LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: Pinhole eye. Probably won't last long with such well-organized outer banding, which will likely lead to an ERC and a larger eye. Nothing suggestive of a change in track at this point. Still looks like a powerful central Atlantic major. Need to keep an eye on possible interaction with the Azores though. Depending on recurve trajectory could be one of their strongest impacts. I was thinking it’s only a matter of time before they have a major hit. Sitting so close to the 26c line, with that line moving north. Kind of like Hawaii. Safe in the past, screwed in the future. And this thing is going to be a prolific swell machine for the entire North Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 11 pm update (continues to strengthen) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 260235 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...LORENZO STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 38.1W ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 38.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the northwest is forecast to occur on Thursday, followed by a turn to the north by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane on Thursday, with some additional strengthening possible through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto Quote 000 WTNT43 KNHC 260235 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 A small eye has been intermittently appearing in infrared satellite imagery over the past few hours, and a recent WINDSAT microwave overpass showed that the inner-core of Lorenzo is trying to consolidate. There is still some dry air wrapping in toward the center of circulation as seen in an SSMIS overpass at 2020 UTC. This could be the reason why the hurricane has not been able to develop a well-defined eye as of yet. An ASCAT-B scatterometer pass this evening showed a still expanding wind field associated with Lorenzo, and the 50-kt winds now extend up to 90 n mi from the center in the northern semicircle. A blend of the subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support the initial intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. Based on the improving inner-core structure, large central dense overcast, and an expanding cirrus shield around the hurricane, it is believed that the dry air that has been entrained near the center will mix out soon. This should allow for the eyewall to completely develop and Lorenzo should reach major hurricane intensity within the next 24 hours. Lorenzo will continue over warm waters and in a light shear environment during the next couple of days, which should allow for some additional strengthening. By 72 hours, increasing shear due to west to southwest winds aloft ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough should begin to weaken the hurricane. The official intensity forecast is very near the previous one, and is on the high end of the guidance through 72 hours. Lorenzo is moving west-northwest at 13 kt to the south of a mid-level ridge. The model guidance is in very good agreement on a break developing in the ridge between 45W-50W in the next couple of days, which should result in a turn to the northwest. From day 3-5, the cyclone is expected to turn north then northeast around the periphery of the mid-level ridge to its east. The official forecast was nudged just a little to the right of the previous one starting at 36 h and is on the left side of tightly clustered consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 14.7N 38.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 15.2N 39.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 16.8N 41.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 20.4N 43.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 23.8N 43.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 27.5N 42.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 31.9N 39.1W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 5 am update (expected to turn to the NW today) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 260841 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...LORENZO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 39.3W ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 39.3 West. The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). Lorenzo is forecast to turn toward the northwest and begin moving at a slightly slower speed later today. A turn toward the north is then anticipated on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane later today or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky Quote 000 WTNT43 KNHC 260842 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Lorenzo's satellite appearance continues to steadily improve. The cyclone has a large central dense overcast, with outflow established in all quadrants. The hurricane has at times shown signs of a developing eye, however, it has been mostly obscured during the last few hours by expanding cloud tops associated with central (and likely eyewall) convection. Although the eye is not yet apparent in geostationary imagery, a 0618 UTC SSMIS overpass showed that Lorenzo has developed a well-defined mid-level eye. TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications both support an intensity of 90 kt but objective estimates are lower. The intensity of Lorenzo is therefore held at 85 kt as a compromise of the higher subjective and lower objective assessments, but this could be a little conservative. The hurricane is still moving west-northwestward, but a turn toward the northwest is expected later today. Lorenzo has reached a break in the subtropical ridge to the north and should now begin to gain latitude at a faster rate. By day 3, the global models show Lorenzo moving northward along the western periphery of the ridge and by the end of the period it will likely turn northeastward and accelerate ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough. While the models still differ on the details of the forecast, like how fast Lorenzo will be moving once it turns northward, they all show this general evolution. The NHC forecast is mostly an update of the previous advisory and is just west of the center of the guidance envelope. Lorenzo has several more days during which it could strengthen. The primary limiting factor appears to be the size of Lorenzo, which is considerable and is forecast to increase. This will likely only slow down Lorenzo's strengthening, not prevent it. By 72 h, Lorenzo could experience an increase in shear, and most of the guidance responds by forecasting very slow weakening. The official intensity forecast is generally close to HCCA and IVCN at all lead times and is not very different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 15.1N 39.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 16.0N 40.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.2N 43.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 24.6N 43.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 28.0N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 33.0N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 The Wisc. MIMIC page wasn't updating the past couple days but finally did and here is the latest for Lorenzo - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Very impressive intensity for so far to the east in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Just noticed that NHC had a 6 am update for Lorenzo (now deemed a major hurricane) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 261003 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Special Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 600 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...LORENZO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 39.3W ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM AST (1000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 39.3 West. The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). Lorenzo is forecast to turn toward the northwest and begin moving at a slightly slower speed later today. A turn toward the north is then anticipated on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky Quote 000 WTNT43 KNHC 261003 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Special Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 600 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Shortly after the issuance of the 0900 UTC advisory, Lorenzo's eye quickly and drastically became more apparent in conventional satellite imagery. The slightly ragged but clearing eye of the hurricane is surrounded by very cold cloud tops, and it has become clear that Lorenzo is rapidly intensifying. A 0900 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification of 6.0/6.0 (115 kt) was used as the primary basis for increasing the intensity of Lorenzo. Because objective fixes from just a few hours ago were much lower, the intensity of the hurricane has been increased, perhaps conservatively, to 110 kt. Since this is 10 kt above the previous 12-h forecast, a special advisory is required to update the intensity forecast. Additional strengthening is possible later today. Earlier intensity guidance indicated that Lorenzo's intensity should level off in a day or so, though none of the guidance correctly anticipated the rate at which the hurricane has strengthened this morning. Now that the hurricane has a closed eyewall, fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles are also possible, though this is not explicitly reflected in the updated forecast. By the end of the forecast period, the updated NHC forecast is relaxed to the original forecast and shows some gradual weakening. Further adjustments, especially at 72 h and beyond, may be required later this morning. No changes were made to the track forecast, which is based on the previous regular advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1000Z 15.2N 39.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 16.0N 40.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.2N 43.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 24.6N 43.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 28.0N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 33.0N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 NOAA Sats (CAT 3 Lorenzo) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Outflow is incredible right now. The only impingement that I see towards more strengthening is some dry air on the NW side as seen on the water vapor imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 11 am update - Now a CAT 4! Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 261452 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...LORENZO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 40.2W ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 40.2 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Lorenzo is forecast to turn toward the northwest later today, and this motion should continue through Friday. A turn toward the north is expected Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible today, and fluctuations in intensity are expected tonight through Friday night. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven Quote 501 WTNT43 KNHC 261453 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 A review of microwave satellite imagery from last night suggests that Lorenzo underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, with the outer eyewall becoming predominant around 06Z-09Z. Around that time, the hurricane started to rapidly intensify, with the eye becoming much better defined in conventional satellite imagery. Raw Data-T numbers from both subjective and objective versions of the Dvorak Technique suggest that the maximum winds have increased to near 115 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The initial wind radii have been revised based on a recently received scatterometer overpass. The initial motion is 295/11. Lorenzo is approaching a developing break in the subtropical ridge caused by a series of mid-latitude troughs to the northwest of the hurricane, and the track guidance models are in excellent agreement that Lorenzo should recurve through the break during the forecast period. There are no significant changes to the guidance since the last advisory, and there are no significant changes to the forecast track either. Data from the SHIPS model suggest that Lorenzo will be in an area of maximum potential intensities of 125-135 kt for the next 3-4 days. This suggests that the rapid intensification should end in the next 6-12 h as the actual intensity approaches those speeds. Fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are expected during the 12-36 h period. The global models suggest that Lorenzo will subsequently interact with an upper-level trough during recurvature, which should cause a period of increased shear and some weakening of the cyclone around 48 h. By 120 h, the hurricane should weaken due to movement over colder water and into strong shear in the mid-latitude westerlies. While its exact ranking will be determined later, Lorenzo is one of the largest and most powerful hurricanes of record for the central tropical Atlantic, with the only comparable hurricane in recent times near there being Gabrielle of 1989. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 15.4N 40.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 16.7N 41.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 20.2N 43.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 43.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 25.2N 43.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 29.0N 41.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 34.0N 37.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Waves for days for east coast surfers. Factoring in swell decay it will not be huge, but some long period groundswell that can be focused at local spots should provide plenty of rideable surf. With the travel distance the long period swell 16+ seconds will have a chance to filter and arrive before the mid period swell. Something you see on the west coast with Southern Hemisphere swells. A rarity for the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: Lol you got one guy saying there hasn't been anything that strong in that part of the atlantic since 1989, and the other guy comes up with a Cane from 2010 that was as strong, and even farther east....what's 21 years among friends right?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 On 9/26/2019 at 12:39 PM, WinterWolf said: Lol you got one guy saying there hasn't been anything that strong in that part of the atlantic since 1989, and the other guy comes up with a Cane from 2010 that was as strong, and even farther east....what's 21 years among friends right?? To be fair, Julia is the most eastern CV hurricane to reach Cat 4 intensity in the Atlantic Basin, however, it pulled this off 10 days earlier, and in comparison to Lorenzo, it was tiny. Julia's far eastern location will likely remain a record for Cat 4 intensity for many years due to how incredibly rare it has been observed in the satellite era. But Lorenzo's period of intensification doesn't appear to be leveling off yet. Lorenzo will likely end up stronger than Julia, though I am not expecting it to reach Cat 5. It will certainly end up being the most intense TC we have observed that far east in the MDR and also during its eventual trek up through the central Atlantic. Julia at peak intensity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 It's been trying awfully hard to close-off a good clear eye - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Holy Moly! Lorenzo has become the beast from the East! Though he won't attain the high-end winds of Dorian this is a sight to behold! A monster cane with very little threat to land, a tracking dream! Been explosive development though he's probably about maxed out. Can't take my eyes off that core. Man I would love to see a radar of that large core! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 It's been trying awfully hard to close-off a good clear eye -Did you quote the wrong post? That blurp by me was from yesterday evening before the new eye took over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Holy Moly! Lorenzo has become the beast from the East! Though he won't attain the high-end winds of Dorian this is a sight to behold! A monster cane with very little threat to land, a tracking dream! Been explosive development though he's probably about maxed out. Can't take my eyes off that core. Man I would love to see a radar of that large core! Looks pretty impressive out there among the other spinnys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Looks like recon had a training mission down to Barbados today. Wonder if it was a re-positioning to try and get some data from Lorenzo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 25 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 30 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: It's been trying awfully hard to close-off a good clear eye - Did you quote the wrong post? That blurp by me was from yesterday evening before the new eye took over. Yikes! I think I did. Meant to basically add to your other post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 ADT continues to increase. Lorenzo's entire CDO includes a band of -70°C or lower cloudtops now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Looks like recon had a training mission down to Barbados today. Wonder if it was a re-positioning to try and get some data from Lorenzo?If that is the case, I hope they plan to head out there this evening. Obviously Lorenzo is not a threat to anything but shipping interests in the short-term (obviously the Azores may come into play), but from a meteorological perspective, Lorenzo is fascinating. It could very well end up surprisingly deep/intense based on recent satellite trends. It would be awesome to sample this hurricane near peak intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Just now, Windspeed said: 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Looks like recon had a training mission down to Barbados today. Wonder if it was a re-positioning to try and get some data from Lorenzo? If that is the case, I hope they plan to head out there this evening. Obviously Lorenzo is not a threat to anything but shipping interests, but from a meteorological perspective, Lorenzo is fascinating. It could very well end up surprisingly deep/intense based on recent satellite trends. It would be awesome to sample this hurricane near peak intensity. Some guidance suggests that it could be a threat to NW Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Some guidance suggests that it could be a threat to NW Europe. I edited my post to mention the Azores (again), but obviously it would be a weaker purely tropical hurricane or at least a weaker baroclinic-forced hurricane versus what it is now. However, thereafter, most modeling had it phasing into a strong Northern Atlantic low in the medium-to-long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: ADT continues to increase. Lorenzo's entire CDO includes a band of -70°C or lower cloudtops now: Where do you find these classic IR images? That's more impressive to me than the new ones. Nostalgic but shows how powerful this storm is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Where do you find these classic IR images? That's more impressive to me than the new ones. Nostalgic but shows how powerful this storm is! Here - https://www.weathernerds.org/home.html (I actually found this recently as I saw folks posting images from it and if you go to the "Custom Satellite Zooms" section here - https://www.weathernerds.org/home.html you can drill down to a region and then a storm, pick the band, and even select the color scheme (including the AVN one that was used in that image). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Where do you find these classic IR images? That's more impressive to me than the new ones. Nostalgic but shows how powerful this storm is!Since NCEP stopped automated posting of GOES products (Himawari products are still being posted at current time) to the older SSD server, weathernerds.org began to use that color scheme as an option for measuring cloudtop temperatures. And yes, I agree, AVN is a valuable tool if not a more scathing one for historical comparison. Anyway, my eyes and empirical obs in general are better suited for 40 years of AVN because that is what I am used too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Just now, Windspeed said: 13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Where do you find these classic IR images? That's more impressive to me than the new ones. Nostalgic but shows how powerful this storm is! Since NCEP stopped automated posting of GOES products (Himawari products are still being posted at current time) to the SSD server, weathernerds.org began to use that color scheme as an option for measuring cloudtop temperatures. And yes, I agree, AVN a valuable tool if not a more scathing one for historical comparison. Anyway, my eyes and empirical obs in general are better suited for 40 years of AVN because that is what I am used too. Yep. I think it got brought up during Michael the appearance of storms today is more severe in some people's eyes due to the new IR images available. The AVN images are hard to beat though from a historical perspective, as you said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Yep. I think it got brought up during Michael the appearance of storms today is more severe in some people's eyes due to the new IR images available. The AVN images are hard to beat though from a historical perspective, as you said.Agreed, and that got brought up because Michael still looked absurd in AVN. I do use both versions of colorized IR though. The new Enhanced IR gives detailed color bands (pinks to whites) in the -80° to -90°s range, which is useful for super intense overshooting tops in mesoconvective systems and volcanic plinian columns that punch through the tropopause. Occasionally you will get a TC in the deep tropics that will cool to that range. But it is otherwise kind of overkill for TCs and certainly not as useful as a comparative tool to past TCs. -70°C reds to -80° dark color band is a perfectly fine cap on AVN. Unfortunately I find the -60° to -70°s color bands much too dark on the new Enhanced IRs. It does make TCs in general look stronger if you were accustomed to AVN all these years. But now we have access to both colorized IRs, so whatever, it's all good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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