Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

Major Hurricane Lorenzo


wxeyeNH
 Share

Recommended Posts

8 am interim (STILL CAT 2 and moving even faster - 32 mph) -

Quote

008 
WTNT33 KNHC 012350
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
800 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN
AZORES AS LORENZO BARRELS FASTER TOWARD THE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.8N 34.3W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 34.3 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h).  A northeastward
motion at an even faster forward speed is expected through Thursday.
The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday
night.  On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to
pass near the western Azores late tonight or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). During the past hour,
a wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) was reported at the Santa Cruz
Airport on Flores island in the western Azores.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to
1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

235157_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is exactly why I never call a storm a fish. I was out surfing the Lorenzo swell today and it was incredibly powerful. 16 second swell periods are extremely rare on the east coast. 

 

https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-search-missing-teens-rockaway-20191001-4zqaogxpdzhullj3n72tqq4mky-story.html

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 am & 5 am reports (as of 2 am, Lorenzo finally dropped to CAT 1) -

Quote

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
200 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS HITTING THE WESTERN AZORES...
...TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 31.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next couple of hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should have already been
completed. Seek shelter immediately.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 31.3 West.  Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h).  A continued fast
motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday morning.
The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday
night.  On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will be moving
away from the Azores today, and move near Ireland Thursday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when
it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390
miles (630 km).  A sustained wind of 60 mph (95 km/h) with a gust
to 85 mph (140 km/h) was recently reported at the Santa Cruz Airport
at Flores in the western Azores.  A sustained wind of 50 mph
(75 km/h) with a gust to 70 mph (110 km/h) was reported at Horta in
the central Azores.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continued within the
hurricane warning area for the next several hours.

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores through Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

 

Quote

000
WTNT33 KNHC 020834
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

...LORENZO MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.3N 29.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next couple of hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 42.3 North, longitude 29.4 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 43 mph (69 km/h).  A continued
fast motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday
morning.  The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by
Thursday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will
continue moving away from the Azores today, and move near Ireland
Thursday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it
approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390
miles (630 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Winds will continue to decrease across the Azores this
morning.

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of less than 1 inch (25 mm) through this morning.
Isolated storm total amounts of 2 inches (50 mm) are possible in the
western Azores.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

Quote

000
WTNT43 KNHC 020835
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

Lorenzo passed near Flores in the Azores a few hours ago where
hurricane-force winds, at least in gusts, were observed.  Winds
are now decreasing across those islands.  The current intensity
estimate, 75 kt, assumes only slow weakening since late yesterday.
The cloud pattern is becoming increasingly asymmetric in
appearance, suggestive that transition to an extratropical cyclone
is well underway.  The global models indicate that Lorenzo will soon
become embedded in a frontal zone, and simulated satellite imagery
from the ECMWF and GFS models show an extratropical-looking cloud
pattern later today.  The official forecast calls for a gradual
weakening trend over the next couple of days and is above the
intensity guidance.  Although the system is forecast to become
extratropical in 12 hours, it is still likely be a fairly vigorous
cyclone when it reaches Ireland late Thursday.  After crossing
England, the low is likely to dissipate over continental Europe.

Lorenzo accelerated significantly late Tuesday, and the motion is
rapidly northeastward, or 040/37 kt.  Over the next day or so,
the system should continue to move northeastward ahead of a large
mid-tropospheric trough over the north Atlantic.  Then, the cyclone
is forecast to turn eastward and a little south of eastward in the
weaker westerly flow ahead of the trough.  The official track
forecast is close to the model consensus, but leans a bit toward
the ECMWF forecast.

Lorenzo's expansive circulation is producing very large seas over
the north Atlantic.  Full information can be found in High Seas
Forecasts from the following agencies:

The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/

Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2

Key Messages:

1.  Winds across the Azores will continue to decrease, and watches
and warnings for those islands will likely be discontinued later
today.

2.  Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when
it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon or evening.

2.  Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe.  These swells
will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 42.3N  29.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 46.4N  24.1W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  03/0600Z 51.6N  16.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  03/1800Z 54.3N  11.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  04/0600Z 53.5N   6.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  05/0600Z 51.5N   3.5E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

083729_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NHC must have updated their software, I remember in the past they were unable to plot forecast points east of the Prime Meridian. Prop-tropical cyclones affecting UK in particular is that not uncommon. Ophelia did just a couple of years ago (only 6-12 hours after being declared post-tropical actually).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 am interim (still a CAT 1 and still tropical for now) -

Quote

161 
WTNT33 KNHC 021158
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
800 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

...LORENZO MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.0N 28.0W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM NNE OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

These warnings will likely be discontinued later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 28.0 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 43 mph (69 km/h).  A continued fast
motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday morning.
The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday
night.  On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will continue
moving away from the Azores today, and move near Ireland Thursday
evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it
approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390
miles (630 km). As Lorenzo passed near the western Azores earlier
this morning, a sustained wind of 74 mph (119 km/h) with a gust to
101 mph (163 km/h) was reported on Corvo Island. A wind gust of 90
mph (145 km/h) was observed on Faial Island, and a gust to 88 mph
(142 km/h) was reported on Flores Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Winds will continue to decrease across the Azores this
morning.

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of less than 1 inch (25 mm) through this morning.
Isolated storm total amounts of 2 inches (50 mm) are possible in the
western Azores.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

115942_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 am update and last advisory  (the end is nye, Lorenzo is now post-tropical) -

Quote

000
WTNT33 KNHC 021435
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Advisory Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

...LORENZO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
AND RAINFALL TO IRELAND AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.4N 25.8W
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM WSW OF CORK IRELAND
ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM WSW OF GALWAY IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has
discontinued all warnings for the Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Lorenzo was located near latitude 44.4 North, longitude 25.8 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 43 mph
(69 km/h). A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected
through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and
turn eastward and then southeastward Thursday night and Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of post-tropical Lorenzo will move
near western Ireland on Thursday, then pass over Ireland and England
on Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next day or so,
and the system is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when
it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening. A faster rate
of weakening is expected when the cyclone moves over Ireland and
England.

Lorenzo is a very large cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
For hazard information for Lorenzo in Ireland and the United Kingdom
see products issued by Met Eireann and the United Kingdom Met
Office.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-
sea/high-seas-forecast.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website
of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

Quote

000
WTNT43 KNHC 021436
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

Lorenzo has completed its transition into a powerful extratropical
cyclone and this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. The
center has become exposed on the southwestern edge of the cloud
shield, and recent ASCAT data indicate that the system has acquired
frontal features.  The initial intensity is set at 70 kt, which is
a little above the scatterometer data since there is typically a
low bias in that instrument at these wind speeds.  The global
models suggest that the post-tropical cyclone will only gradually
weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours as it approaches Ireland.  A
faster rate of weakening is expected Thursday night and Friday when
the cyclone moves southeastward over Ireland and the United Kingdom.
The low should dissipate over southeastern England by late Friday.

The cyclone continues to move rapidly northeastward or 040/37 kt,
and this general motion should continue into Thursday.  After that
time, the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and then
southeastward within an area of weaker westerly flow.  The global
model guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is
in closest to the ECMWF model.

Future hazard information on Lorenzo for Ireland and the United
Kingdom can be found in products issued by Met Eireann and the
United Kingdom Met Office.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the
website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

Lorenzo's expansive circulation is producing very large seas over
the north Atlantic.  Full information can be found in High Seas
Forecasts from the following agencies:

The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-
sea/high-seas-forecast

Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 44.4N  25.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  03/0000Z 48.6N  20.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  03/1200Z 52.8N  14.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  04/0000Z 54.0N   9.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  04/1200Z 52.5N   3.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

143913_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A historical note -

UK Met Office press release/forecast for Lorenzo - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/how-will-storm-lorenzo-affect-the-uk

Quote

How will Storm Lorenzo affect the UK?

Author: Press Office

10:58 (UTC+1) on Wed 2 Oct 2019


Our partner Met Éireann named Storm Lorenzo on Wednesday morning, (the first named storm of the 2019/2020 season named after the hurricane it started as) issuing yellow and orange wind and rain warnings for the Republic of Ireland

This low-pressure system is forecast to reach storm thresholds for the Republic of Ireland, but not elsewhere in the UK.

  • Met Éireann’s Orange wind warning has been issued for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick. It runs from 18:00 on Thursday to 03:00 on Friday. Our partner has issued Yellow wind and rain warnings for the rest of the Republic of Ireland.
  • The Met Office has issued a Yellow wind warning for parts of Northern Ireland from 15:00 to 22:00 on Thursday.
  • A separate Yellow wind warning has been issued for Cornwall and most of Devon and coastal parts of south-west Wales. This warning runs from 04:00 to 16:00 on Friday.

Storm Lorenzo will contain the remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo, which has been moving north-east through the northern Atlantic passing close to the Azores. As Lorenzo continues to move north-east it will weaken quickly and the system is expected to transition from a hurricane to an ex-tropical storm during Wednesday. Storm Lorenzo, which will become a typical deep low-pressure system, will track across Ireland on Thursday bringing the strongest winds and heaviest rain to the Republic of Ireland.

Andy Page is a Chief Meteorologist with the Met Office. He said: “By the time Storm Lorenzo reaches our latitudes it will be a low-pressure system that we're accustomed to seeing at this time of year, but our partner Met Éireann is expecting impacts from the strong winds and heavy rain to affect the Republic of Ireland. Across much of the rest of the UK we’re anticipating the impacts will be minimal, but we have issued yellow wind warnings for Northern Ireland and parts of south west England and south Wales.”

Met Éireann issued a statement on Wednesday which included the comment that ‘Storm Lorenzo will continue to accelerate north-eastwards, with its centre approaching the west of Ireland during Thursday. Lorenzo will then likely make a right turn, tracking across Ireland on Thursday night whilst it begins to gradually weaken.’

Andy Page added: “At the moment the strongest winds are expected in western Ireland, with a risk of coastal gales developing in Northern Ireland on Thursday and south Wales and south-west England on Friday.  Storm Lorenzo will also bring a spell of heavy rain to much of the UK mainly during Thursday night and the first half of Friday. 

“Our advice is to pay close attention to the weather forecast over the next couple of days and to keep an eye out for any weather warnings that may be issued in your area.” 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...