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Mid-Atlantic First Freeze Contest 2019


WxUSAF
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  • 2 weeks later...

Oops, no tie-breaker.

But I don;t foresee being tied so there you go. 

Not looking too bad on the long-range charts for an early end to frost-free season, question might be, would all four go at the same time? Takes a fairly potent cold shot to do that, I would assume, with DCA in such a warmed up location and RIC further south.

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On 10/10/2019 at 8:57 PM, Roger Smith said:

Oops, no tie-breaker.

But I don;t foresee being tied so there you go. 

Not looking too bad on the long-range charts for an early end to frost-free season, question might be, would all four go at the same time? Takes a fairly potent cold shot to do that, I would assume, with DCA in such a warmed up location and RIC further south.

RIC sits in a pretty good cooling spot, they can hit a freeze pretty early some years when others around don't.

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Croosposting from obs... outside the beltway threat for the 19th;

Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Stafford-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland-
Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton-
Including the cities of Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg,
Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Germantown, Damascus,
Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon,
Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Staunton, Waynesboro,
Stuarts Draft, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville,
Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City,
Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon,
Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Falmouth,
Warrenton, Turnbull, Hightown, Monterey, Purcellville, Leesburg,
Ashburn, Sterling, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat,
Ruddle, and Sugar Grove
315 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures around 33 to 36 degrees resulting in areas
  of frost.

* WHERE...Central Maryland, northern and central Virginia, and
  the Potomac Highlands.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
  left uncovered.


 

 

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2 hours ago, arlwx said:

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures around 33 to 36 degrees resulting in areas
  of frost.

* WHERE...Central Maryland, northern and central Virginia, and
  the Potomac Highlands.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday.
 

 

Taking the over for 90% of the mentioned areas.

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2 hours ago, mattie g said:

I may be mistaken, but I feel like that hasn't been the case the last couple years...that Richmond's first freeze was near the same time as DC's.

DCA has done better relative to its average the last couple years while there has been more fluctuation at RIC. Actually, RIC has been running a 7-10 days later than average lately. 

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1 hour ago, arlwx said:

GFS is claiming cold shots may show up the mornings of 10/31, 1/1, 11/5 and 11/6.

Looks like it will get chilly after Halloween, but gfs clearly has a major cold bias in the long range. Wait until things get inside D5, and show up in the euro, before getting confident.

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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Looks like it will get chilly after Halloween, but gfs clearly has a major cold bias in the long range. Wait until things get inside D5, and show up in the euro, before getting confident.

On another forum one met claimed the GFS should not even be used.  Stated that by incorporating the GFS into your forecast for your clients it reduces your overall performance and accuracy. I know yesterday I posted about  verification against the Euro, but when I read that comment I was surprised.  Seems the general idea is the GFS  is extremely cold biased, reacts slowly to changes and  when you have time periods such as this where we are transitioning between seasons it does badly.  

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