Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 BWI 11/11 IAD 10/31 DCA 11/17 RIC 11/11 Tie Rainfall 10.10" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 BWI: 11/3 DCA: 11/3 IAD: 11/3 RIC: 11/23 Tiebreaker: 7.46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 BWI 11/13 IAD 11/13 DCA 11/14 RIC 11/14 Tie Rainfall 8.17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 1, 2019 Author Share Posted October 1, 2019 3 more hours! Get your entries in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 BWI 11/1 IAD 10/31 DCA 11/21 RIC 11/1 Tie Rainfall 8.92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 On 9/28/2019 at 8:55 PM, George BM said: IAD: 1/20 DCA: 1/20 BWI: 1/20 RIC: 1/20 Oct Precip: 99.76" Update: IAD: 10/25 DCA: 11/03 BWI: 10/25 RIC: 11/03 Oct Precip: 24.76" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 9, 2019 Author Share Posted October 9, 2019 Unlocking so we can chat about freezes as this gets more plausible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Unlocking so we can chat about freezes as this gets more plausible Should be able to combine it with discussions of New Years plans. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Where is the chart? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Oops, no tie-breaker. But I don;t foresee being tied so there you go. Not looking too bad on the long-range charts for an early end to frost-free season, question might be, would all four go at the same time? Takes a fairly potent cold shot to do that, I would assume, with DCA in such a warmed up location and RIC further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 On 10/10/2019 at 8:57 PM, Roger Smith said: Oops, no tie-breaker. But I don;t foresee being tied so there you go. Not looking too bad on the long-range charts for an early end to frost-free season, question might be, would all four go at the same time? Takes a fairly potent cold shot to do that, I would assume, with DCA in such a warmed up location and RIC further south. RIC sits in a pretty good cooling spot, they can hit a freeze pretty early some years when others around don't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 17, 2019 Author Share Posted October 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like Saturday morning could be it for some n+w burbs. Yeah, I've been looking ahead and forgot to pay much attention to this weekend. Maybe IAD too? 3k NAM would suggest so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Croosposting from obs... outside the beltway threat for the 19th; Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Stafford- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Falmouth, Warrenton, Turnbull, Hightown, Monterey, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 315 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures around 33 to 36 degrees resulting in areas of frost. * WHERE...Central Maryland, northern and central Virginia, and the Potomac Highlands. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 2 hours ago, arlwx said: ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures around 33 to 36 degrees resulting in areas of frost. * WHERE...Central Maryland, northern and central Virginia, and the Potomac Highlands. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. Taking the over for 90% of the mentioned areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 On 10/14/2019 at 8:09 AM, wxdude64 said: RIC sits in a pretty good cooling spot, they can hit a freeze pretty early some years when others around don't. Interestingly, RIC reached 37 this morning which is the lowest of the season for all 4 airports. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 18, 2019 Author Share Posted October 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Interestingly, RIC reached 37 this morning which is the lowest of the season for all 4 airports. Those in the know know that RIC usually freezes around BWIs date, not DCAs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Those in the know know that RIC usually freezes around BWIs date, not DCAs. I may be mistaken, but I feel like that hasn't been the case the last couple years...that Richmond's first freeze was near the same time as DC's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 2 hours ago, mattie g said: I may be mistaken, but I feel like that hasn't been the case the last couple years...that Richmond's first freeze was near the same time as DC's. DCA has done better relative to its average the last couple years while there has been more fluctuation at RIC. Actually, RIC has been running a 7-10 days later than average lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Dewpoints stayed up high enough for the airports to (officially) escape freezing this morning. DCA 44, BWI 39, IAD 34, RIC 39. But Manassas hit 30 and many Shenandoah Valley freezing obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 GFS is claiming next chance for a freeze may be Halloween morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 59 minutes ago, arlwx said: Dewpoints stayed up high enough for the airports to (officially) escape freezing this morning. DCA 44, BWI 39, IAD 34, RIC 39. But Manassas hit 30 and many Shenandoah Valley freezing obs. None were even close except Dulles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 4 hours ago, arlwx said: Dewpoints stayed up high enough for the airports to (officially) escape freezing this morning. DCA 44, BWI 39, IAD 34, RIC 39. But Manassas hit 30 and many Shenandoah Valley freezing obs. IAD actually hit 33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 38 here for low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 GFS is claiming cold shots may show up the mornings of 10/31, 1/1, 11/5 and 11/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 hour ago, arlwx said: GFS is claiming cold shots may show up the mornings of 10/31, 1/1, 11/5 and 11/6. Looks like it will get chilly after Halloween, but gfs clearly has a major cold bias in the long range. Wait until things get inside D5, and show up in the euro, before getting confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Looks like it will get chilly after Halloween, but gfs clearly has a major cold bias in the long range. Wait until things get inside D5, and show up in the euro, before getting confident. On another forum one met claimed the GFS should not even be used. Stated that by incorporating the GFS into your forecast for your clients it reduces your overall performance and accuracy. I know yesterday I posted about verification against the Euro, but when I read that comment I was surprised. Seems the general idea is the GFS is extremely cold biased, reacts slowly to changes and when you have time periods such as this where we are transitioning between seasons it does badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 On 9/23/2019 at 1:36 PM, H2O said: My entries for all 4: Never This is based on current fall pattern that says summer will continue forever. solid call so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 43 minutes ago, H2O said: solid call so far You’re tied for the lead!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 "Well, young'uns, back in MY day, there was this thing called "31 degrees". I know, I know, seems impossible to believe..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 Ggem and gfs just casually 17F apart for Saturday morning. Ggem has bwi down to 26, gfs at 43. Last nights euro was 35. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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