn't seem worth the wait) So overall...that would be a recipe for mediocrity...("very backloaded" is tough to bet on...let's hope that's not the case!)

Yeah, I’m not banking on a one-in-a-million HECS to save us in late March, hence why I’d tend to go very low for snowfall unless I see changes. Both those winters were dumpster fires if the March events are excluded.

[Isotherm]

My outlook can be read here:

[also posted on the main board]

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

[WxUSAF]

29 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

My outlook can be read here:

[also posted on the main board]

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Appreciate your thoughts. Hope you’re wrong, but appreciate your thoughts nonetheless. 

Certainly impossible to deny that the SE ridge has been dominant this year and that winter +NAO has been a decadal trend. 

What do your analogs show for November? Did they suggest the cold pattern that seems likely to last the first 2-3 weeks of the month at least. 

[Maestrobjwa]

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Appreciate your thoughts. Hope you’re wrong, but appreciate your thoughts nonetheless. 

Certainly impossible to deny that the SE ridge has been dominant this year and that winter +NAO has been a decadal trend. 

What do your analogs show for November? Did they suggest the cold pattern that seems likely to last the first 2-3 weeks of the month at least. 

Yeah that's unfortunate...who knows when we can crack that 20-inch mark again! (But if the NAO cycle is decadal...and we are near solar minimum...I hope that betters our odds for finally breaking the streak next year. I say next year based on the loose theory of the solar minimum to -NAO correlation has a lag effect sometimes...or so I've heard on here, lol)

[aldie 22]

2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

My outlook can be read here:

[also posted on the main board]

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

I'm rooting for the 20%  

[Isotherm]

17 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Appreciate your thoughts. Hope you’re wrong, but appreciate your thoughts nonetheless. 

Certainly impossible to deny that the SE ridge has been dominant this year and that winter +NAO has been a decadal trend. 

What do your analogs show for November? Did they suggest the cold pattern that seems likely to last the first 2-3 weeks of the month at least. 

 

Thanks for your comments. Re November, most of them showed an amplified Pacific ridge w/ some Arctic assist, and a cooler pattern across the North/east, not too dissimilar from this year. The November amplification is quite common within a backdrop of more negative AAM.

[frd]

1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

 

Thanks for your comments. Re November, most of them showed an amplified Pacific ridge w/ some Arctic assist, and a cooler pattern across the North/east, not too dissimilar from this year. The November amplification is quite common within a backdrop of more negative AAM.

I know you touched on this already, to a degree, but do you have specific research that shows in this semi-new climate  era from say 2010, that when November is winter-like then the winter attempts to mirror that outcome in the following March as well ?  

If anything, it seems winter starts later, taken into account the November head fake and then lingers longer. The linger longer part I imagine has to do with delayed seasonal blocking and any related lag effects from possible PV weakening. 

Last March many thought it was going to deliver, but it really didn't to the full potential some said it would, but oh boy April was cold. The year before was an epic March

I even think the maturing of the event was responsible for the less hot June and July, relatively speaking.   

Thanks