KoalaBeer Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 You have to manually set text back to black font right now. The board is defaulting to white font on a white background haha. 4 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 8 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said: These Captains should stop sailing into the eye of major hurricanes....People on twitter are saying NOAA hurricane hunters assisted with the search and rescue. https://weather.com/news/news/2019-09-28-bourbon-rhode-boat-crew-rescued-lorenzo Are my posts even showing up on here? Scroll up and let me know please. lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said: You have to manually set text back to black font right now. The board is defaulting to white font on a white background haha. Haha ok... Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 Lorenzo has reintensified to a Cat 4... 000 WTNT43 KNHC 282040 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission has been invaluable in helping us to observe reintensification after Lorenzo's eyewall replacement. The plane measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 126 kt and SFMR surface winds as high as 112 kt. In addition, the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate is 114 kt. These data support increasing the initial intensity to 115 kt, which makes Lorenzo a category 4 hurricane again. The plane also reported a circular eye 34 n mi wide and a central pressure around 950 mb. Lorenzo is moving northward, or 355/9 kt, through a gap in the subtropical ridge. The western Atlantic ridge is becoming stronger than the eastern Atlantic ridge, and this should help to nudge Lorenzo north-northeastward between 24-48 hours. After that period, a deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic should turn Lorenzo northeastward, with the hurricane's forward motion accelerating as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The updated NHC track forecast has been placed near the HCCA model and the other consensus aids, which keeps it very close to the previous official forecast, at least through day 4. Some southward adjustment of the track was made at day 5 based on the latest global model guidance. Fluctuations in Lorenzo's intensity are possible over the next day or so. However, on the whole, moderate westerly shear and decreasing oceanic heat content ahead of the hurricane are expected to contribute to a very gradual weakening trend over the next 3 days. After day 3, Lorenzo is forecast to begin interacting with an approaching cold front from the northwest, which would start extratropical transition. The global models indicate that the transition should be complete soon after 96 hours, so for the moment the advisory continues to show tropical status on day 4. Faster weakening is expected during and after extratropical transition, and the updated NHC intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the previous forecast on days 4 and 5. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 23.3N 45.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 Edit: The default text issue should be corrected now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 Anybody else noticing this? Lorenzo is bombing again. Holy crap, Batman... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Hurricane Lorenzo Special Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 The satellite presentation of Lorenzo has improved throughout this evening, and the ring of cloud tops surrounding the eye have become wider and colder. This has resulted in both subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates increasing to a 6.5 on the Dvorak scale, indicative of a 125 kt hurricane. Based on this data, a special advisory is being issued at this time to increase the initial intensity, and the 12-hour and 24-hour forecast wind speeds. No other changes were required to the previous track or intensity forecast. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0000Z 23.8N 45.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Anybody else noticing this? Lorenzo is bombing again. Holy crap, Batman...ThisSent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Special Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 ...LORENZO HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 45.0W ABOUT 1445 MI...2325 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 45.0 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Sunday, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast beginning Monday or Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will be approaching the Azores on Tuesday. Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and early Sunday. Lorenzo is expected to gradually weaken Sunday night through Tuesday, but it will remain a large and potent hurricane while it approaches the Azores. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Unable to get on the board for hours and hours and then was out most of today. Here is the MW of Lorenzo and the eye looks better - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 To say Lorenzo is impressive in the Satellite Era would be a one hell of an understatement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Ridiculous.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 The eye's still a bit ragged, otherwise I'd think cat 5 for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 It's official....Category 5 Lorenzo. Astonishing. 000 WTNT63 KNHC 290207 TCUAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1010 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 ...LORENZO STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... Recent satellite data indicate that Lorenzo has continued to rapidly strengthen to an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph (260 km/h). This increase in intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at 11 pm AST (0300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 1010 PM AST...0210 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 45.0W ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Latto 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 It's official....Category 5 Lorenzo. Astonishing.000WTNT63 KNHC 290207TCUAT3Hurricane Lorenzo Tropical Cyclone UpdateNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1320191010 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019...LORENZO STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...Recent satellite data indicate that Lorenzo has continued torapidly strengthen to an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricanewith maximum sustained winds near 160 mph (260 km/h). Thisincrease in intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at11 pm AST (0300 UTC).SUMMARY OF 1010 PM AST...0210 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...24.1N 45.0WABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM SW OF THE AZORESMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES$$Forecaster Brown/Latto New record holderSent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Reminds me of ioke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Wow Lorenzo is really impressive for it's location and the time of year, but I can't help to be a little skeptical of it being a Cat 5 right now. That eye is just a little to ragged for me despite the warm eye temp. Compared to hurricane Michael that wasn't upgraded until post season analysis...I just don't know if it fits the bill. Perhaps NHC not afraid to be a little aggressive considering it's in the middle of the Atlantic right now. Also of note Michael had higher ADT estimates but we had much more recon data throughout the storm. Lorenzo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 What the hell is with all these Cat 5s? We used to get them once in a while, sure. Hugo 89, Andrew 92, Mitch 98. But it was like...three per decade. Most "insane" storms peaked as Cat 4s. Think Georges, Floyd, Lenny, Keith, Iris, Michelle, Isidore and Lili. Ever since Isabel 2003, the last 16 years have given us 14 Category 5 hurricanes. I'm a skeptic as far as global warming and hurricanes, as the late Dr. William Gray told me personally that there was no correlation. But I am a little surprised at the surge in Cat 5 hurricanes. Is it better aircraft and satellite data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 11 pm update (Lorenzo upgraded to CAT 5 but with the 5 am, was downgraded again) - Quote ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 ...LARGE AND POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 LORENZO BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE THIS FAR NORTH AND EAST IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 44.9W ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 44.9 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the north-northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the northeast by Monday. A faster northeast motion is expected by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible through Sunday. A weakening trend is forecast to begin Sunday night. However, Lorenzo is expected to be a large and potent hurricane as is approaches the Azores in a few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto NNNN Quote ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 Lorenzo has rapidly strengthened this evening. An eyewall replacement cycle completed earlier today, with a recent SSMIS microwave overpass showing that a new eyewall about 30 n mi in diameter now completely encircles the eye. The cold cloud tops surrounding the eye have expanded, with a solid ring of temperatures measuring colder than minus 70 degrees Celsius. In addition, the eye has cleared, with satellite derived cloud-top temperatures now above 15 degrees Celsius. Throughout the evening, the objective and subjective intensity estimates have climbed, with 0130 UTC special classifications from TAFB and SAB as well as a recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimate unanimously agreeing on a 140-kt initial intensity. This makes Lorenzo an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane. The initial motion is now northward at 9 kt. Lorenzo will be steered north through a break between two subtropical ridges through tonight, with a turn to the north-northeast expected on Sunday. After Sunday, Lorenzo will begin to get caught up in increasing southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This will cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward through the end of the forecast period. The official track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and is near the middle of the consensus aids. Lorenzo will likely peak in intensity overnight as it remains in the current favorable environment. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible on Sunday mainly due to eyewall replacement cycles. By Sunday night, Lorenzo will begin to feel the effects of some southwesterly shear ahead of the approaching trough, while it also moves over waters of lower oceanic heat content. These factors should induce a steady weakening trend through 48 hours. After that time, SSTs below 26 C should cause a faster weakening trend. By 72 hours, the cyclone will begin interacting with the approaching trough and an associated cold front, which will begin a transition to an extratropical low. This transition is forecast to complete by 120 hours, but it could happen a little sooner than that. The official forecast was increased through the first 48 hours due to the increase in initial intensity, and then blends to near the previous official forecast by 72 hours. With this latest advisory intensity, Lorenzo becomes the strongest hurricane in history this far north and east in the Atlantic basin. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 24.2N 44.9W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 25.5N 44.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 27.1N 44.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 30.8N 42.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 36.7N 35.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 45.0N 23.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 52.2N 10.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto NNNN 5 am update (system has weakened) - Quote ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 ...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 44.6W ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 44.6 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the north-northeast is expected later today, followed by a faster northeast motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Lorenzo is expected to move near or just west of the Azores late Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Lorenzo is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane as it approaches the Azores. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN Quote 861 WTNT43 KNHC 290833 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 The satellite appearance of Lorenzo is not quite as impressive as it was several hours ago. Although the eye is still very distinct, the cloud tops are not as cold in the eyewall and there are a few dry slots evident beyond the inner core. The initial wind speed is lowered just slightly to 135 kt, but based on the latest satellite estimates this is probably generous. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Lorenzo later today, and the data they collect should provide a better assessment of the hurricane's intensity and structure. Very intense hurricanes like Lorenzo are usually not able to maintain their intensity for very long. Since Lorenzo will be moving toward cooler waters and into an environment of drier air and higher wind shear during the next several days, steady weakening is forecast. Lorenzo is now expected to become extratropical by day 4, when the cyclone will be over SSTs colder than 20 C. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the consensus models, IVCN, IVDR, and HCCA. Lorenzo is still moving northward at 9 kt through a break in the Atlantic subtropical ridge. A mid- to upper-level trough currently over eastern Canada is expected to amplify when it reaches the central Atlantic, which should cause Lorenzo to accelerate to the northeast during the next few days. This motion should take the core of Lorenzo near or just west of the Azores late Tuesday and Wednesday. After that time, there are significant differences in the models on whether or not Lorenzo interacts with an extratropical low over the north Atlantic. The ECMWF and UKMET models show little interaction with that low and show Lorenzo moving east-northeastward in the westerlies toward northwestern France, Ireland, and the United Kingdom. On the other hand, the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models show Lorenzo rotating around the eastern side of the low and remaining over the Atlantic. The spread in the models is incredibly large, about 1300 n mi by day 5. Given the high uncertainty at this time, only small changes were made to the NHC track forecast, and this one favors the UKMET and ECMWF solutions. However, confidence in the long-term track is very low and adjustments may be needed later today. The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch here at NHC provided input that the large wind field of Lorenzo and its expected faster forward motion in a few days will likely lead to extreme enhancement of the wave field and wave growth over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 25.1N 44.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 26.4N 44.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 29.9N 42.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 32.2N 40.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 39.4N 32.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 47.8N 20.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0600Z 53.5N 10.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Was hoping this thing would take a sharper right turn and be a possible threat to Africa, just because I can’t recall such anomalous track/intensity before. As is, watch out Ireland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Last 24 hrs MW - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Absolutely epic in every regard. Another storm that shows how far we have to go with intensity forecasts. Due to the fact that Lorenzo was moving north at the time of peak intensity it will send anomalously long period swell to the east coast. These long period swells (greater then 16 seconds) contain tremendous energy and are capable of producing beach wash overs. (And fun waves for those in the know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 8 hours ago, Floydbuster said: What the hell is with all these Cat 5s? We used to get them once in a while, sure. Hugo 89, Andrew 92, Mitch 98. But it was like...three per decade. Most "insane" storms peaked as Cat 4s. Think Georges, Floyd, Lenny, Keith, Iris, Michelle, Isidore and Lili. Ever since Isabel 2003, the last 16 years have given us 14 Category 5 hurricanes. I'm a skeptic as far as global warming and hurricanes, as the late Dr. William Gray told me personally that there was no correlation. But I am a little surprised at the surge in Cat 5 hurricanes. Is it better aircraft and satellite data? A lot of those other storms you mentioned would have probably been Cat 5’s too had they been able to survey them with today’s instruments and technology. I mean Andrew was always considered to be a Cat 4...then they upgraded it to a 5 when they analyzed the whole damage/catastrophe that was south Florida. So that tells me that many of those other Cat 4’s were probably stronger than they were thought to be too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 9 hours ago, Floydbuster said: What the hell is with all these Cat 5s? We used to get them once in a while, sure. Hugo 89, Andrew 92, Mitch 98. But it was like...three per decade. Most "insane" storms peaked as Cat 4s. Think Georges, Floyd, Lenny, Keith, Iris, Michelle, Isidore and Lili. Ever since Isabel 2003, the last 16 years have given us 14 Category 5 hurricanes. I'm a skeptic as far as global warming and hurricanes, as the late Dr. William Gray told me personally that there was no correlation. But I am a little surprised at the surge in Cat 5 hurricanes. Is it better aircraft and satellite data? It is possible that the recent large number of cat 5s has something to do with warming SSTs. I would argue that this particular storm might be the most unusual out of the bunch given the intensity it achieved at such a northeasterly position relative to past storms. This may reflect SSTs being warmer in this part of the ocean than in the past, facilitating RI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 With the exception of Dorian and Lorenzo, every other storm this season has struggled. I think it has more to do with the strength of the vort as it came off of Africa and favorable UL conditions in the Eastern Atlantic as opposed to some anomalously high SST in that area. It’s not like every wave coming off of Africa in that spot has developed, in fact it’ll likely be the only one this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Great research and forecast from Elsner back in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 There are 3 missions to Lorenzo today (one is in there - NOAA9) and 2 others en route (NOAA2 on its way & NOAA3 just took off not long ago). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 11 am update (system continues to weaken and is moving NNE) - Quote 623 WTNT33 KNHC 291455 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO... ...WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 44.4W ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 44.4 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the northeast along with an increase in forward speed should occur on Monday and continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is expected over the next few days, but Lorenzo is still expected to be a potent hurricane in a couple of days. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto Quick Links and Additional Resources Quote 000 WTNT43 KNHC 291456 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 Satellite and microwave imagery are indicating that Lorenzo is now weakening. A recent microwave pass showed a broken eyewall as well as dry air in the southwestern quadrant. Over the past hour, the eye has begun to fill in. However, outflow remains excellent and cloud tops remain very cold near the center of the hurricane. A blend of the latest CI values from TAFB and SAB as well as a recent subjective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS suggest the initial intensity is now 125 kt. Lorenzo is moving north-northeastward at 9 kt through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-latitude trough will approach Lorenzo from the west in a couple of days. Increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will force the hurricane to turn northeastward and accelerate beginning on Monday. The forecast track confidence is very high through 72 hours, and the new forecast is in good agreement with the tightly clustered consensus guidance and the previous forecast. Beyond 72 hours, the guidance now diverges significantly, likely due to how they are handling the interaction between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical cyclone near Greenland late in the forecast period. The majority of the guidance has shifted to the west by several hundred miles over the past couple of runs. However, there remains significant spread between the operational UKMET/ECMWF which take what's left of Lorenzo toward the British Isles, and the solutions that absorb the cyclone into the larger system well over 1000 miles to the west. Based on the recent shift in the models and the large spread, the official forecast was only adjusted a little to the left and lies well to the right of the consensus aids. Needless to say, the forecast track confidence beyond 72 hours is low at the moment, and may need further adjustments in the next couple of advisories. Lorenzo reached its peak intensity last night, and the intensity guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will steadily weaken over the next several days due to increasing southwesterly shear, dry air entrainment, and progressively cooler SSTs. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are still scheduled to investigate Lorenzo later today, and the data they collect should provide a better assessment of the hurricane's intensity and structure. In a few days, Lorenzo will interact with a frontal zone and begin transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. This transition is expected to be complete by 96 hours. It is important to note that although Lorenzo is forecast to weaken through the forecast period, the wind field is expected to expand at the same time, with tropical-storm-force and 50 kt winds forecast to extend over 300 n mi/ 160 n mi respectively from the center in 72 hours. The latest intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and it is near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. Earlier input from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch here at NHC indicates that the large wind field of Lorenzo and its expected faster forward motion in a few days will likely lead to extreme enhancement of the wave field and wave growth over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 25.9N 44.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 27.2N 43.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 28.9N 43.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 33.7N 38.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 42.0N 29.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 50.0N 18.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1200Z 54.9N 11.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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