Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 5 pm update (turning NW) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 262047 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...LARGE AND POWERFUL LORENZO TURNS NORTHWESTWARD... ...SWELLS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 40.8W ABOUT 1095 MI...1765 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 40.8 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible tonight, and fluctuations in intensity are expected Friday and Saturday. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo will affect portions of the northeastern coast of South Americas beginning tonight and affect portions of the Windward Islands beginning on Friday, These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 6.5 / 935.1mb / 127.0kt Putting on quite a show now... Should be nearing maximum potential intensity (MPI) soon based on SSTs and upper tropospheric temps for that region of the Atlantic. Also just read that recon is taking a training mission from Barbados out there this evening. Any wagers? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 19 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 6.5 / 935.1mb / 127.0kt Putting on quite a show now... Should be nearing maximum potential intensity (MPI) soon based on SSTs and upper tropospheric temps for that region of the Atlantic. Also just read that recon is taking a training mission from Barbados out there this evening. Any wagers? I think they find lower winds (130sh) but a deeper pressure 930ish based on its size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: 6.5 / 935.1mb / 127.0kt Putting on quite a show now... Should be nearing maximum potential intensity (MPI) soon based on SSTs and upper tropospheric temps for that region of the Atlantic. Also just read that recon is taking a training mission from Barbados out there this evening. Any wagers? They have a trip to Lorenzo scheduled for tomorrow - Quote Plan of the Day 000 NOUS42 KNHC 261533 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1135 AM EDT THU 26 SEPTEMBER 2019 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019 TCPOD NUMBER.....19-121 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. TROPICAL STORM KAREN FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75 A. 27/1800Z B. AFXXX 0812A KAREN C. 27/1500Z D. 28.0N 60.7W E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2100Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX KAREN AT 28/1800Z. 3. REMARK: THE NOAA 43 P-3 AND THE NOAA 49 G-IV WILL FLY 9- AND 8-HR RESEARCH MISSIONS, RESPECTIVELY, INTO AND AROUND HURRICANE LORENZO TOMORROW. BOTH WILL DEPART TBPB AT 27/1200Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. 3. THE NCAR/NSF G-V WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION TOMORROW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA, DEPARTING MRLB AT 27/1230Z. ALTITUDES OF 40,000-45,000 FT AND 32 DROPS. $$ SEF NNNN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 ADT SAT est. is now supportive of 130 kts. If the structure maintains and the NHC goes with that in a few hours, Lorenzo will be the strongest TC on record in the central-to-eastern Atlantic or anywhere east of 50°W longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Good grief... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Good grief... Wow, really amped the CDO the last few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Pretty nice. Looks 130-135kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 270233 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Lorenzo has intensified even more this evening, with a clear eye characterized by warm temperatures of up to 17 degrees Celsius. The eye is now completely surrounded by a ring of convection with cold cloud tops less than minus 70 degrees Celsius. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB, as well as the objective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT unanimously support increasing the initial intensity to 125 kt. Lorenzo is a very large hurricane, with tropical storm force winds extending over 200 n mi from the center in the northern semicircle, and a cirrus cloud canopy that spans greater than a 10 degree latitude by 10 degree longitude area. The initial motion is now north-northwest, or 330/12 kt. Model guidance is in very good agreement throughout the 5 day period on the future track of Lorenzo. The hurricane will move through a break in the subtropical ridge currently to its northwest over the next couple of days, gradually turning to the north then northeast as it rounds the periphery of a ridge to its east. Late in the forecast period, Lorenzo will begin to accelerate as it gets caught in southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. The model guidance made a slight shift to the left since the previous advisory, but since the same guidance shifted right earlier today, I did not want to make much of a change to the track. The official forecast track is very near the previous one, and is now on the right side of the consensus guidance. The environment around Lorenzo is expected to change little over the next day or so. Both dynamical and statistical guidance are suggesting that the hurricane is nearing peak intensity. Therefore only fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are expected through about Friday night. Over the weekend, some moderate westerly shear ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough could begin to slowly weaken the cyclone. Late in the forecast period, the combination of strong upper level southwesterly winds and cooler sea surface temperatures should cause a faster weakening trend. The official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and a little higher than most of the guidance through the first 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.6N 41.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 19.1N 42.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 21.0N 43.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 22.7N 43.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 24.4N 43.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 27.8N 41.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 31.8N 39.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 37.5N 33.2W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 11 pm update cone - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 5 am update (pressure continues to fall) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 270855 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...POWERFUL LORENZO MAINTAINING STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 42.1W ABOUT 1620 MI...2605 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 42.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible today. Slow weakening is forecast to begin by the weekend. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and will affect portions of the Windward Islands beginning today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky Quote 169 WTNT43 KNHC 270858 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Lorenzo has maintained its impressive structure in satellite imagery this morning. The hurricane still has a fairly clear eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops. A 0423 UTC AMSR2 overpass showed a small break in the deepest convection in the southwest eyewall of the hurricane, but given how cloud tops have cooled since then, I suspect that did not last long. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed substantially since the last advisory, so the initial intensity remains 125 kt. The hurricane is moving steadily north-northwestward at 12 kt. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement on Lorenzo's track and confidence in the forecast is high. Lorenzo should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. By the end of the forecast period, Lorenzo will likely accelerate northeastward ahead of mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. The official track forecast is basically unchanged since the last advisory and now sits right in the middle of the guidance envelope. The NHC intensity forecast is also mostly unchanged since the last advisory. Although SHIPS diagnostics suggest that moderate southwesterly shear could soon affect the cyclone, not much change in strength is anticipated for the next 24 hours since Lorenzo will be moving over slightly warmer waters and an eyewall replacement cycle does not seem imminent. Gradual weakening is then anticipated through early next week due to a modest increase in shear and a decrease in available ocean heat content. Short-term fluctuations in intensity related to eyewall replacement cycles are also possible during that time. The NHC forecast remains on the high side of the guidance for the first 24 hours, and is close to HCCA after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 18.6N 42.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 20.1N 42.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 21.8N 43.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 23.5N 43.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 25.1N 43.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 28.7N 41.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 33.3N 37.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 40.0N 30.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 A new satellite era record for so far east in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 11 am update (slight weakening) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 271441 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...LORENZO WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 42.9W ABOUT 1600 MI...2575 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 42.9 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected tonight or on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible today, and slow weakening is forecast to begin by the weekend. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and will affect portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning later today through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven Quote ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 The structure of Lorenzo in conventional satellite imagery has decayed a little since the last advisory, with the eye becoming less distinct and the eyewall convection becoming more asymmetric. There is no current microwave imagery to show whether this weakening might be due to the start of an eyewall replacement cycle or not. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little, so the initial intensity is reduced to 120 kt. The hurricane has excellent cirrus outflow in all directions except to the southwest. The initial motion is 330/12 kt. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy or the forecast confidence, as Lorenzo should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. By the end of the forecast period, Lorenzo is expected to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from the west. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the left of the previous track based mainly on the initial position, and it lies near the various consensus models. Lorenzo is currently passing over a tongue of slightly cooler sea surface temperatures, and it is forecast to reach slightly warmer water in 12-24 h. After that, it stays over sea surface temperatures near 28C through about 72 h. During this time, the intensity will be controlled mainly by internal eyewall replacement cycles and some ups and downs in the vertical shear as the hurricane interacts with a couple of upper-level troughs. The intensity guidance shows a slow weakening trend during this time, and the NHC intensity forecast follows this. However, it would not be surprising to see some fluctuations in intensity occur. After 72 h, the cyclone will become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and move over much colder water. This, and the approach of the aforementioned deep-layer trough, will lead to extratropical transition that will be underway, but likely not complete, by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 19.4N 42.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 20.8N 43.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 22.6N 44.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 24.2N 44.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 25.9N 43.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 29.6N 41.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 34.5N 37.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 42.5N 28.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 NOAA3 (en route) & NOAA9 (in progress going in the storm) are both working Lorenzo - (NOAA9 so far) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Too bad Lorenzo is weakening before being sampled. That would have been an excellent specimen at peak intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Good for training and sampling of atmospheric data to obs the upper tropospheric temps in that region. This could help better explain Lorenzo's MPI last night from the SSTs it traversed. Lorenzo is clearly past peak now however. I would be surprised if they still found a 125-130 kt hurricane. 110-115 kts vort msg now however would probably reinforce somewhat that it was much more powerful in the past 12 hrs based on current dropping SAT AdjT# 5.6 numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Now the interesting thing to watch is how strong it stays and where it exactly it ends up. The 12z Euro shows it slamming into England... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Developing story: NOAA recon was diverted on flight path due to ship distress signal. I knew something was odd and then I thought, "Oh no, they must be having technical issues." Nope, a ship is caught in the hurricane. They are looking for survivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 14 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Now the interesting thing to watch is how strong it stays and where it exactly it ends up. The 12z Euro shows it slamming into England... Could be like the great gale of 1988 for them. That caused prolific damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 5 pm update (Lorenzo has weakened further) - Quote 570 WTNT33 KNHC 272034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...LORENZO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT REMAINS VERY LARGE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 43.6W ABOUT 1575 MI...2535 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 43.6 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Lorenzo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. A combination of satellite wind data and reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Lorenzo remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and will affect portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning tonight through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven Quote 000 WTNT43 KNHC 272035 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 The satellite appearance of Lorenzo has degraded further since the last advisory, with only a hint of an eye still apparent in visible imagery and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall becoming very asymmetric in infrared imagery. A recent SSMI/S overpass shows that the southern portion of the eyewall has eroded, possibly due to shear or dry air intrusion. The microwave imagery also suggests an outer convective band is forming, but it is not yet well enough defined to call it an outer eyewall. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease, and the initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt as a blend of the various estimates. The hurricane continues to have excellent outflow in the northern semicircle. The initial motion remains 330/12 kt. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy or the forecast confidence, as Lorenzo should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from the west. The track guidance for this advisory, while it remains tightly clustered in direction, is a little slower than the previous guidance. Based on this, the new forecast track is just a little slower than the previous forecast. Lorenzo will be passing over sea surface temperatures of 27-28C for the next 48-72 h. However, it will be in an environment of moderate vertical shear due to an upper-level trough not far to the west. The intensity guidance responds to this by showing gradual weakening during this time, and the new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance. There is a possibility of fluctuations in intensity caused by eyewall replacement cycles superimposed on this weakening trend. After 72 h, the hurricane should encounter stronger mid-latitude westerlies, move over cooler sea surface temperatures, and eventually merge with the above-mentioned deep-layer trough. As this occurs, Lorenzo is forecast to undergo extratropical transition, with this being complete by 120 h. Current indications from the global models are that Lorenzo will retain hurricane strength through the transition. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 20.3N 43.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 21.6N 44.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 23.3N 44.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 25.0N 44.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 26.6N 43.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 30.3N 41.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 35.5N 36.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 44.0N 26.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 18z GFS still showing significant impacts in UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 RE: UK impacts... Looks like Lorenzo will have fully transitioned by then. You would need strong convection to mix down the more intense 850mb winds within the jet flow. Sure, it will be windy, but I'm not sold on strong gale force impacts by that point. The Azores on the other hand... They could get rocked depending on trajectory and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 Lorenzo is moving over a region of slightly higher SSTs for the next 24 hours. There is roughly 10kts of westerly shear interacting with hurricane, though CIMSS analysis suggests upper level southwesterly flow has weakened somewhat. There could still be some mid-level disruption going on but overall Lorenzo looks improved versus 12 hours ago. The eye has been showing up through the high cirrus canopy this morning, partially clearing out at times. However, you can make out the larger eye in place under the cirrus canopy on visible. ADT still supports a borderline Cat 3. Based on the improving structure, the NHC will probably keep it a major for at least the next advisory period, and there may even be some slight reintensification going on through this evening based on its recent improvement on satellite. Lorenzo should turn due north as the Azores ridge backs southeast the next few days. By Tuesday, the strong deep layer trough digging into the central Atlantic should turn the hurricane NE and increase its forward motion substantially. Though OHC decreases, the core will be moving fast so that the immediate surface layer temperatures will be sufficient for latent heat, however, baroclinic forcing will also be coming into play at that time. The NHC will probably keep Lorenzo above hurricane intensity all the way through the Azores and it may even deepen again due to both baroclinic and upper tropospheric forcing. Not improbable that Lorenzo could be a Cat 2 impact on the far western islands of Flores and Corvo in the Azores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 281447 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 Lorenzo appears to be in the final stages of an eyewall replacement. 37-GHz GCOM imagery from overnight suggested that a smaller inner eyewall was embedded within a larger eye, and the new eyewall now extends 40-45 n mi from the center of circulation. An eye has also reappeared in GOES-16 visible and infrared satellite imagery during the past several hours. Based on Dvorak intensity estimates of T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, and an ADT estimate of T5.3/97 kt, Lorenzo's intensity is still estimated to be 100 kt. Although the hurricane seems to be wobbling a bit, fixes indicate that it has generally turned northward with an initial motion of 350/9 kt. The track forecast remains straightforward, with very little spread among the models and their ensembles. Lorenzo is expected to be nudged north-northeastward and then northeastward starting in 36 hours by strong ridging building over the western Atlantic. The northeastward motion is expected to increase on day 3 when Lorenzo is picked up by a strong deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic, and that acceleration is forecast to continue through day 5. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids and is very similar to the previous forecast. A little bit of west-southwesterly shear continues over Lorenzo, but it's not strong enough to disrupt the circulation significantly. Only a very slow, gradual weakening is forecast during the next 3 days, matching what is indicated by many of the intensity models. Extratropical transition is expected to have begun by day 4 while Lorenzo is moving near the Azores, but that process is not expected to be complete until day 5. Although Lorenzo's winds are forecast to decrease a bit during the extratropical transition due to stronger shear and cold waters, the cyclone is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds through the end of the forecast period. Lorenzo's wind field will remain large, and the hurricane-force wind radii are expected to grow in size during the next couple of days. In addition, large swells continue to radiate outward away from the hurricane and will reach much of the western and northern side of the Atlantic basin in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 22.5N 44.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 23.8N 44.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 25.6N 44.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 27.1N 43.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 33.3N 39.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 40.5N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 51.0N 16.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 ADT back up to 6.3/6.6 for 122 kts. -80° cloudtops in the northern semicircle of the CDO. -70°C wrapping around. Though the eye still looks a bit ragged, this is likely due to leftover cloudmass from the old eyewall still rotating around inside the new. At any rate, Lorenzo looks to be reintensifying this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 Recon sampled unflagged 110 kts on second pass through the eastern eyewall -- a 10 kt increase over the first pass. I think they're going to turn after this NE pass for one more punch through the eyewall again as a dropsonde sampled 143kt just below the 850 mb level. It appears Lorenzo is deepening while they are currently investigating. It also appears Lorenzo has made its turn north and is picking up forward motion. On that heading, the eastern eyewall would hypothetically have the strongest winds and that is why recon has focused sampling there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 112 kts NE eyewall. With ADT satellite estimates at 127 kts and what appears like ongoing intensification per recon, I'd say the NHC will go with 115 kts on the 5pm advisory package. That may seem conservative, but with an expanded vortex Dvorak estimates are going to be too high in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 These Captains should stop sailing into the eye of major hurricanes....People on twitter are saying NOAA hurricane hunters assisted with the search and rescue. https://weather.com/news/news/2019-09-28-bourbon-rhode-boat-crew-rescued-lorenzo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 53 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said: These Captains should stop sailing into the eye of major hurricanes....People on twitter are saying NOAA hurricane hunters assisted with the search and rescue. https://weather.com/news/news/2019-09-28-bourbon-rhode-boat-crew-rescued-lorenzo Are my posts texts even showing up on here? Scroll up and let me know please. lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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